GAS, RUBLES AND PUTIN: Russian Roulette with European Citizens

SARAJEVO, (Patria) - Tomorrow is March 31, the deadline set by Russia for "hostile" countries to exchange dollars and euros for rubles when paying for Russian gas.

All "hostile" countries have refused to pay for gas in Russian rubles because, in addition to the contractual provisions that would be violated, this is also a matter of morality, as the EU itself would be violating its sanctions decisions imposed on Moscow.

Nervousness and uncertainty prevail throughout the EU, given that no one can assess what will happen after March 31.

Almir Bečarević, an expert in gas procurement and former director of BH-Gas, points out that all announcements about abandoning Russian gas this year are falling apart, because in this energy struggle, Moscow has not left everything to chance either.

"European gas storage facilities are empty, Gazprom's gas storage facilities across Europe are empty, and everyone is aware of this now. Europe is asking gas storage operators to fill the storage facilities with gas to 80% capacity by the heating season, but everyone knows that without Russian gas this year, it is almost impossible. Initially, it was requested that the capacity be at 90%, which was then reduced to 80%," Bečarević points out.

All buyers of gas from Gazprom, which is almost 45% of Europe, will make their payments in dollars or euros, and this was certainly done for the February bills, which had to be paid by the end of March.

"This does not comply with Moscow's request that all gas payments, especially from the EU, be in rubles, and now we are coming to a turning point in the supply of Russian gas to Europe. There are only two options left: either a cutoff of gas supplies to "hostile" countries or a postponement of the decision to pay for gas in rubles," Bečarević notes.

According to all statements from Moscow, there can be no compromise on payment in rubles, and therefore the end of this quarter is awaited with trepidation in all European countries.

"Gas storage facilities are almost empty (filling level approx. 25%), a cold weather wave is coming, decisions by both the EU and G7 are that there will be no payment for gas in rubles, and now the decision is in the hands of only one man. Putin decides, either rubles or turning off the valve, or perhaps postponing the decision until the contracts on the method of payment with Gazprom's gas buyers are changed," Bečarević explains.

The first of April should be the day of Russia's most important energy decision and the day when Europe could be left without Russian gas with unforeseeable consequences.

"In addition to this, it should be emphasized that Europe is also facing an increase in the Russian natural gas price, which by summer will be at the level of $500, according to the old formula, or approx. $800 according to the new formula for calculating gas prices. These are dramatically higher gas prices because just a year ago, Russian gas was only $200.

That cheap gas from storage facilities has been consumed this heating season, and the increase in Russian gas prices has been partly compensated. Now, storage facilities need to be filled at enormously high gas prices, so storage facilities and gas traders are looking for guarantees as to whom they will sell that gas if they fill them. Gazprom has intentionally emptied its storage facilities in Europe, and now they don't have to fill them because it is more profitable to sell gas directly. The next 48 hours will be decisive regarding gas supply, as one side must yield, and one hopes it will be Moscow, because cutting off gas to Europe, as announced by G. Peskov, would be dramatic for both those who would turn off the valves and those who would be left without gas by that cutoff," warns Bečarević.