Whose messages are more sincere - Dodik's blockade or Čović's support for Bosnia and Herzegovina's NATO path

By Armin Aljović

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The presidents of SNSD and HDZ BiH, Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović, are currently the biggest political partners in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Speaking about Milorad Dodik on HRT at the end of 2017, Čović said: "He is a wise politician who has never betrayed an agreement. He is a more honest person than he is portrayed in the media.".

After the elections on October 7, 2018, Čović criticized the election of Željko Komšić to the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, but again praised Dodik: "Dodik is a politician who keeps his word and fulfills his obligations, and is clear and unambiguous."
 
Sometime earlier, Dodik said about Čović that he is a rational politician "who tries to successfully implement the policy on which he wins elections." He revealed that he communicates and meets with Čović very often, that he respects him as a party leader, and that he shares his opinion on many political issues with him."

However, it is unclear how Dodik and Čović will reach a compromise regarding Bosnia and Herzegovina's entry into NATO. The two differ completely on the issue of BiH's approximation to NATO membership. The HDZ president claims that BiH's entry into NATO is the first priority for BiH. For Dodik, the country's entry into NATO means a noose around the neck of the Republika Srpska entity.

In August, at a working dinner with Croatian diplomats, members of the diplomatic corps from BiH across Europe and the world, Čović, as the then member of the BiH Presidency, stated: "The primary foreign policy goals of BiH, on which one must constantly and tirelessly work, are membership in the EU and NATO.".

After the foreign ministers of NATO countries in Brussels in December 2018 unblocked Bosnia and Herzegovina's path to NATO membership, Čović boasted: "The Croatian people in Bosnia and Herzegovina are vitally interested in membership in the North Atlantic Alliance. It is precisely the Croatian people, through their officials from the Croatian Democratic Union of BiH and the Croatian National Assembly, who have contributed the most for NATO to assess BiH's efforts as credible and invite BiH to submit the MAP.".

The leader of Bosnian Serbs remains exclusive - Bosnia and Herzegovina cannot join NATO.

On January 15, Dodik reiterated: "We cannot accept being in such an organization, because it would mean the end of Republika Srpska. And we do not want the end of Republika Srpska. We want Republika Srpska to be strengthened, to be stable. We have nothing against it being within Bosnia and Herzegovina, but we must return to the original principles of Dayton.".

Analysts, however, assess that Dodik might be more sincere in his views than Čović regarding Bosnia and Herzegovina's NATO path, and that the rhetoric of the HDZ BiH president, Dragan Čović, is not followed by actions, meaning that Čović does not represent Western interests in BiH, but rather Russian interests, whose goal is to stop the NATO path of the Western Balkan countries, including Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Croatian political scientist and political consultant Davor Gjenero recently stated in a comment for Patria: "Americans ten years ago identified the Russian background in Dragan Čović's position, and because of that, everything related to Dragan Čović has no sympathy from the West.".

An interesting situation occurred recently in Belgrade during a brief meeting between Dodik and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Dodik accused Bosniaks of wanting to drag BiH into NATO, but when speaking about Croats, he stopped halfway: "At this moment, the Bosniak and Cro... are trying to condition it by accepting the decision on the path to NATO, which we reject, of course. So the implementation of /election/ results will probably last for a longer time," Dodik told the Russian president.