Iran increases oil tanker loading as United States amasses military in the region

(Patria) - Iran has been rapidly loading oil onto tankers in recent days, a potential sign of the country's preparations in case of an attack by the United States, writes Bloomberg.

Exports from Kharg Island from February 15 to 20 amounted to nearly 20.1 million barrels, according to Kpler data. This is almost three times the amount loaded during the same dates in January and equivalent to more than three million barrels per day, far above Tehran's usual daily rate.

The increase comes as Washington is assembling its largest combat force in the Middle East since the Second Gulf War in 2003. Last year, just before US airstrikes, Iran rushed to get its oil out of its ports by transferring large quantities to tankers and sending as much as possible to Kharg Island. A similar pattern was observed in 2024 during a period of heightened tensions.

Oil production and exports are a key pillar of support for the Iranian economy, and the race to load barrels onto ships would allow Tehran to have as much production as possible before any potential disruption. These barrels, mostly exported from Kharg Island, would have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, primarily by tankers doing their best to avoid detection. Satellite data provides insight into the level of activity on the island.
It is unclear what will happen to the ships loaded this time, but it is possible they will disperse widely if the United States eventually attacks, according to Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com, which specializes in analyzing satellite imagery.

Iran has been loading "as much oil as possible" recently, he said on Wednesday, adding that tankers will "definitely disperse from the island in case of a new round of airstrikes."
Madani estimates that Iranian exports will average between 1.5 and 1.6 million barrels per day this month. These figures have increased due to stronger shipments since February 15, he added.

Higher flows are also seen in satellite imagery analyzed by Bloomberg.
Between February 15 and 20, the number of tankers spotted in the waters southeast of Kharg Island more than doubled, from eight to eighteen. A partial snapshot of the area on February 22 showed nine tankers remaining.

Crude oil inventories on the island appear to have decreased at the same time the tankers appeared, suggesting that barrels were loaded onto ships.

Bloomberg's analysis suggests that at least seven tanks were full on February 15, while on February 20, six were emptier. This view was confirmed by Madani, who noted that oil reserves on the island were around 67 percent over the weekend, giving Iran enough room to continue topping up tanks if tankers could not load them.
The tanks were as full as 88 percent on January 26, with about 30 million barrels, he added.