US Officials Expect Israel to Attack Iran Before Presidential Elections

(Patria) - US officials expect an Israeli attack on Iran to occur before November 5, the day of the US presidential elections, CNN reports, citing sources close to "discussions".

Biden and Harris Under Constant Pressure

Events in the Middle East could therefore have a significant impact on the extremely important elections in the United States, reports Jutarnji list.

- The timeline and parameters of Israel's response to the Iranian attack carried out earlier this month are the subject of intense debate within the Israeli government and are not directly related to the date of the US elections.

However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears sensitive to the potential political consequences that Israel's actions would have in the US, CNN sources state.

The conflict in the Middle East is an important issue in these US elections. President Joe Biden and, indirectly, Vice President Kamala Harris, are under constant pressure from the progressive wing of the party regarding their handling of the situation.

Republicans, including former President Donald Trump, accuse the Biden and Harris administration of a poor response to the crisis, which has "pushed the world into chaos".

The US administration has increased pressure on Israel as the elections approach, and has asked its government, of which it is a key ally, to improve humanitarian conditions within Gaza.

This week, a letter leaked to the media in which Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin warned Israel that "failure to meet obligations to provide humanitarian aid to Gaza could lead to a suspension of US military aid to Israel".

The letter was signed by Lloyd and Blinken, not Biden or Harris, which is significant. Namely, despite pressure from the left, neither Biden nor Harris have publicly threatened to suspend aid to Israel. Even the deadline for sending aid, mentioned in the letter from Lloyd and Blinken, is 30 days and falls after November 5.

The warning came at the same time as an advanced US air defense system arrived in Israel to help defend the country against Iranian attacks.

All of this indicates that the Democratic Party has found itself in a "between a rock and a hard place" situation, and is trying to find a balance between the opposing interests of parts of its traditional voter base.

Three Weeks Until the Election

The development of the conflict in the Middle East in the remaining three weeks before election day represents one of the biggest uncertainties for both presidential campaigns.

Although not a priority issue for many voters, the crisis has complicated Harris's efforts to win Michigan, a state with a large concentration of Arab-American voters, CNN recalls in its analysis. She will spend three days in that state this week.

Many analysts are convinced that an Israeli strike could tip the race for Biden and Harris. The outbreak of a wider regional conflict would be an undesirable development for an issue that has already caused them significant political headaches, CNN states.

Netanyahu, on the other hand, is aware that a potential counter-attack could reshape the presidential race, according to some US officials, and this has further complicated diplomacy between the two countries in recent months.

Following Iran's missile attack earlier this month, Biden did not try to dissuade Netanyahu from a strong response. However, aware of the possibility that a wider war or rising oil prices could affect the presidential race, he and his team advocated for a moderate response, unlike Trump.

The restraint of Biden administration officials regarding the timing and targets of the Israeli counter-attack has been striking.

Last week, Netanyahu informed Biden that Israel does not intend to attack Iranian nuclear or oil facilities. For Biden, who publicly urged Israel to avoid these targets, this was a relief.

- We listen to the US opinion, but we will make final decisions based on our national interests - Netanyahu stated, indicating that, despite the claims he made to Biden, the scope of Israel's reaction could be different from what the White House has been pushing for.

It is not known whether Israeli attacks on Iran will be limited to physically targeting military facilities or will also include a cyber warfare component.

US officials are closely monitoring not only the counter-attack by their ally but also the Iranian response it will provoke. The Biden administration is trying to avoid the outbreak of another full-scale war in the Middle East.

Biden and Netanyahu spoke by phone last week, but the US administration has not released details of that conversation.

Earlier, information about tense exchanges of views had leaked to the media, and US officials confirmed that Biden's requests were in line with the demands in the letter signed by the ministers of defense and diplomacy.