ANALYSIS: Barrel prices in 2012 were higher, but fuel was cheaper than today

By: Almir Bečarević

On the FMT FBiH oil info website, the price of super gasoline exceeded 2.60 KM per liter. Specifically, the price of super gasoline at one of the stations is 2.61 KM. The average of other super gasoline prices is around 2.50 KM per liter. This price of super gasoline prompts me to analyze it with fuel prices at stations from 2012.

Why prices from 2012?

In 2012, the highest average crude oil price on the world market was recorded and it amounted to:

- 111.57 USD per barrel, and in that year, the lowest recorded price was:

- 88.69 USD per barrel, and the highest:

- 128.14 USD per barrel

In 2021, the average price was:

- 68 USD per barrel,

and the lowest was:

- 50.37 USD, while the highest was almost:

- 86 USD per barrel.

In 2012, the highest recorded price at Bosnian-Herzegovinian stations was 2.64 KM per liter of super 98, and 2.54 KM for diesel.

This year, 2021, the current highest price for a liter of super gasoline is 2.61 KM, and the price for a liter of diesel is 2.46 KM.

Now let's look at the current ranges for diesel and super 98 at the stations.

The range for diesel is from 2.26 KM to 2.46 KM. The range for super 98 is from 2.31 KM to 2.61 KM.

Knowing that the FBiH Government has set the maximum possible margin for distributors at 0.25 feninga, it follows that the difference between the lowest and highest price for diesel is 20 feninga, and for super 98 it is 30 feninga. From this, it follows that those with the lowest prices are selling these two derivatives for zero profit or almost zero profit.

Factually, the dollar exchange rate was slightly lower in 2012, but there is a calculation for that too. In 2012, the exchange rate of 1.55 multiplied by the highest barrel price that year of 128.14 USD gives a barrel price of 198 KM per barrel.

The highest price in 2021 was slightly less than 86 USD multiplied by the current dollar exchange rate of 1.68, which amounts to 144 KM per barrel.

When we see these differences, it is very easy to draw a conclusion, and I leave that to the readers. Gas prices are formed based on a nine-month average, and therefore it is my obligation to monitor oil prices, and whether everything is logical, I leave that to those who have set possible trade margins. In conclusion, almost 80% of imported oil in BiH is held by only two importers.