Climate change could be as deadly as cancer in some parts of the world

(Patria) - According to the new Human Climate Horizons platform launched by the United Nations Development Programme and the Climate Impact Lab, without decisive and urgent action, climate change will worsen inequalities and deepen the human development gap. The platform, created to empower people and decision-makers, shows what climate change could mean for people's lives through changes in mortality, livelihood earning capacity, and energy use.

For example, in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, under a very high emissions scenario, the additional number of deaths due to climate change by 2100 (132 per 100,000 people annually) would be nearly double the current annual death rate from cancer in Bangladesh, and 10 times higher than the annual number of road traffic deaths.

A comparison of the health impacts of climate change among countries points to a future where current inequalities are amplified: among G20 countries – which account for the majority of cumulative CO2 emissions – a third will face additional death rates due to climate change. But this rises to nearly three-quarters of the least developed countries, dramatically increasing inequalities in the coming decades.

“In 2022, communities in every corner of the world are witnessing a climate emergency that is hitting much faster and harder than predicted, representing both a threat to our future and a very real risk that must be addressed here and now,” said UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner. “By focusing on the effects of climate change on issues such as mortality, labour, and energy use, this new platform puts vital data and analytics into the hands of policymakers, helping countries take climate action where it is most needed. For example, the platform shows that stronger global efforts towards the goals of the Paris Agreement could reduce projected mortality from extreme heat in 2100 by more than 80%, saving tens of millions of lives.”

The new data also shows that climate change will increase inequalities within countries. For example, in Barranquilla, a port city in northern Colombia, under a very high emissions scenario, the additional death rate by 2100 due to warmer temperatures (37 people per 100,000 annually) is five times higher than the current death rate from breast cancer in Colombia. This would widen the gap in the death rate due to climate change compared to the capital, Bogotá.

“The Climate Impact Lab combines global data, big data analytics, and detailed climate models to estimate the costs of climate change – and the benefits of reducing emissions. Based on solid research, it shows how future climate change impacts disproportionately affect regions that are today the hottest and often the poorest, exacerbating existing inequality,” said Sol Hsiang from the Climate Impact Lab, a professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley. “Fortunately, the world can still change course by aggressively reducing emissions,” Hsiang said.

The new data shows the need for rapid action, not only to mitigate climate change but also to adapt to its consequences. For example, in Faisalabad, Pakistan, even with moderate mitigation, additional deaths due to climate change would average 36 per 100,000 people each year between 2020-2039. Without significantly increased adaptation efforts, Faisalabad could expect the annual death rate from climate change to nearly double, reaching 67 deaths per 100,000 by mid-century. This increase in mortality is almost as high as that from stroke, currently the third leading cause of death in Pakistan.

“As we face the punishing impacts of global climate change, it is easy to wonder whether the efforts of individual countries, states, or cities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions really make a difference. This platform shows the direct role these efforts play in shaping our shared future,” said Hannah Hess from the Climate Impact Lab, associate director at Rhodium Group.

“Projections of the impacts of climate change on human development help us understand what a more dangerous world we are likely to face means for people's lives and their human security. But we must keep in mind that the future is not predetermined,” says Pedro Conceição from the Human Development Report Office. “These hyperlocalised projections empower people to make decisions, from signalling the urgency of reducing emissions, to identifying emerging inequalities in human development, to ultimately helping communities, governments, insurers, and other financial actors to act.”

The new platform is freely available ahead of COP27, and opens access to an evolving stream of research to help inform actions to reduce the unequal effects of rising global greenhouse gas emissions.

About the Human Climate Horizons platform

Human Climate Horizons (HCH) is a data and insights platform that provides localised information on the future impacts of climate change on several dimensions of human development. It is a public good that is open access and scalable digital – a window into a possible future – powered by an evolving stream of multidisciplinary frontier research. It is the result of a joint effort by the Climate Impact Lab and the UNDP Human Development Report Office.

HCH also offers everyone a window into climate change through localised temperature data: users in many cities can explore how much more extreme the climate could become and what that will mean for their future and their children. The estimates are built on expert projections for income and population growth, future greenhouse gas emissions, and simulations from 33 climate models, and are therefore state-of-the-art and freely available. The analysis is rigorous. It has been peer-reviewed and published in top academic journals, including Nature and the Quarterly Journal of Economics. The entire set of projections can be downloaded and will empower researchers and policy analysts to develop their own insights.

Providing hyperlocal coverage for more than 24,000 regions worldwide, two distinct policy scenarios, and a time horizon to the end of the 21st century, the platform provides empirically grounded data on the potential human costs of climate change. Its first release covers the effects of climate change on mortality, labour, and energy use. The modelling will soon cover much more, including the impacts of climate change on coastal communities, food production, and infrastructure damage.