Belarus 2020: Wagnerization of Belarus

(Patria) - The International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1] from Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyzes events in the Middle East, Balkans, and around the world. IFIMES, on the occasion of current events and the presidential elections in the Republic of Belarus, which will be held on August 9, 2020, has prepared an analysis of events in that country. From the extensive analysis "Belarus 2020: Wagnerization of Belarus", we highlight the most important and interesting parts.

Presidential elections will be held in the Republic of Belarus on August 9, 2020. The elections are being held in a rather tense atmosphere. The events in Belarus in the past year are not only a consequence of internal political relations in the country, but also a significant influence of a foreign factor, which is actively operating in that country, especially in an election year.

Although Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is in the focus of current events, these are fundamentally much deeper and more complex events than they appear at first glance when observing the events through the relationship between President Lukashenko and the opposition, or rather, the opposition presidential candidates.

Minsk Peace Agreement

President Lukashenko has largely tried to balance his policy between the West and his eastern neighbor, the Russian Federation. This policy has, at certain periods, favored one or the other, and sometimes someone else. Lukashenko's pragmatic policy played an important role in signing the Minsk peace agreement, which stopped the armed conflicts in Ukraine.

The agreement was drafted by a three-member contact group on Ukraine, consisting of representatives of Ukraine, Russia, and the OSCE. The agreement to stop the war in the Donbas region of Ukraine was signed on September 5, 2014, by representatives of Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR), and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). The peace agreement, which followed several previous attempts to stop the fighting in Donbas, established an immediate ceasefire. It failed to stop the fighting in the Donbas region, so a new package of measures, called Minsk II, was agreed upon on February 12, 2015. This also did not fully stop the fighting, but the Minsk agreements remain the basis for any future resolution of the conflict, as agreed at the meeting of the Normandy Contact Group (Germany, Russia, Ukraine, and France).

US and EU sanctions imposed on Belarus for its treatment of political opponents were largely lifted after the release of political prisoners and its contribution to signing the peace agreement on Ukraine.

The EU lifted sanctions against Belarus in February 2016. EU Foreign Ministers decided to lift most sanctions against Belarus as a sign of recognition of democratic progress, although concerns about the human rights situation in the country still remain. Thus, the process of building stronger relations with the West, primarily the EU, began. An arms embargo still remains in place. A period of warming relations between Belarus and the EU and US followed.

Relations with Russia, a traditional ally, were strained after Minsk refused to recognize Russia's annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea in 2014.

Wagnerization of Belarus

Wagner is effectively a secret paramilitary unit of the Russian Ministry of Defense and is used in conflicts when it is necessary to deny involvement in conflicts (Donbas and Luhansk in Ukraine in 2014, Syrian Civil War from 2015, Venezuela 2019, etc.). The Wagner group first appeared in 2014 in the Luhansk region of Ukraine, and its members were recently identified and arrested on Belarusian territory. They are suspected of inciting riots and destabilizing the country in connection with the upcoming presidential elections, or for overthrowing the current government.

Analysts believe that the Russian Federation, due to the increased presence of NATO on its western borders, has changed its mode of operation. Instead of direct confrontation with NATO, it resorts to new forms of action, which include causing instability in target countries and provoking local conflicts. Causing an internal crisis in Belarus is an ideal opportunity for the Wagner group's actions, which often uses the shock doctrine in its operations.

Choice between democracy and peace and stability

Remarks on Belarusian democracy and criticisms have come from the West. But similar criticisms from the West are also directed at EU and NATO member states such as the Visegrad Group countries (V4).

Analysts believe that the events in Belarus represent a major test for the EU and the capability and effectiveness of its policy, i.e., whether it will bring Belarus closer to itself and intensify cooperation, or whether it will leave Belarus to the mercy of Russia. Therefore, the West faces two choices in Belarus: whether to support democracy or peace and stability? The experiences from the Western Balkans, where the EU has often not been "lucky", will be very useful in this regard.

Which country follows after Belarus?

The direct military presence and threat of NATO on Russian borders have forced Russia to act differently in the new geopolitical realignment. Although Alexander Lukashenko is the favorite in the upcoming presidential elections in Belarus, his re-election will not mean the end of problems for that country.

Analysts believe that intensive activities to destabilize Belarus will continue, raising the question: which country will be next for destabilization according to the model of "Wagnerization of Belarus"?