EBRD lowers BiH economic growth forecast

SARAJEVO, (Patria) - The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) announced on Thursday that it expects the Bosnian economy to grow by 2.3 percent in 2022, revising earlier projections by 0.7 percentage points.

Bosnia and Herzegovina's economic growth is expected to accelerate to three percent in 2023, the EBRD states in a special urgent edition of its report on regional economic outlook, Indikator.ba reports.

For the Western Balkans region, the EBRD predicts economic growth of 3.2 percent in 2022, about 0.9 percentage points lower than previously predicted.

Western Balkan economies have only limited exposure to Russia or Ukraine in terms of direct economic ties such as trade, investment, remittances, and other inflows, the EBRD states. However, all Western Balkan countries would be adversely affected by higher oil prices, and some by rising gas prices.

Indirect effects of a wider European and global recession on Western Balkan economies could be significant, given the close interconnections between Western Balkan economies and the Eurozone, especially in the automotive sector where North Macedonia, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina could be most affected, it added.

Bosnia and Herzegovina's GDP is estimated to have grown by 4.5 percent in 2021.

The EBRD has lowered its economic growth forecast for Montenegro for 2022 to 3.7 percent, for Croatia to 3.2 percent, and for Serbia to 3.3 percent.