EU mulls how to proceed on Ukraine, Moldova and Bosnia and Herzegovina

(Patria) - As EU leaders face a tough decision this week on whether to move forward with the next steps for Ukraine and Moldova or risk a delay until after the EU elections, progress in Bosnia and Herzegovina is expected to further complicate matters, writes Euractiv today.

When EU leaders meet on Thursday (21 March) in Brussels, the European Commission is expected to deliver a written report on Bosnia and Herzegovina and provide oral assessments on Ukraine and Moldova.

They were not initially expected to go into detail and only take stock of the progress achieved up to that point, according to an early draft of the summit conclusions seen by Euractiv, but a longer discussion seems to be needed now.

After EU leaders made the historic decision to open EU accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova, the next technical steps have seen a slight delay.

Three months into the year, the European Commission has presented the negotiating frameworks, documents of about 20 pages and 35 negotiating chapters that must be approved by member states before formal talks can begin.

The documents follow the same model as those negotiated by Albania and North Macedonia and are more of a technical overview than including controversial political elements.

Both countries had also hoped that an intergovernmental conference (IGC), marking the official opening of talks with both countries, could be held in March.

However, both decisions require unanimity, which EU diplomats believe will be difficult to achieve among EU leaders on Thursday.

Almost half of the EU member states support the swift adoption of the documents, ideally by this week’s EU summit, holding the IGC under the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU, which ends in July, according to internal meeting notes seen by Euractiv.

- There is some reluctance to delay this too long and risk not moving at all in June, as we risk nothing moving under the Hungarian EU presidency in the second half of this year - said one EU diplomat.

Another camp would prefer to postpone the decision until June, after the European elections, when there is also more clarity about the bloc’s new institutional setup.

The question will be how the European Commission’s recommendation to open accession talks with Bosnia and Herzegovina will fare with European leaders this week.

There is still some uncertainty, and that part of the text is still in brackets, said another EU diplomat.

The country is a step behind Ukraine and Moldova, as the start of EU accession talks is conditional on the country completing a series of reforms.

The European Commission recommended last week that Bosnia and Herzegovina begin accession talks, and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the country had made “impressive steps”.

However, for long-term observers, this step was a surprise as the recent EU enlargement report noted limited progress, particularly regarding electoral reforms.

Over the past week, several EU diplomats and officials have expressed concern about the bloc deviating from its merit-based enlargement approach.

- The European Commission has taken a very political approach to the report - said a senior EU official.

- If it had been honest and said that the criteria were not met, but we need to move forward out of necessity, it would have been less problematic than telling us that everything is rosy and has improved - said this official.

- That is not entirely true and complicates things in some Western European countries - they added.

While half of the EU member states support this step, several countries, including France, the Netherlands, and Denmark, have expressed reservations about the level of alignment Sarajevo has achieved.

- If EU leaders give the green light, we will have to discuss what takes precedence, the merit-based process or geopolitical needs - said a third EU diplomat.

- In any case, we must be honest about the standards we apply, which might include rethinking how we go about the process itself - they said.

For some EU member states, including Austria, Croatia, Hungary, and Slovenia, progress in Ukraine and Moldova’s accession should go hand in hand with progress for the Western Balkan countries.

In recent weeks, they have lobbied for the next steps for Ukraine and Moldova to be linked to Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Most EU member states, however, advocate for equal treatment of all three countries.

- What worries us is that we are suddenly starting to link countries again, which is a mistake we made in the past and which risked discrediting the entire process - said a fourth EU diplomat, referring to the Bulgarian veto for North Macedonia which halted Albania’s progress.

EU leaders are expected on Thursday to emphasize that both – enlargement and reform of the bloc – should go hand in hand, a line that has been in place since their informal summit in Granada last October.

The European Commission was expected to release a communication on reforms and pre-accession instruments last month, but has repeatedly postponed its presentation.

Ministers for European Affairs were originally scheduled to discuss the document on Tuesday (19 March), but the EU executive decided to submit the document on Wednesday.

Belgium is expected to organise further discussions on governance reforms, the budget, and internal workings within the Council in the run-up to the June EU summit.

It is also expected that EU leaders will sign a document called the “Strategic Agenda” then, which is expected to provide guidance to the new European Commission on priorities for the coming years.

- We have to be realistic, this outgoing European Commission should not be the one to decide to deal with the enlargement reform plan - that would be original - said a fifth EU diplomat.

- EU leaders will provide guidance in June, but let’s first see what Europe will look like after the elections and after the summer - they added.