
SARAJEVO, (Patria) - Vladimir Putin is interested in a new war/crisis hotspot in Europe, in order to turn the West's attention away from Ukraine.
He is working on this with all his might and has several allies in the Balkans, warns Adelheid Wolfl in an article for Neue Zurche Zeitung.
In this influential Swiss newspaper, she writes about the activities of the Russian president's allies in the Balkans - from Viktor Orban and Rumen Radev, the Prime Minister of Hungary and the President of Romania, to Aleksandar Vučić and Zoran Milanović - the presidents of Serbia and Croatia.
The key pyromaniac in the Western Balkans for Wolfl is Milorad Dodik.
He enjoys unlimited Russian support, frequently meets with Sergey Lavrov and Vladimir Putin, and does everything he can to partition Bosnia and Herzegovina.
As proof of Russian support, Wolfl states that the Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Igor Kalabukhov, is always by his side, and there are (often) the notorious remnants of the Russian paramilitary mercenary formation Wagner.
They, according to Wolfl in the article for NZZ, trained police officers of the RS entity, and some of her sources claim they are still in Banja Luka.
"Fear of war has spread through Bosnia and Herzegovina, the conflict between Kosovars and Serbs is simmering again, the reform government in Bulgaria has fallen, partly because it supported the EU's tough line against Russia. However, BiH, with elections in October, emerges as a particularly vulnerable spot on this risk map.
Political observers and military strategists fear that Dodik will declare the independence of the RS and that Putin could recognize the RS as a separate state, similar to the Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine, and sign a military assistance pact with Dodik.
In this way, the Kremlin could create a problematic point in Europe that would occupy the EU and NATO and divert them from Ukraine.
In short, Russia wants a fire in the Balkans, and Dodik is said to be a pyromaniac," writes Wolfl.
She quotes Bosnian security expert Ismet Fatih Čančar from the NATO Defense College in Rome, who warns that Dodik's activities must be taken seriously.
Čančar strongly advocates for BiH's accelerated membership in NATO.
"The mistake that NATO made with Ukraine, when it promised membership for years but did not take steps to make it happen, should not be repeated," the journalist reports his words.
Wolfl also draws attention to the planned construction of a large military airport near Trebinje, not far from the border with Croatia and the city of Dubrovnik.
Large Russian military aircraft could also land on the long runway of the Trebinje airport.
"Given Russian influence in Serbia and the RS, this would de facto push Russia's breakthrough to the sea," explains Čančar.
"Russia is fanning the flames of secessionism, and pro-Kremlin Serbs and Croats want to destroy BiH by declaring their own independent states," Wolfl further writes.
She points out that Dodik has a firm alliance with Dragan Čović, the president of HDZ BiH, who "constantly threatens 'institutional and territorial reorganization' of the state - that is, the creation of a third 'Croatian' part of the state, and thus the disintegration of the country," reports politički.ba
Like Dodik, Čović is supported by Moscow.
His HDZ voted last spring against BiH joining the EU sanctions imposed on the Kremlin for the aggression against Ukraine.
Čović is helped by Croatian President Milanović.
"Zoki" – as Milanović is known – not only stands out as an advocate for Putin in the EU ("Russia is indestructible"), but is increasingly interfering in Bosnia's internal politics. For Bosnia and Herzegovina, a civic state is a "distant dream" and the rights of Croats must first be improved, he said. 'First soap, then perfume,'" Wolfl quotes the Croatian president in the article for NZZ.
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