Ferguson: If Americans choose Biden, the US loses superpower status, with Trump they lose the republic and Ukraine loses the war!

(Patria) - Renowned British-American historian Niall Ferguson from Harvard University gave an interview to the Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung in German, in which he commented on current world topics - from the US facing a choice between Joe Biden or Donald Trump and the consequences of that choice, to the situation in Ukraine and Russia's role in global upheavals, and the issue of Taiwan.

Speaking about the choice between Biden and Trump in the November elections and the question of who is better for the US and the West, Ferguson says that American voters face a difficult decision - if they choose Biden, they might preserve the republic but will almost certainly lose the empire, and the stakes are almost as high in the event of a Trump victory, reports Jutarnji list.

"Another Biden term will seal America's decline as a superpower and the end of 'Pax Americana'. On the other hand, if voters choose Donald Trump, who has made it clear that he despises the American Constitution, they risk saying goodbye to the republic. On the other hand, they might succeed in preserving the empire because America's enemies fear Donald Trump much more than Joe Biden," Ferguson said.

On the other hand, he says, the US is a very stable democracy that could certainly survive a second Trump term. Historically, most republics have not lasted as long as the US, and in that sense, the US is doing surprisingly well, but re-electing a man (Trump, ed.) who explicitly violates and undermines constitutional norms could be a fatal step.

Asked about the three most catastrophic decisions Trump could make if he becomes president again, Ferguson places leaving NATO first. While Trump was president, he notes, he made it clear that he viewed allies as 'windbags' who only took from the United States without giving anything in return.

'Ukraine with Trump is lost'

"In his first term, he was grounded by generals he appointed, like Jim Mattis and H. R. McMaster, who somehow persuaded him to speak positively about NATO. But that would not be the case in a second Trump term, as such people would no longer be in the government."

Secondly, he points out that he is sure that Ukraine would be lost with Trump in the White House, which he considers a catastrophe. "Perhaps it already is, as funds are blocked due to opposition in the House of Representatives. In my opinion, it would be a catastrophe for Ukraine to lose the war against Russia. This would lead to a completely new security situation in Europe and force all European countries to significantly increase their defense budgets, for which they are not politically well-positioned."

However, he highlights the issue of Taiwan as the most serious problem of a new Trump term. Ferguson warns that Trump may not care about it at all. "If you read the memoirs of (former Trump advisor) John Bolton, Trump is essentially indifferent to Taiwan. So, one possibility is that Trump would say to China: 'You can do to Taiwan what you did to Hong Kong. I don't care. Let's talk about tariffs.' But if you look at the campaign rhetoric, he criticizes Biden for being soft on China. So, a Trump administration might actually take a more restrictive approach. Then we could find ourselves in a conflict that I have long warned about."

The rest of the world must also prepare for the scenario of a Trump victory. In this regard, Ferguson points out, Europe must seriously address strategic autonomy, which French President Emmanuel Macron began to insist on some time ago, but which is far from being realized - Japan, he notes, is closer to strategic autonomy than European NATO members.

'Taiwan is next'

"It is time for European countries, large and small, to take their own defense seriously, as they can no longer assume that there will always be an American guarantor of their national security. In the Indo-Pacific, Japan, South Korea, and others must decide whether to accept Chinese dominance and prepare for it. They will try to convince the United States to maintain its dominance in the region. Much will therefore depend on the stance of Trump and his national security team."

When it comes to the Middle East, Ferguson believes that Israel must try to eradicate Hamas, but notes that Iran is the biggest problem. "Almost all the bad actors are actually Iranian proxies. Containing Iran is much more important than containing Israel. I think Israel is already seriously constrained by the United States."

Regarding the Palestinian issue, he believes it is clear to everyone in the region that a two-state solution will not happen. "The Palestinian Authority is an oxymoron. They have no authority, and I don't think authority can be given to them. History teaches us that there is almost no option other than internationalization. And I think the United Nations must take responsibility for Gaza. Nothing else seems possible to me. It will take many years before Palestinian self-governance can be seriously discussed. Israel cannot control Gaza through its army. Therefore, I recommend returning to old models - internationalizing highly disputed areas and tasking the United Nations with ensuring order."

As someone who predicted conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, when asked what he predicts for 2024, he replies that, in his opinion, Taiwan is most likely the next point of conflict.

'Russia's and China's intentions are always malicious'

To the interviewer's statement that the world is in a new 'Cold War' and that the West could emerge victorious, Ferguson emphasizes that young Westerners should first and foremost be explained what defeat looks like.

"Young people on both sides of the Atlantic are very content with freedom. They don't seem to care much about it. This is because they cannot truly imagine what it would be like not to have freedom. I wish we could better explain what a world dominated by the Chinese Communist Party would look like. What it would be like if all our calls and emails and every transaction were under the surveillance of a highly ideological regime."

He also notes that Western leaders should be reminded of one of the lessons of classical history and the eternal truth about power - one of them is the well-known saying, "If you want peace, prepare for war."

The third lesson is one that the recently deceased Henry Kissinger, former US Secretary of State, interpreted back in the 1970s, and which, according to Ferguson, is still valid today, and that is the strategy of détente.

"This means that we do not pretend that China and Russia are becoming good guys. We recognize them as enemies, which they are. And we are aware that their intentions are almost always malicious. However, we try to engage them in a way that buys us time, and that is the time we need most. It will take at least ten years before Europe can defend itself more credibly. The United States will need ten years to modernize its increasingly obsolete military capabilities. It will take ten years for Taiwan to be able to defend itself against Chinese aggression. We need time," Ferguson concludes.