Bećirović: BiH's NATO membership is more important than EU membership at this moment

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Zijad Bećirović, Director of the International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) Ljubljana, spoke in an interview with the Kosovo newspaper Gazeta e Re about the Western Balkan countries, where they are on the path to the European Union, and the path Bosnia and Herzegovina is taking...

Dr. Bećirović, as you lead one of the most eminent institutes in the Western Balkans, which also deals with issues related to the Balkans, the first question would be, where do the Western Balkan countries that have not yet joined the European Union stand?

BEĆIROVIĆ: The Western Balkan countries that have not yet become EU members are in an unenviable situation. On one hand, we have the EU, which is facing its own challenges and problems, while on the other hand, we have certain countries that are not working intensely and effectively enough to approach EU membership. The approximation process is important for countries because it mobilizes most of the healthy forces in the country and creates a completely new atmosphere that helps countries initiate internal processes, which will relax relations within countries and thus contribute to general progress.

That is why it is important for both the EU and the Balkan countries not to give up on the enlargement process or the accession process, because in the end, this process will bring progress to everyone. However, a significant portion of the political elites in the region, although declaratively in favor of EU membership, are not in favor of membership. The reason is simple: the approximation process will eliminate a significant portion of the existing elites and change the rules of political behavior. Why would such political leaders lose all those privileges and comfortable positions because of EU membership? That is why they supposedly rhetorically support this EU approximation process, while on the other hand, they sophisticatedly block this process.

Serbia, with the government of Aleksandar Vučić, has shown considerable interest in being part of the European Union, but there are still conditions to be met. What is your opinion, can Serbia become an EU member if it has not yet abandoned its policy of obstruction towards other countries in the region?

BEĆIROVIĆ: Serbia has made some progress. However, it is still too early to talk about its membership in the EU, as well as other countries. Serbia must do much more to approach EU membership. It is a long and exhausting process. Neighborly policy is important for the approximation process. One must know who Serbia's neighbors are. Here we already encounter a problem when it comes to Kosovo. We have a confrontation of two constitutional concepts here. According to the Constitution of Serbia, Kosovo is an autonomous province within Serbia, while in the Constitution of Kosovo, we have that Kosovo is an independent and sovereign state. This must be resolved.

The situation in BiH is not yet at a satisfactory level to be considered stable and prosperous. Milorad Dodik, although he came to power as a pro-integration factor, has become the biggest obstacle for the state of BiH. Which way is BiH heading?

BEĆIROVIĆ: Bosnia and Herzegovina is in an unenviable situation. Its entry into full NATO membership has been blocked for several years. This is primarily due to the influence of Serbia, and recently due to the influence of the Russian factor. BiH's NATO membership is more important than EU membership at this moment. Through NATO membership, Bosnia and Herzegovina would secure guarantees for territorial integrity, and thus the dangers of any secessionist or separatist intentions would be eliminated. Due to the influence of Russia and its exponents in the region, there are intentions to change the geopolitical orientation of the region, or individual countries. The goal is not a Euro-Atlantic perspective, but something else. And a strong confrontation will take place here between the West and Russia, but also the growing influence of Turkey in the region. One more fact. The Dayton Peace Agreement allows for various forms of blockades and obstructions by various actors, and this is often (mis)used in BiH.

After the elections in Montenegro and the great pressure from the opposition, Milo Đukanović is no longer the Prime Minister of Montenegro. Montenegro has opted for Euro-Atlantic integration, but Russian pressure is present. What future does Montenegro have in the context of its commitment?

BEĆIROVIĆ: Montenegro has chosen a Euro-Atlantic perspective. It will soon become a full member of NATO. This strategic orientation has certainly disrupted some of Russia's plans in this part of the world. That is why there is strong pressure on the leadership of Montenegro and attempts to organize unrest, even a coup d'état. This pressure on Montenegro will continue. The goal is to change Montenegro's geopolitical orientation. After joining NATO, Montenegro has real possibilities to become a new member of the EU. Those possibilities are recognized in Montenegro, and that is why they do not want to squander this chance.

In Macedonia, elections were held after a political crisis that lasted too long. New political figures are emerging on the scene. Is there a possibility of a political crisis emerging with the new government?

BEĆIROVIĆ: The citizens of Macedonia opted for change in the recent early elections because they voted for the opposition. Around 600,000 citizens voted for change. No one can stop these democratic changes anymore. It is interesting that no one from the international community congratulated VMRO-DPMNE on their "victory" in the elections. That is why it is important for the democratic forces of the opposition to form a new Macedonian government. Anything else will lead Macedonia into even greater uncertainty and instability.

Kosovo is trying to build its future with great obstacles. The political crisis has been ongoing for a long time. The pressures are both internal and external. The biggest condition from the EU for it is the demarcation of the border with Montenegro in order to gain visa liberalization. How do you view Kosovo's current position?

BEĆIROVIĆ: Kosovo has been in stagnation for several years. There is no much-needed internal consensus on key issues in the country. Progress has been made in the dialogue between official Belgrade and Pristina. However, Kosovo's key problem is the low standard of living of its citizens, a devastated economy, and the continuation of emigration, especially among the younger population. The EU must approve a visa-free regime for the citizens of Kosovo, because the foundation of the EU is the free movement of people, goods, and capital. So, in this case, the EU is neglecting or even ignoring its foundations. It is not good to link visa liberalization for Kosovo's citizens with the demarcation of the border with Montenegro. Kosovo needs new leaders who are not burdened by the mortgages of the past and who see Kosovo as a promising and modern European country that has much to offer its citizens, as well as the region and Europe. For now, Kosovo has stalled in fulfilling this task.