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The Trade Union Organization of the Federal Statistical Office has sent warnings to several domestic and foreign addresses that the "compromise" between Prime Minister Denis Zvizdić and Fadil Novalić regarding dual answers to the European Commission's Questionnaire – specifically in the part concerning the population census in RS – is unequivocally a criminal offense.
Namely, when answering the European Commission's Questionnaire, the authorities could not reach a compromise on which data to use in response to question "3b – Population by sex, age and region". As things stand, the Council of Ministers intends to answer this question with two sets of data towards Brussels: one with data published by the Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina – which are recognized as such by relevant international institutions – and another with unrecognized and irrelevant data published by the Statistical Office of the BiH entity of Republika Srpska. Instead of an answer, Zvizdić is sending dilemmas to the European Commission.
Zvizdić and Novalić are counting on the European Commission to reject the Republika Srpska data and accept the state Agency's data. This way, everyone would be satisfied. Brussels, not Sarajevo, would throw down the gauntlet to Dodik.
According to the results of the population census, BiH has a total of 3,531,159 inhabitants. The FBiH entity has 2,219,220 inhabitants, Republika Srpska has 1,228,423 inhabitants, while Brčko District has 83,516 inhabitants. By ethnicity, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 50.11% are Bosniaks, 30.78% are Serbs, 15.43% are Croats, and 0.77% of the population did not declare their ethnicity.
According to data published by the RS Statistical Office in December 2016, there are a total of 1,170,342 inhabitants in this entity. Compared to the recognized Census, this is 58,081 fewer inhabitants.
The Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina confirmed the census data of the state Agency for Statistics and rejected the entity data.
Any non-compliance with the Constitutional Court's decision is a criminal offense, according to Article 239 of the Criminal Code of Bosnia and Herzegovina, so Zvizdić and Novalić could be held accountable in the event of recognizing the population census of the BiH entity of Republika Srpska.
However, there is a more significant issue than the criminal liability of the SDA prime ministers. If the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina puts its signature on the Questionnaire in which dual answers regarding the population census are sent to Brussels, i.e., both state and RS data, it means that the state is legalizing Dodik's unconstitutional population census.
Is this bringing Republika Srpska one step closer to disassociation?
Here's what wise people say about the consequences that dual answers to the European Questionnaire could have for Bosnia and Herzegovina itself.
Dr. Ciril Ribičić, in his book "Genesis of an Illusion – Constitutional-Legal Analysis of the Disappearance and Activity of the Croatian Community of Herceg-Bosna," explains that the basic "elements that define a state are: territory, population, and (sovereign) power."
Republika Srpska has territory and power. If the state recognizes the entity's population census and sends it to the European Commission as an official document, a strong premise for the peaceful secession of the BiH entity of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina will be created.
Why are Zvizdić and Novalić compromising on an exact science? Everywhere in the world, statistical agencies are the third pillar of modern society, right after the president and prime minister of a state. BiH authorities are probably the only ones in the world negotiating about mathematics.
Even if we exclude the possibility of RS disassociation, recognizing the Republika Srpska population census would create chaos in the country. It would mean a complete redistribution of public revenues, changes in voter lists, and hundreds of other unnecessary problems for the state.
The opposition must act statesmanlike at this moment. The Parliament of Bosnia and Herzegovina can stop the sending of answers to the European Commission as planned. If concrete steps are not taken today, the opposition will also be an accomplice in one of the biggest post-war blows to Bosnia and Herzegovina.
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