Gas and oil prices up 30 percent compared to 2021, further growth expected

SARAJEVO, (Patria) - This year is already marked by rising energy prices. This increase happens almost every week, making it difficult for the average citizen to grasp the extent of these price hikes compared to 2021, says Almir Bečarević, a gas expert. 

He conducted a comparative analysis of petroleum product prices, taking the price of Super 95 as an example, which was 2.35 KM per liter at the end of 2021. Today, the price of Super 95 is 2.86 KM per liter.

"This means an increase of approximately 22%. The price of Super will exceed 2.90 KM in the coming days, so the total increase will be around 24%. The price should stabilize here, and further corrections can only be expected if oil rises above 120 USD per barrel. Other derivative prices have similar growth, and the percentage increase is comparable," Bečarević states. 

Regarding the price of natural gas, in 2021 it was 0.66 feninga per cubic meter of gas. Today, the price of natural gas is 0.87 feninga per cubic meter of gas. 

"This means an increase of approximately 32%. The price of natural gas will be higher starting in April, costing around 0.95 feninga per cubic meter of gas, so the increase will be approximately 45%. This is not the end of the gas price increase, and it is expected to reach an increase in the range of 60%-100% compared to 2021. It should be noted here that the KS Government subsidizes part of the price, so the 32% increase is not yet fully reflected in the bills of citizens or the bills of Toplane Sarajevo. If someone wanted to subsidize the gas price from April for the next year, it would require over 70 million KM for the FBiH price, and around 50 million KM for KS. For the next heating season, the gas price will be in the range of 1 KM to 1.3 KM, depending on the future contract with Gazprom and assuming the barrel price does not fall below 95 USD," Bečarević states.

The price of central heating has increased by 10 percent since February. KS subsidizes part of the gas price, so without this subsidy, the increase would be approximately 20%. 

"Knowing that the price of gas will rise, it is expected that the price of central heating will continue to increase and should end up with an increase of around 30%-40%. This increase implies a gas price of over 1 KM per cubic meter, which is realistic to expect in the second half of the year."

The price of electricity has increased by 20 percent for industrial consumers, but there has not yet been a correction in bills for households.  

The prices of firewood, coal, and pellets have increased in the range of 10% to 35%, thus following the rise of other energy sources. 

It should be noted here that this is a snapshot from the end of 2021, and if we were to take, for example, the price of Super 95 at the beginning of 2021, we would conclude the following:

At the beginning of 2021, the price of Super 95 was 1.86 KM per liter. Today, the price of Super 95 is 2.86 KM per liter, which is a 54% increase. The price of a barrel was slightly over 60 USD, and today it is approximately 110 USD. 

"Some prices will continue to rise. The price of gas, as well as oil, are experiencing their highest growth, with gas in particular recording a drastic increase after the switch to TurkStream," Bečarević concluded.