What difference will the US aid package worth $61 billion make in the Russo-Ukrainian war?

(Patria) - For exhausted Ukrainian artillerymen holding back Russian forces near the eastern city of Kupiansk, the US aid package expected to finally pass this week is a lifeline and, potentially, a game-changer, though it may take time, writes VOA.

- Had they pushed it through (earlier), it would have dramatically changed the situation - said one soldier, who added that the lack of shells had reduced their ability to cover infantry, costing lives and territory.

Six months of bickering

After six months of congressional bickering, the $61 billion aid package is now expected to be approved this week by the US Senate and signed by President Joe Biden, replenishing Kyiv's critically low supplies of artillery shells and air defense.

The influx of weapons should improve Kyiv's chances of preventing a major Russian breakthrough in the east, two military analysts, a former Ukrainian defense minister, and a European security official said.

But Kyiv continues to face a shortage of manpower on the battlefield, while questions are being raised about the strength of its fortifications along the large 1,000-kilometer front line ahead of what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said could be a Russian summer offensive.

- The most significant source of Ukrainian weakness is the lack of manpower - believes Konrad Muzyka, director of the military consulting firm Rochan in Poland.

After months of debate, a law signed by Zelenskyy on April 16th comes into effect in May, revising the rules governing how Ukraine mobilizes civilians into the army, aiming to make the process faster, more transparent, and efficient.

- But new recruits will need months of training before they are deployed, which in turn creates a "window of opportunity" for Russia.

I would expect the situation to likely continue to deteriorate over the next three months, but if mobilization goes according to plan and US aid is unblocked, then the situation should improve from autumn onwards - said Muzyka.

Material fatigue

Moscow has had the upper hand on the battlefield since capturing Avdiivka, a long-standing bastion city in the eastern Donbas, in February, and its forces are slowly advancing using a larger number of troops and artillery shells.

They are now falling on the city of Chasiv Yar, located on high ground which, if captured, would bring Moscow closer to the remaining Kyiv-controlled cities of Donbas, Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk.

Zelenskyy said last week that Russia is now capable of firing 10 times more artillery shells than Ukrainian troops. Russian forces outnumber Kyiv's troops in the east by 7-10 times, a Ukrainian general said this month.

Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for Ukraine's military intelligence service, says Moscow is focused on fully capturing the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk - Donbas.

Russia, he added, is attacking there on three fronts - west of Avdiivka, from Kupiansk to Lyman, and west of Bakhmut. In the south, it has been pressuring Robotyne, a village recaptured by Kyiv during last year's offensive, he said.

Ukrainian positions have been hit by thousands of bombs dropped by warplanes this year, taking advantage of Russia's air superiority and Ukraine's dwindling air defense.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk, former Ukrainian defense minister, points out that an influx of ground-based air defense would help, while US-made F-16 fighter jets, which Kyiv expects to receive later this year, will completely push back Russian warplanes.

Replenished artillery shell supplies should reduce the gap in fired shells to a few Russian shells for every Ukrainian one.

We don't need to have one-to-one. Three-to-one would still do the job - he said, citing Kyiv's more "calculating" approach compared to Russia's reliance on quantity.

In addition to US aid, the European Union is providing assistance, including an initiative led by the Czech Republic, which will begin supplying Ukraine with about 300,000 155mm artillery shells, starting in June.

A senior European security source told Reuters that if Ukraine receives new US and EU aid, the probability of it avoiding a major Russian breakthrough in the next 12 months is "quite high".

Massive influx of personnel

The Ukrainian army needed a "massive" influx of personnel to stop Russian forces across the entire front, Muzyka said.

The European security source also said that Ukraine needs to step up its mobilization efforts.

Neither side in the conflict shares official data on its military strength and casualty rates.

Ukrainian Yusov said that Russia, which controls 18% of Ukrainian territory, has between 450,000 and 470,000 ground troops fighting in Ukraine, in addition to 35,000 National Guard members, as well as separate air and naval operations taking place.

Kyiv has said in the past that it has about a million people under arms.

In December, Zelenskyy said his army wanted to mobilize up to half a million new soldiers.

Muzyka pointed out that it is unclear how deep Ukrainian fortifications are. The army says it has been working around the clock to improve them, and Zelenskyy said that construction was 98 percent complete in some areas of the front this month.