IFIMES analysis of the elections in Montenegro: Elections for and against NATO membership

The International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana has prepared an analysis regarding the parliamentary elections in Montenegro, which will be held on October 16, 2016.
In the following text, Patria publishes some of the most important and interesting parts of that analysis.

The upcoming parliamentary elections, to be held on October 16, 2016, are the tenth parliamentary elections since the introduction of multi-party system and the fourth in independent Montenegro. 530,840 voters registered in the central voter registry have the right to vote in the elections. 81 members of the Parliament of Montenegro are to be elected in the elections. The election threshold is 3 percent. Local elections for the municipalities of Kotor and Budva are being held concurrently with the parliamentary elections.

In the parliamentary elections on October 16, 2016, Montenegrin citizens will be able to choose from 17 election lists: ● "With a Sure Step - DPS - Milo Đukanović" ● Great Coalition "Key" ● "A State for All - SDP - Ranko Krivokapić" ● Serbian Party ● "Victories, Not Divisions - Democrats - mr Aleksa Bečić" ● Pensioners, Disabled and Social Justice Party - dr Smajo Šabotić ● Croatian Civic Initiative ● "Consistent - Social Democrats of Montenegro - Ivan Brajović" ● Positive Montenegro ● Bosniak Party ● Democratic Front (DF) ● Alternative Montenegro ● "Albanians Decided - Forca, DUA, Albanian Alternative" ● Democratic Union of Albanians - group of citizens ● "Coalition with One Goal - Gzim Hajdinaga" ● "Montenegro in Safe Hands - Serbian Radical Party" ● Bosniak Democratic Community.

Political parties and lists that intended to participate in the parliamentary elections were obliged to collect the support of 0.8 percent of voters, or slightly more than 4,000 signatures, while parties of minority ethnic communities had to collect 1,000 signatures.

The election slogans of the participating political entities are interesting. The ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) addresses voters with the slogan "With a Sure Step", the Democratic Front (DF) says "Us or Him", Ranko Krivokapić's Social Democratic Party (SDP) addresses with "A State for All", Aleksa Bečić's Democrats say "Victories, Not Divisions", the Triple Coalition "Key" announces "The Best for Montenegro", Ivan Brajović's Social Democrats (SD) campaign with the slogan "Consistent", Positive Montenegro says "Because I Love Montenegro", and the minority Croatian Civic Initiative (HGI) with the slogan "Croatian Heart for Montenegro"...

In the election campaign, two major political blocs are confronting each other – for and against EU and NATO membership. The opposition has never been more destructive and heterogeneous than before the upcoming parliamentary elections. The opposition's approach is built on a flawed concept, which has gathered a conglomerate of diverse political entities, primarily opposing Montenegro's full membership in NATO, and some opposition parties also opposing EU membership, as they desire closer ties with Serbia and Russia. The political rhetoric of the majority of the opposition is mainly focused on the fight against organized crime and corruption, against the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and personally against Prime Minister Milo Đukanović. This is a group of opposition leaders who are essentially disappointed Milošević supporters or have benefited in some way from participation in or benefits from power. The opposition essentially offers no concrete solutions other than to settle accounts with the current government and Đukanović if they come to power. This is a very dangerous model, which aims to combat organized crime and corruption without distinguishing between private initiative (business) and crime and corruption.

Analysts believe that the key in Montenegro is to provide new jobs and create opportunities for young people, and to offer a vision of economic and comprehensive social development.

Strategically Most Important Elections to Date

The representation of women in politics in Montenegro is still insufficient, although the mandatory female quotas on election lists amount to 25 percent. The state has made progress in resolving the position of the LGBT population. Most media outlets in Montenegro are in a difficult situation. Journalists' freedoms, as well as physical safety, are often endangered. For more than 12 years, the murder of Duško Jovanović, the founder and editor-in-chief of the daily newspaper "Dan" from Podgorica, has still not been clarified. The position of minority ethnic communities must be systematically regulated and protection mechanisms ensured to preserve them from assimilation. A clear positive signal from the state to minority ethnic communities, the Albanian and Bosniak, can be the establishment of independent municipalities. The municipality of Petnjica has been established, while in the coming period, work needs to be done on establishing the municipalities of Tuzi (Malesija) and Golubovci. It is noticeable that the state does not utilize the significant potential of Montenegro's numerous diaspora, which is largely ignored during the election campaign.

Analysts believe that since the breakup of the former SFRY, Montenegro has not yet managed to form a strong, indigenous opposition political party that would not be pro-Serbian or pro-Russian. The upcoming parliamentary elections are the most strategically important elections to date, as politically divided Montenegro will definitively opt for NATO and the EU, or will move towards connecting and strengthening cooperation with Russia and Serbia.

Analysts believe that the election campaign in these elections is more creative and innovative. This is also due to the fact that the election campaigns for the two leading political blocs, DPS and Democratic Front (DF), are led by two top election campaign experts from Israel.

