El Niño has begun, a phenomenon that could have a significantly greater effect this year

(Patria) - Meteorologists warn that El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon that affects weather patterns worldwide, has officially begun and could bring a new wave of extreme weather events, agricultural disruptions, and record-high temperatures.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that conditions characteristic of El Niño have been recorded in the tropical Pacific Ocean, following a sharp rise in sea surface temperatures in recent months.

Many climate models suggest that this event could develop into a so-called "super El Niño," one of the strongest on record since modern measurements began.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts about a year. During this period, surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean warm, affecting rainfall patterns, temperatures, and weather conditions worldwide.

Its opposite is La Niña, the cooler phase of the same climate cycle.

According to NOAA data, sea surface temperatures in a key part of the Pacific have already exceeded the threshold of 0.5 degrees Celsius above average, which is considered the official start of El Niño.

Fueled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, El Niño conditions are developing and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns.

Here's what you need to know. pic.twitter.com/VpymBUZLy5

— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) June 4, 2026

Forecasts indicating the exceptional strength of this phenomenon are drawing particular attention from scientists.

A strong El Niño is defined when sea temperatures exceed the average by more than 1.5 degrees, while values greater than two degrees are considered a very strong event.

According to the latest NOAA forecast, there is a 63 percent probability that El Niño will become one of the strongest ever recorded between November and January.

The strongest El Niño events in modern history occurred in 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16.

Some US and European meteorological models even predict that temperatures in the tropical Pacific could be more than three degrees above average by the end of the year.

El Niño is born! Destined to be the biggest in 150 years +??
NOAA declares: El Niño Advisory
This morning conditions in the Eastern Pacific met the criteria for El Niño. This means Sea Surface Temps reached a certain level above normal, and the ocean and atmosphere “coupled”… pic.twitter.com/PVEznho0KR

— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) June 11, 2026

Scientists warn that this El Niño is occurring at a time when the planet is already significantly warmed due to human-induced climate change.

"We must seriously worry about the consequences. The current El Niño comes on top of significant global warming, meaning temperatures in affected regions could reach unprecedented levels," said Professor Adam Scaife from the UK Met Office, as reported by BBC.

A very strong El Niño typically raises the average global air temperature by about 0.2 degrees Celsius, releasing heat from the ocean into the atmosphere.

Experts believe that 2027 could become a new candidate for the hottest year on record.

Where will the consequences be most pronounced?

Although no two El Niños are exactly the same, certain patterns recur regularly.

Floods are common in northern Peru and southern Ecuador, and there is an increased risk of heavy rainfall in parts of East Africa, Central Asia, and the southern United States.

At the same time, the risk of droughts and wildfires increases in Australia, Indonesia, and northern parts of South America, which could seriously impact agriculture and global food supplies.