Israel on the Eve of Elections: Benjamin Netanyahu's Fight for Survival

Following Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the Likud party (Hebrew for consolidation),'s political failure to form a government after the April elections, Israel is preparing for early elections to be held on September 17.

As a consequence of the country's first historical failure to form a government, the Knesset (Israeli parliament), comprising 120 seats, voted for its dissolution on May 30 and new elections, which is also the first time in history that the Knesset has voted for its own dissolution before forming a government. It is widely believed that this was done to prevent the appointment of Netanyahu's electoral rival, Benny Gantz, as interim prime minister.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister in Israeli history, held his final pre-election cabinet meeting in the Palestinian territories, underscoring his main election message and promise – to extend Israeli sovereignty to the Jordan Valley and Israeli settlements located in the occupied West Bank, thereby confining the Palestinian population to completely isolated enclaves.

The move has been bluntly called an annexation, which Netanyahu claims will give Israel "strategic depth."

The meeting, held amidst the Palestinian territories inhabited by over 2.5 million Palestinians among 600,000 Israeli settlers, is the first meeting of Israeli officials in the official Palestinian territories in 20 years.

Netanyahu announced that he would declare the annexation immediately after the elections, suggesting that his move was approved by his powerful ally, U.S. President Donald Trump, and that he is confident of his electoral victory. Such a message from Netanyahu serves as his strongest election argument, aiming to gain the support of right-wing voters.

Netanyahu, however, only appears confident – he has long been under pressure from the threat of Israel's Attorney General to file indictments against him based on three open cases concerning embezzlement, bribery, and breach of trust, which he claims were fabricated by the left. At the same time, he is confronted by strong electoral rivals, such as the leader of the Blue and White party, which won 26.13% of the votes in the April elections, only 0.33% less than Likud, leading to his political failure in attempting to form a coalition and government.

An equally strong card in Netanyahu's hand, which he unreservedly uses for the upcoming elections, is his friendship with the U.S. president; moreover, the main election poster is a joint photograph of Netanyahu and Trump, which is expected to have a direct and strong impact on voters.

In the days leading up to the elections, Netanyahu sought to further enrich his diplomatic portfolio by visiting British Prime Minister Boris Johnson with extremely short notice when Johnson was under immense stress due to events related to the suspended parliament – all to emphasize his good relations with world leaders and suggest their support, even if it doesn't exist... because a joint photograph does not always mean wholehearted political support.

It is speculated that the election outcome will be similar to that of April, when Netanyahu and former IDF (Israel Defense Forces) Chief of Staff Benny Gantz finished neck and neck. Such an election epilogue would mean a repeat of the post-April agony in Israel, with new coalition attempts being a significant asset in the hands of anyone wishing to block the "almost winner."

Perhaps the best illustration of this claim is the post-April failed coalition between Likud and the secular nationalist party Yisrael Beiteinu (Our Home Israel) of former Minister of Defense, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Deputy Prime Minister Avigdor Lieberman. The inability to agree on mandatory military service for Yeshiva students (advocated by the secular Lieberman) led to Netanyahu's unsuccessful coalition with Lieberman's party and, consequently, the (non)formation of a government.

At the same time, Arab parties in Israel have united into one coalition, potentially becoming a significant force in the Knesset and thus blocking Netanyahu's success.

Netanyahu's political survival depends on the outcome of tomorrow's elections. He likely believes that a new term as prime minister would protect him from trial, as he has previously attempted to secure immunity for himself through the Knesset, as well as approve the proposal of a new law that would prevent the Israeli Supreme Court from revoking his immunity.

The result of the past elections speaks to how divided Israeli society is regarding its leaders and future, while the political landscape is becoming increasingly fragmented in the form of political parties.

How willing the parties will be to form coalitions based on common goals, or conversely, to use the necessity of coalitions against each other – remains to be seen on September 17 and in the days that follow.