Pax Americana Today: From Global Guardian to Transactional Hegemon

For NAP write: Prof. Dr. Hazim Bašić, Dr. Sci. Haris Muhić

Pax Americana, as we knew it from 1945, no longer exists in its original form. The system was based on a balance between American interests and the collective security of allies. For small and medium-sized states, this system was acceptable because it limited chaos in international relations. However, today's order, due to the change in American strategy, is shifting from 'leadership through rules' to 'domination through pressure'.

Key Global Changes

Loss of Moral Compass and Double Standards. The biggest blow to stability is not just military, but moral. The unconditional American support for military operations in the Middle East, which European allies see as a violation of international law and a humanitarian catastrophe in Palestine, Lebanon, and Iran, has created a civilizational gap. When the US ignores universal norms to ensure Israel's dominance, it loses the right to demand those same norms from rivals like China or Russia.

Territorial and Resource Appetites. Claims over strategic areas like Greenland and the Arctic signal that the US no longer sees allies as sovereign partners, but as possessors of resources to be controlled. This turns traditionally good relations with Europe into a relationship of tension and distrust.

Energy and Military Control. The strategy of neutralizing regional actors (like Iran) serves not only to pacify the region but to ensure absolute control over energy flows and sea routes. The goal is not peace that includes everyone, but 'peace on American terms,' where military superiority is used as a tool for economic blackmail.

These processes have created a rift within the West and forced the EU to re-evaluate its own position. Instead of a unified Western bloc, we are witnessing a world where allies are distancing themselves from Washington to avoid bearing historical and legal responsibility for actions they do not see as contributing to peace, but as a force aimed at maintaining dominance.

Trump's Contribution to Weakening Pax Americana

Donald Trump's contribution to weakening or redefining Pax Americana represents a shift from liberal democracy to 'transactional nationalism.' While Pax Americana rested on stable institutions and predictable alliances, Trump's approach focuses on economic gains and bilateral pressures. His slogan 'America First' began the erosion of multilateralism and alliances, threatening the key pillars of the existing order.

The first step was withdrawal from international organizations. In early 2026, the Trump administration announced its withdrawal from 66 international organizations, thereby weakening American soft power and leaving space for others (like China) to shape global norms.

Trump's new approach to NATO is also transactional, with further support conditioned on allies' military spending. This has created a sense of insecurity in Europe, prompting EU leaders to seek greater military independence, which in the long run reduces the US's influence as the sole security guarantor.

Pax Americana was built on free trade, while Trump ushered in an era of aggressive tariffs and trade wars. The increase in effective tariffs, which at one point in 2025 reached extreme values (before court interventions), disrupted the stability of global supply chains. By disregarding the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in favor of bilateral pressures, Trump undermined the system that the US once used to expand its economic influence.

Instead of global presence based on values, his interventionism in the Western Hemisphere was demonstrated in Latin America (Venezuela), reminiscent of an expanded Monroe Doctrine.

His desire for quick conflict resolution (like the one in Ukraine) through direct deals with major powers (like Russia) suggests a return to 'great power' politics, where the interests of smaller states become secondary. Trump continues to use American military force (e.g., airstrikes in Nigeria or against the Houthis), but without consulting allies. This weakens Pax Americana by destroying the legitimacy of American leadership. On the other hand, supporters of the MAGA movement believe he is saving American power by ceasing to pay the bills for maintaining global peace from which others benefit more.

When Stability Becomes a Commodity

The weakening of Pax Americana is perhaps most evident in the disappearance of predictability, which for decades was its most valuable characteristic. While the earlier system offered global stability in exchange for loyalty to the United States, Trump offers transactional arrangements that can change overnight. In such a framework, the US ceases to be a beacon of the liberal order, and the global order loses its ideological center of gravity. The market of power dominates over the community of values.

Pax Americana is not collapsing because it has become 'too expensive' for allies, but because it no longer offers a clear relationship between cost and benefit. Allies have accepted American leadership for decades not only for security guarantees but also for access to a stable, normatively grounded order. When that normative dimension weakens, only naked calculation remains, and that inevitably leads to diversification of partnerships.

In this sense, Trump is not the cause as much as a catalyst. His policies are accelerating the transition from a hierarchical to a multipolar world, but this process stems from deeper changes: the rise of China, the erosion of the liberal consensus in the West, and fatigue with interventionism. In doing so, America is not only losing allies but the very core of what made it a global leader, which is the ability to unite the world around common values.