Does Trump have white doves in his hat!?

By Rasim BELKO

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A historic turning point or a completely irrelevant political game for the benefit of US President Donald Trump's foreign policy results. 

Viewed from multiple angles, these are the options that diplomats and analysts from different parts of the world predict as the outcome of the meetings between Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti with the head of the US.

Some criticize Washington for organizing the meeting behind Brussels' back, others claim that the focus and main topic is the economy, and others believe that Vučić and Thaçi have a secret agreement that will benefit their host. The idea of a secret agreement between Vučić and Thaçi was put forward by none other than the New York Times, stating that the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo have even agreed to change the borders of the youngest Balkan country. 

The New York Times refers to four former US officials and states that supporters of the secret agreement support the actions of Trump's envoy Richard Grenell regarding the exchange of territory.  The newspaper classifies such a stance as a new American strategy.

However, the American newspaper sees the scheduling of the meeting as a kind of divergence between Trump's and the European administration, which is why the EU is angry with the US. Former EU Special Envoy for Kosovo Wolfgang Petritsch assesses that Grenell's actions are confusing and that the meeting at the White House will not resolve the Kosovo issue. At the same time, the New York Times and its sources question whether the US, under Trump's leadership, has forgotten that Kosovo is its client in this game.

It is also stated that there is a common desire from Grenell and Trump to achieve any result before the elections and improve their foreign policy balance sheet.

From all this, we can conclude that across the ocean, they are indeed thinking that the trio at the White House will not just talk about traffic and selling peppers, but that the focus of everything could be the final resolution of the issue of Kosovo's independence.

Naim Leo Beširi, director of the Institute for European Affairs, agrees with this, stating in an interview with Deutsche Welle that political dialogue has been the basic definition of everything from the beginning. 

"From the very beginning, we have been talking about the political status of the two entities, and all agreements are heading in that direction. There is no possibility for the leaders to meet without touching upon the issue of Kosovo's independence. However, it is not being negotiated at this moment, but the expectations from Belgrade are clear that at some point, negotiations must result in a legally binding agreement that will imply independence," Beširi believes.

Dušan Janjić, who also commented on the whole story for DW, does not expect exclusively economic topics at the meeting. 

"This initiative originated from Donald Trump himself, who, in his letters to Thaçi and Vučić, showed historical ambitions to solve this problem. All this points to a strong political dimension of the meeting. For Trump, it will certainly be an opportunity, due to his communication style, to say that this, like the agreement between Israel and the Emirates, is a historic event, that a phase of peace has been entered, and that a great success has been achieved, but this is nothing new when it comes to the current US administration and the US president," assesses Janjić.

Regardless of the angles of observation, sympathies, and ideology, it is certain that it will be quite heated at the White House. America is not and must not leave the Balkans, nor must it leave it with unresolved relations. The resolution of the Kosovo issue is a prerequisite for resolving other political hotspots, primarily those in Bosnia and Herzegovina. 

However, for the complete end of the Balkan story and the birth of full democracy in the former communist region, the joint participation of two midwives is necessary. Many believe that this is crucial for the Kosovo issue, and therefore for the rest of this region.

Thomas Countryman, former US Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs, tells Radio Free Europe: "I don't think there is rivalry between them (the US and the EU, editor's note), but there is certainly a lack of coordination. The European Union has a more systematic approach to this process compared to everything the United States has done, and it focuses on a wide range of issues, not primarily on a political declaration that would be accepted by the highest officials of the two governments. The American approach is different. I believe that neither approach can achieve complete success unless the United States and the European Union are on the same wavelength."

It will not be easy or comfortable for anyone at that meeting. Everyone has stakes on the table, and any loss can have much greater consequences on their political lives. Trump has the most to lose, because when it comes to US foreign policy, Joe Biden is putting the most pressure precisely on Kosovo. Trump is aware of how passionate the Democrats are about this issue, and therefore, in NHL terms, he must score a touchdown in this story. 

Trump will face two unequal players. Vučić, with plebiscitary support in Serbia on the issue of Kosovo, and Hoti, who is replacing the indicted Thaçi, without significant political support in Kosovo. 

We cannot claim that we will have a new historic agreement in the Balkans on September 4, but we can claim with great certainty that the trade of peppers and wine will not be the focus of the political battle between Serbia and Kosovo in Trump's house. 

Perhaps white doves will fly from the White House. Does Trump have them in his hat, for the final peace of the centuries-old conflict in the Balkans?