Liberal Mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski leads in Polish presidential election

(Patria) - Liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski achieved a narrow victory in the Polish presidential election, according to an exit poll, but a second round will be needed with conservative historian Karol Nawrocki to decide the next president, the BBC reported.

According to the poll released after voting closed, Trzaskowski, deputy leader of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist Civic Platform (PO) party, won 30.8% of the vote. Nawrocki was second with 29.1% of the vote.

If the final official result of the poll confirms the results, which are not expected until late on Monday, Trzaskowski and Nawrocki will compete in a second round on June 1, as none of the thirteen candidates secured more than 50% of the vote.

Trzaskowski told supporters at a rally in Sandomierz, southern Poland: “We will win.” But he said it would take a lot of work and “great determination.”

He promised to cooperate with Prime Minister Tusk’s coalition to liberalise the strict abortion law and speed up reform of Poland’s judiciary, which was considered to have been politicised by the previous Law and Justice (PiS) led government.

Trzaskowski performed worse than pre-vote opinion polls had predicted, which put him between four and six percentage points ahead of Nawrocki.

The Polish president has largely ceremonial powers but can veto government laws. Tusk’s coalition does not have a large enough parliamentary majority to override a presidential veto. Tusk has failed to deliver many of his election promises, partly because the incumbent conservative president Andrzej Duda vetoed government laws, but also because of divisions within the coalition over issues such as abortion and civil partnerships. A Trzaskowski victory would remove the presidential veto, but Nawrocki would likely be an even bigger obstacle than Duda.

Nawrocki told supporters in Gdansk that Tusk should be prevented from gaining full power. He called on supporters of the two far-right candidates, Slawomir Mentzen, who was third with 15.4%, and Grzegorz Braun, who was fourth with 6.2%, to “save Poland” from Tusk.

Nawrocki was unknown at national level before being chosen as candidate by PiS. Trzaskowski needs the votes of supporters of his centrist party, but also those who support candidates from younger coalition partners, the Left (Magdalena Biejat) and the conservative Third Way (Szymon Holownia). Another concern for Trzaskowski is the better-than-expected result of the far-right candidates as many of their supporters will not vote for him. Mentzen’s result continues the growth of his far-right Confederation party since it entered parliament in 2019.

Who will Mentzen’s supporters, mostly young voters, back in the second round of the election? Many would back Nawrocki due to his Catholic, family-oriented views, but they dislike PiS’s left-wing economic policies which include generous state benefits.

Mentzen is an anti-establishment candidate, and some of his supporters may not want to vote for either Nawrocki or Trzaskowski, who represent the two parties that have dominated Polish politics for two decades.

The result of far-right MEP Grzegorz Braun was an uncomfortable surprise for Polish liberal voters.

He made headlines in 2023 when he extinguished candles on a menorah in Poland’s parliament with a fire extinguisher during a ceremony for the Hanukkah holiday. He called the holiday “satanic”. During a presidential debate last month, he said: “Jews have too much influence on Polish affairs.”