Kožljak: It wasn't Russia that won, the EU and US remain engaged in BiH and the NATO path continues

By Ernad Metaj

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Regardless of the quarrel in the UN between the West and Russia, the EU and NATO remain engaged in BiH, and according to Alija Kožljak, Head of the Department for International Relations and European Studies at IBU and former BiH military representative to NATO, this is the most important epilogue of the "agreement" by which the mention of the High Representative in BiH was removed from the Resolution on EUFOR. Yesterday's consultations in the UN Security Council regarding BiH are, as Kožljak says, just the tip of the iceberg reflecting the months-long direct competition between the Russian Federation and the West over control of the Western Balkans region. In this regard, the discussion on extending the executive mandate of EUFOR should be viewed in that context. Also, what is very important to emphasize is the format in which these issues are discussed, which is the UN Security Council, where the Russian Federation can veto and block any decision, including the extension of the ALTHEA mission.

- The announced draft resolution, which extends the mandate of EUFOR, would confirm that the first battle has been won. We should not forget that just a few weeks ago, the RF expressed serious opposition to the continuation of this mission, so the aforementioned development would have both symbolic and practical significance. First, the continuity of EU engagement in Bosnia and Herzegovina would be ensured, its credibility confirmed, and thus the EU's responsibility for BiH further emphasized; second, the perception of stability and security of BiH would be ensured, and the continuation of reform processes enabled, Kožljak pointed out.

Regardless of the disappointment of some of the public who expected the West to remain firm at the cost of a veto on the extension of the EUFOR mission and send NATO troops to BiH instead, their possible engagement will not be challenged by the Resolution.

- What is important to emphasize is the fact that extending the EUFOR mission does not diminish NATO's engagement. The 2004 Resolution is still in force and will likely be confirmed by today's UN resolution, which allows NATO to deploy its more robust forces at any moment, regardless of the presence of EUFOR, if the situation so requires, Kožljak believes.

The fact that the BiH Council of Ministers will start working and that the 2021 Reform Program, through which BiH demonstrates its commitment to approaching NATO, is on the agenda could indicate that something is happening behind the scenes. Even if the Chairman of the Council of Ministers schedules a session to reject the Reform Program, it will not significantly affect NATO's perception of BiH. The Program should have been submitted to Brussels long ago, and the Ministry of Defense believes that NATO knows exactly what the problem is. With his anti-state activities, the SNSD leader has slowed down BiH's path to NATO, but he has not stopped it.

- What is not present in the public is the fact that a large number of the aforementioned activities are being realized even now, regardless of the fact that the Reform Program has not been submitted, so BiH's NATO integration process has not been stopped. Mr. Dodik has currently slowed it down, but he cannot stop it, therefore, it cannot be spoken of as his victory at all. There will be more battles, including those concerning the role of the OHR in BiH, the Election Law, the implementation of sanctions, the role of neighboring countries, forests, so it is unrealistic to expect a resolution of the situation in one go, or in one session, Kožljak believes.

Our interlocutor is convinced that the US will intensify its activities regarding BiH in the coming days, primarily through the arrival of Special Envoy for the Western Balkans Gabriel Escobar. After that, clearer signals can be expected as to whether the work of institutions and reform processes will be unblocked.