The pre-election battle is marked by harsh and aggressive attacks between the DPS and the Democratic Front (New Serbian Democracy, Movement for Changes, and Democratic Party of Unity), which has based its entire campaign on negative campaigning and accusing the ruling party of corruption and incompetence, with the main target of attacks being the Montenegrin government's decision for full membership in NATO.

Montenegro Between Cossacks and NATO

The financing of the opposition, primarily the pro-Russian and pro-Serbian oriented one, is partly carried out from abroad. Therefore, accusations are already publicly present that Russia is financing, with significant financial resources, primarily the Democratic Front. The fact is that DF is conducting a very expensive campaign that is primarily based on opposing Montenegro's entry into NATO. Therefore, some experts believe that DF's campaign is not at all aimed at voters to vote for them, but rather to inflict as much damage as possible on Milo Đukanović (DPS). It is important that the damage caused is not only related to the election result but is primarily intended for deeper and long-term division/polarization of Montenegro's population and to stop Montenegro's Euro-Atlantic path. It is interesting that the DF headquarters is located precisely on Moskovska Street in Podgorica. In the event of a defeat of the current coalition, a complete shift in the country's foreign policy is expected, which could cause nationalist tensions that have been successfully contained and overcome so far. This would cause internal instability and the spread of the crisis to neighboring countries.

In Kotor, recently, in front of the Church of Saint Nicholas, the "Balkan Cossack Army" was formed and paraded. In addition to uniformed Cossacks, participants included bikers from Russia, pro-Russian parts of Ukraine, Serbia, Republika Srpska, and Montenegro, priests of the Serbian Orthodox Church, etc. At a time when Montenegro is soon to become a full member of NATO, a so-called Balkan Cossack Army was formed on its territory.

The symbolism of the formation of the Balkan Cossack Army is illustrative of the fact that Russia has a powerful presence in Montenegro and the Balkan region. This is a visible Russian presence. However, Russia uses covert methods of its operation and presence in Montenegro and the Balkans. Montenegro finds itself in a situation where, in the upcoming parliamentary elections, it must choose between Cossacks and full NATO membership. This means choosing between the past and the future. We expect the answer to this question in the parliamentary elections on October 16, 2016.

Will Montenegro's Stability Be Questioned?

Public opinion analyses show that DPS will have a difficult task this time to secure another mandate in power. Unlike previous elections, DPS is now operating without important coalition partners who in the past brought so much voter support, enabling stable governance for Milo Đukanović and DPS. That stability collapsed at the moment when the President of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Ranko Krivokapić, the long-time Speaker of Parliament, after 18 years of coalition, began to block some important foreign investments and tried to overthrow Milo Đukanović's Government, which, however, managed to gain confidence in the Parliament of Montenegro. In doing so, Krivokapić and his political mentors clearly conceived their political strategy incorrectly, and it is very likely that they will not even pass the election threshold, which would mean the end of his political career.

Due to Krivokapić's political turn and his activities in overthrowing the Government of Montenegro, he has allied himself with the Democratic Front and other pro-Serbian and pro-Russian forces, whom he called enemies of the state in the past. His SDP has disintegrated and lost most of its membership, which, under the leadership of the Minister of Infrastructure Ivan Brajović, formed a new party, Social Democrats (SD). The local elections in the municipality of Tivat in April 2016 were the first test of the new relationships in Montenegro's political space. DPS won an absolute majority, while the newly formed SD won over 10% of the votes and took a convincing second place.

Based on the election results in Tivat, it is evident that the role of Ivan Brajović's SD is important for the future of the Euro-Atlantic majority in the Parliament of Montenegro, holding a kind of key to the development majority and the continuity of Montenegro's political stability on the path to NATO and EU alliance. The future of Montenegro's accession process, and whether it will maintain political stability or face a deep political crisis that risks even inciting inter-ethnic conflicts in a country that has otherwise been considered the most successful in integrating different ethnic communities, will depend precisely on the electoral result of the SD. It is important that numerous dissatisfied DPS voters are also deciding to support the SD, as they see it as a guarantor for the continuation of the Euro-Atlantic and development policy.

The Opposition Would Have Difficulties Forming a New Government

The fact is that the opposition in Montenegro is fragmented and would have great difficulties in forming a government if DPS and SD did not win a majority in the Parliament of Montenegro. There are significant differences between the DF, the Democrats, and the "Key" coalition (Demos – SNP – URA), which connects three opposition parties, and it is unlikely that they could bridge these differences, as they are united by only one goal, which is to overthrow the current government, while they offer voters no strategic or programmatic alternatives. In the event of an opposition victory, a period of political instability, a halt to the process of approaching Euro-Atlantic integration, and a decline in foreign investment, which in recent years has enabled Montenegro to achieve some of the best macroeconomic indicators in the region, is expected.