MAP between NATO's Tallinn Condition and Banja Luka's Ultimatum

By Muharem Cero

The play that Mladen Ivanić, present but less visible, and Milorad Dodik, absent but much more visible, staged yesterday in Brussels at the European headquarters of NATO confirmed one fact - there is no difference between Dodik's clear 'no' and Ivanić's 'yes, but'.  

The latest NATO condition for activating Bosnia and Herzegovina's NATO path has been pending for almost eight years. Unfortunately, Bosnia and Herzegovina has not managed to register and record the property necessary for the MAP path within this timeframe. Only squeezed by economic problems and aware that its path to the EU and the much-needed IMF loan are tied to the activation of MAP, it decided to play the game that took place in Brussels yesterday. 

An uncoordinated Mladen Ivanić confirmed what is known to everyone, and that is that the Republika Srpska, for reasons known to itself, is not ready to register military property on its territory to the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina for the sake of the NATO path, with the right of use by the Armed Forces of BiH.

It is clear that Ivanić's statement yesterday was well coordinated with Milorad Dodik. Dodik, in his characteristic, populist, and late-spring migraine-induced manner, was explicit. He clearly stated that RS is not only unwilling to join BiH's NATO path but is also not prepared to register BiH's military property on its territory in favor of BiH. 

Two things lie behind such a response. First, the issue of military property is most directly linked to resolving the status of all state property of Bosnia and Herzegovina. RS has been clear about this for a long time. With his claim that territory is equal to ownership of territory, Milorad Dodik continues to unconstitutionally try to change the constitutional and legal character of Dayton's BiH.

Following Čosić-type instructions, he tries to interpret Bosnia and Herzegovina as a confederation, or a state union, which encourages him for further secession of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The second reason for this move by Dodik, to which Mladen Ivanić strongly belongs, is their still unresolved dilemma about which path 'Bosnian Serbdom' should take - Mother Russia or the Western democratic world.

The play staged in Brussels will, of course, not yield results regarding NATO structures, because they make it clear that only the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina can enter MAP and NATO, not its administrative arrangements or entities. It is hard to believe, but not impossible, that domestic political players will fall for the cunning trick of the Ivanić-Dodik duo. 

However, it remains unclear, based on what knowledge or facts, Denis Zvizdić continues to spread optimism about MAP by the end of this year or the beginning of 2018, despite Ivanić's statements. If this optimism is unfounded, which it is, then it is just part of the pre-election folklore of Bosnian-Herzegovinian political players.

Any potential entry into MAP under a model of asymmetrical ownership of military property threatens the realization of the Cyprus scenario on Bosnian-Herzegovinian sovereignty.

It is expected that the scenario from Banja Luka restaurants will not happen and that the international community, as well as Zvizdić and domestic political players, will understand all the dangers of these traps and insist on the realization of the Tallinn condition of registering all 58 military locations to their owner, the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Although, in the disturbed reality of BiH, never say never.