Banac: America's return to the Balkans is bad news for Dodik, good for BiH

It is not by chance that during his recent European tour, US Vice President Mike Pence visited Georgia, Estonia, and Montenegro, countries currently most exposed to Russian pressure, believes Croatian historian, publicist, and professor of South Slavic history at Yale University Ivo Banac, reports Patria agency.

- Montenegrins do not need to be explained what Moscow was preparing for them last autumn. Fortunately, the conspiracy was discovered and thwarted. Montenegro joined NATO, strengthened its independence, but much political residue remains that will have to be cleared - Banac stated in an interview for the Podgorica newspaper Pobjeda.

Banac cited examples of some countries where Russia is currently pursuing an aggressive policy, in his opinion.

- Parts of Georgia are under Russian occupation, albeit masked as "regions" that only Russia recognizes - Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Estonia is the first target in the Baltic region. There is an opinion that Russia, if it dares, will test the resolve of the US and other NATO countries regarding collective defense (Article 5, an attack on one member is an attack on all) precisely in Estonia. About 300,000 ethnic Russians live in Estonia, and Moscow regularly offers "protection" to its compatriots, whether they want it or not. Estonia has thus become the most advanced point of the new cold war between Russia and the West. All in all, the three countries we are talking about are on the front line of Russian advances - Banac believes.

Banac emphasized that the visit of US Vice President Mike Pence is only a confirmation of how committed US foreign policy is to the stability of the Balkans.

- As unexpected as it may seem due to the passive policy of the Obama administration, the US has never abandoned the Balkan region. The process of NATO expansion has progressed even under Obama's watch - Croatia and Albania joined NATO, while Kosovo remained a key point of US military presence in the region. Camp Bondsteel near Uroševac is the largest US military base in this part of Europe, with about 7,000 ground troops. However, it is true that Obama left a series of diplomatic initiatives in the Balkans to the EU, actually to Germany, and the results were lacking. This is, therefore, a kind of return, or rather a signal that the US is taking the initiative - said Professor Banac.

He added that the Americans re-taking regional initiative is especially good for BiH, Macedonia, and Kosovo.

- No matter how many wrong moves and noise there were in the early phase of Trump's foreign policy, it is certain that appeasement towards Russia is no longer an option, if it ever was; moreover, resistance to Russia is strengthening, often against the will of some European allies who think they can develop under the free American military umbrella with cheap Russian gas. America's return is, therefore, bad news for all regional troublemakers - Russian agents in Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, especially for Dodik and the Serbian Orthodox Church, but also for the two-faced Serbian and Greek policies. And, of course, for Moscow! I would add for Ankara too, although the latter is less obvious. The return of the US is good news for all those who have been under pressure from Belgrade for years, with Putin's support. Especially for Montenegro, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and of course for Croatia - said Banac.