Lebanon and Israel at a historic turning point: Economy driving change

By Armin Sijamić / NAP

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In recent years, news from Lebanon has mostly been about the major political, economic and security problems shaking the country. Millions of Syrian refugees, inflation, economic crisis, and constant conflicts between Hezbollah and Israel are just some of the
challenges for the authorities there. On top of that, the political community there, very often tied to the interests of foreign powers, has not been able to form a stable government. In recent days, an opportunity has opened up for some of these problems to soon become a thing of the past.

The Lebanese crisis has not been a major news story in the world media for years, but that does not mean its intensity has lessened or that major powers are not paying attention to this country. It often seems that foreign interference in that country has done more harm than good, although it is clear to everyone that Lebanon needs outside help to resolve, among other things, problems over which they had no influence. For example, the war in Syria has burdened Lebanon in every respect. Millions of people sought refuge in the neighboring poor and unstable country, while Lebanon sank into an economic and political crisis caused by the inability of domestic actors to reach an agreement and the interference of foreign powers.

Neighboring Israel has also been a place of conflict and political turmoil for years, but its economy and diplomacy are incomparably stronger than those of Lebanon and other neighboring countries, which ultimately eases their situation. However, the policy of constant conflict is not a solution, and even those forces in Israel that refuse any concessions to their neighbors are increasingly aware of this. The last major clash between the Israeli army and Hamas in May last year, which was seen as a victory by Gaza and Iran, paralyzed Israel and brought enormous problems across the country. In fifteen days of war, the strengthened Hamas, like never before, hit Israeli army positions, airports, settlements, factories, highways, oil processing plants...

Ultimately, the new destruction of Gaza was not a comforting reward for the Israeli "hawks" who want war, because Israel suffered major blows in the military, economic, and political spheres in general, as it also suffered a defeat on a moral level, as formulated at the time by influential Israeli author Donniel Hartman. The conflict, moreover, significantly slowed down the opportunity for reconciliation with Arab neighbors, of which former US President Donald Trump was the architect, within the framework of the Abraham Accords. 

Since that conflict, many analysts have raised the question of how much damage the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah, which is incomparably stronger than Hamas and with incomparably greater resources (human and material), could inflict on Israel as long as Bashar al-Assad remains in power in Damascus. The experience of the 2006 war with Hezbollah was a sufficient warning to Israel to look at some things from a different perspective. The border dispute between Israel and Lebanon is one such issue.

For decades, Israel has not paid much attention to the stance of Lebanon, with which it is technically at war and without an agreement on the land border. But even that attitude has changed, faced with a new reality on the ground and an opportunity that has opened up for both sides. Namely, scientists have discovered huge natural gas deposits off the coasts of Israel and Lebanon. According to 2012 estimates, the amount is 25.4 trillion cubic meters of gas in the surveyed part of the disputed territory alone. 

 Israel and Lebanon laid claim to this deposit, shifting the imaginary demarcation line as it suited them within the disputed 860 square kilometers of the Mediterranean Sea. Israel threatened to protect its borders with the army, and Hezbollah announced that it would not give up an inch of Lebanese territory and threatened strikes against anyone who exploited Lebanese gas without Tripoli's permission. By doing what the weak Lebanese army could not, Hezbollah then scored new points on the domestic political scene.

The US enters the scene

The suppression of Hezbollah from social and political life in Lebanon has failed for now, although the United States, France, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, which supports Sunni forces in the country, have tried. Plan B, which in normal circumstances would be Plan A,
involved acknowledging the fact that Shiites are an indispensable part of the distribution of political power in Lebanon and that Hezbollah is the strongest Shiite party in the country, and that one should "turn a blind eye" to the presence of this movement in order to reach an agreement with official Tripoli, headed by Christian President Michel Aoun, himself a close ally of Hezbollah. American negotiators succeeded in convincing Lebanon and Israel to demarcate the maritime border in a way that satisfies both sides, which could be another important geostrategic victory for the administration of Joseph Biden.

Aoun stated that the "agreement fulfills all Lebanese demands" after reviewing the proposed document with Sunni Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Shiite Nabih Berri, who heads the parliament. Biden emphasized that both sides have agreed to end the border dispute. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken assessed that the agreement is good for the prosperity and security of Lebanon and Israel. The chief US negotiator and mediator of this agreement, Amos Hochstein, stated that this is "the first time in a long time that Lebanon is part of the solution, not part of the problem." The majority in the Israeli coalition government has supported the agreement, but a final agreement requires confirmation from the Knesset, where a debate will be held on it in the next two weeks.

A chance for Lebanon, Israel, and Europe

 For years, there has been talk about the benefits that the exploitation of natural gas would bring to Lebanon. The conclusions were similar to those that apply to all small, energy-rich countries in the Middle East. In a time of high energy prices, an opportunity has arisen to fill the empty Lebanese treasury in record time and pull the country out of the economic crisis. The agreement could also bring political stability to the country. Lebanese authorities have already established cooperation with the French company Total, and preparations are underway to begin work on this huge energy project. On Friday, Qatar also announced its interest in this deal. Earlier, the Italian company ENI and the Russian company Novatek, which withdrew its offer last month, expressed interest. 

Israel would receive part of the proceeds from sales as compensation for the gas extracted from their side of the border line. According to Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, the country would receive "approximately 17 percent" of the revenue. Furthermore, Israel would reduce the chances of conflict with
Hezbollah, which, in the event of a bloody and costly war, would further complicate relations with neighboring countries with which the Jewish state is trying to reach a sustainable agreement. In a geostrategic sense, the agreement could mean more than what has been stated, because Israel would gradually become an important energy hub. Namely, Israel already sells LNG to European countries through terminals in Egypt, and it is not excluded that Lebanese gas could also be shipped to Europe in the same way. Thus, in the coming years, Israel could become an important address for the energy stability of Europe and the world, thereby strengthening its political and economic positions.

The agreement, which will be decided in the Knesset in the coming days, is also important for the European Union, which is trying to free itself from dependence on Russian gas and oil. The resources on its doorstep, located off the coast of Cyprus, are a strategic opportunity for Brussels to obtain a secure and stable source of this important energy commodity in its neighborhood. That is why the negotiations between Lebanon and Israel have been supported for years by many Western countries, especially the US, which expects letters from Lebanon and Israel stating that the agreement has been accepted by the bodies in those countries, making the agreement valid. 

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