Far-right and conservatives win in Bavaria and Hesse, poor result for ruling coalition

Voters on Sunday delivered a sharp rebuke to Chancellor Olaf Scholz's centre-left
coalition parties in key states of Bavaria and Hesse, Reuters reported.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party achieved its best ever result in the western state, in Hesse, coming second in both states.

All three parties in Scholz's federal coalition, his Social Democrats, the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP), fared worse than five years ago in the states which together make up about a quarter of Germany's population. The FDP was on track to miss the 5% threshold to enter parliament in Bavaria, and possibly in Hesse too.

Analysts said this further fuelled tensions in a coalition struggling to find common ground, with Scholz accused of failing to show leadership in imposing order and tackling crises, from the war in Ukraine to the green transition.

"If necessary, the FDP must be prepared to leave the coalition," said Thomas Kemmerich, the FDP's leader in the eastern state of Thuringia which holds its own election next year, German media outlet The Pioneer quoted him as saying.

"This cannot be a taboo," he added. Jens Spahn, a senior lawmaker of the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), said it was rare for a government to receive such a comprehensive blow.

"And it was rarely so clear: whether it is about migration, the economy or climate policy, people want a different policy," he said.

In Hesse, home to the glittering towers of the financial capital Frankfurt, the CDU was forecast to win 34.6% of the vote in the state parliament, likely allowing it to govern for another term, projections by public broadcaster ARD showed.

The SPD's 15.1%, a drop of 4.7% from its 2018 results, was a personal blow to Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, whose campaign to lead the state was dogged by criticism over rising illegal immigration. The far-left Die Linke party's failure to reach the 5% threshold needed to remain in the state parliament in Hesse contributed to the shift to the right.

The CDU's sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), which has governed Bavaria since 1957,
was forecast to win 36.4% of the vote in the state - its worst result since 1950, although only a fraction below its 2018 showing.

This would likely weaken the potential claim of CSU leader Markus Soeder to be the conservatives' chancellor candidate ahead of the 2025 federal election, analysts said. The CSU is expected to continue its coalition with the populist Free Voters on 15.3%. They and the AfD were the only parties to make gains in the Bavarian election.

The AfD was on track for 18.6% in Hesse and 16% in Bavaria, compared with 13.1%
and 11.6% in 2018 respectively, confirming the political clout of the party created just 10 years ago.

The nationalist, anti-immigrant AfD is currently second nationwide, up from fifth place in the 2021 election, a shift that could make it harder for Germany to form stable majorities given that other parties refuse to work with it.

The popularity of Scholz's government remains at its lowest since it took office in December 2021, according to an ARD-Deutschland Trend poll, with four out of five Germans dissatisfied with its performance.