Is Syria in the Neighborhood: Western Balkans Demining Strategy

Merkel's conversation with Vučić was the only correct European response to the conflicts in Syria. It was about calming the Western Balkans through direct and open dialogue with the Serbian leader who has evident closeness to Putin's policy. Vučić confirmed this in an interview after returning to Serbia.

After the fierce strikes on Syria, it would be strategically logical from the Russian position to expand the conflict and impose it on American allies in Europe. For now, Europeans are neutral, regardless of France's participation in these strikes. Europe has nevertheless shown restraint and a sensitive attitude towards Russia. The question is how much that will help. In fact, no one knows the planned scale and ultimate goals of this unexpected conflict, in which two great powers are confronting each other, mostly in someone else's country and with someone else's lives.

Warnings for the Balkans have been arriving for days.

American General Wesley Clark first warned in an op-ed published by The Washington Post that the Balkans are on the verge of an explosion.

He called for the West to react urgently and protect the region from what he called the destructive influence of Russia, Turkey, and even China, as well as individuals and organizations recruiting for participation in terrorist organizations.

- To make matters worse, the region suffers from the neglect of powers that were crucial in ending the wars in the former Yugoslavia. Believing that the future of the Balkans lies in EU membership, the US has largely delegated responsibility for the situation in the region to Brussels. But the EU's political inertia has left BiH, Serbia, Kosovo, Macedonia, and Montenegro waiting for too long. And while the US and EU are sleeping, others are acting – Clark warned.

- We have many instruments at our disposal to deter the Balkans from its creeping movement towards instability. Let's ensure that the huge investment we have made in this turbulent region (the success of American policy in peace processes, our note) does not collapse due to our quarrels. We must renew our commitment to the success of the Western Balkans. We must help the fragile democracies of this region reach their full potential – concluded Wesley Clark in his op-ed for The Washington Post.

But yesterday, the 'New York Times' published an analysis stating that the Balkans, the 'cradle of World War I', will become a 'battleground in what appears to be a new cold war'.

Analysts warn that Russia is expanding its influence and increasing inter-ethnic tensions in countries hoping to join the European Union, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and others. Russia's interference has already prompted Brussels to revive its expansion plans, which it had practically put on hold. Furthermore, Washington is once again focusing attention on the risk to its NATO member states in the Balkans, including Croatia.

In a new research paper for the European Council on Foreign Relations, Galeotti writes that 'Russia sees the Balkans as a battlefield in its political war', trying to 'divert attention and create instability'. Charles Kupchan, former director of the Europe department at the National Security Council under President Barack Obama, says that 'the Russians are exploiting the last part of Western Europe that is still politically dysfunctional', a certain bargaining chip with the European Union...

Bosnia and Herzegovina, a country torn apart and then reassembled after the war, remains a fragile construct, burdened by corruption, weak leadership, and ethnic and nationalist tensions among communities, and is essentially a metaphor for the entire Balkans, writes the 'NY Times'.

One of the main focal points that Russia is trying to exploit, Kupchan notes, is the initiative by the President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, to hold a referendum on the independence of that semi-autonomous entity of BiH, the New York Times wrote.

The most effective European response to calm the Balkans has been awaited through European sanctions against Milorad Dodik, the loudest warmonger in Europe. We are still awaiting that response, regardless of the cacophony surrounding these initial strikes and the tensions they have caused in the global public.

In the end, all domestic prominent political and military analysts claim that the strikes on Syria will not affect the Balkans or BiH in any way. We will see how right the analysts are.

Balkan, and especially Bosnian, nonchalance and the unbearable lightness of conclusion can be a very serious brand. This brand operates on the principle of 'how will it be done' – 'it will be done easily'. / S. Omeragić/