Čović and Dodik in a Strategic Partnership Following the Zagreb Recipe

By Muharem Cero

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It is not uncommon for good connoisseurs of BiH political events to know that it is opportune to hunt for good prey even in troubled waters.

While during the corona-moratorium, general fear entered Bosnian homes through the front door, some saw an opportunity for prey in it.

Far from deceptive words, the coordinated political moves of proven strategic partners Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović were at play.

The well-tuned, years-long tandem recognized an opportunity in such an environment to achieve their political goals, which should culminate at tomorrow's final gathering on the occasion of the Republic of Croatia's presidency of the Council of Europe.

The duo skillfully wove a web to seize the opportunity. Far from the eyes of the BiH public, they lobbied for the achievement of their two important political goals. They lobbied in the corridors and salons of European bureaucrats, parliamentary groups, and important figures.

Just before the Zagreb meeting, the EPP political faction in the EU held its online conference, with the aim of adopting agreed-upon common positions for the Zagreb appearance.

A series of confusing political maneuvers followed, first by Čović and then by Dodik. The leader of HDZ BiH, through his loyal Bevanda, halted the distribution of approved IMF funds, blackmailing his consent with clear cantonal participation in the approval process.

Through the back door, and with a good opportunity, an attempt was made for the first time to achieve international subjectivity of the cantons, which should become a new precedent for all future financial and political actions.

In the second step, Čović, Bevanda, and Krišto, despite a previously undertaken obligation, refused to participate in the work of the ad hoc political body in the process of fulfilling BiH's 14 EU conditions.

The third, likely pre-arranged step, was taken by strategic partner Dodik. First, he legitimized Čović's refusal of the ad hoc team, which resulted in at least a temporary halt to the entire process, but perhaps more importantly, on the eve of the Zagreb meeting, he sent a message about the dysfunctionality of BiH.

At the same time, Dodik sent letters to all participants of tomorrow's online conference and presented his political views. Of course, this time too, he justified Čović's actions, not missing the opportunity to confirm that he agreed with him.

Of course, this is about ethnic legitimacy and the implementation of the Ljubić verdict.

The goals of the duo and their expectations from tomorrow's Zagreb meeting, however uncoordinated they may seem, are certainly very coordinated and essentially anti-Bosnian.

The intention is to change the constitutional and legal character of BiH on the fly, in the corona environment, and through the coordination mechanism, which Dodik is particularly interested in, to give it the status of general constitutional action in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

If Dodik were to achieve this goal, he would affirm the principle of the supremacy of entities over the state, and reduce state institutions to a mechanism of delegate decision-making, where any state decision would be made after obtaining approval from entity bodies and institutions, and only then, like a courier, forwarded to BiH institutions, which would be reduced to simply harmonizing entity, and ultimately ethnic, positions.

This process has been ongoing for a longer time, disguised as preserving entity autonomy, as Dodik often likes to say. Čović's goal is to position the cantons in this process at all costs and, in Dodik's words, strengthen their "visibility".

Analyst freedom allows me to ponder that any success in this would only be a transitional phase in the operationalization of the Resolution on Consociational Federalism adopted by the European Parliament.

One should be more concerned about a party in disguise than one with a recognizable face.