Vučić cannot compensate for the loss of Kosovo with Bosnia

(Patria) - Andreas Ernst writes in a commentary for Neue Zurcher Zeitung (NZZ) that Milorad Dodik, leader of SNSD and president of the BiH entity RS, is again threatening separatism, but this time his plans should be taken seriously.

Milorad Dodik, president of the entity in BiH, is again planning secession from the state. He has done this countless times. But this time it is important to listen more carefully to what Dodik is saying – and above all, to look more carefully at what he is doing. Because, with the escalation of the Kosovo issue, the framework conditions for Bosnia have also worsened – writes the Swiss newspaper.

Dodik is talking about organizing a referendum before the end of this year – writes NZZ and reminds that “the RS assembly also took the first steps in this direction in 2021.

But the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 stalled Dodik's plans. Dodik noticed that there is zero tolerance in the EU and the US for experiments in the Western Balkans. His room for maneuver quickly shrunk to zero.”

What has changed since then, that Dodik is putting the referendum back on the table – asks the author and immediately answers that it is certainly “not a severe crisis in Bosnia”.
The state is not in crisis, but Dodik's rule is. In the autumn of 2022, he won by a narrow margin. It is uncertain whether he could repeat that success. For two decades, he has shaped the country's policy and during that time helped himself and his family to immense wealth. Many citizens are simply fed up with him. Therefore, the self-created crisis suits the controversial 'father' of the country.”

Besides that, there is something else: the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo is entering its final phase – believes Andres Ernst.

He adds that it is essentially clear to everyone that Belgrade will have to accept the independence of its former province sooner or later.

At least de facto. Therefore, a crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina would also suit Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. He could once again present himself as a guarantor of stability and probably postpone the recognition of Kosovo again. In addition, Vučić could again raise the Serbian question: according to Vučić's calculations, if we lose Kosovo and the Serbs there, then we should be compensated with the territory of the Bosnian Serbs.

The author then explains, “that this idea, concretely – the breakup of Bosnia and Herzegovina, is extremely dangerous. Its implementation would probably lead to war. Nevertheless, it is obvious that such thought experiments are again enjoying a certain acceptance among Western diplomats”.

The EU should strongly oppose this – believes Ernst and continues:
But not by sending more troops to Bosnia, as British parliamentarians demand. And not by the High Representative taking measures that he cannot implement due to a lack of legitimacy and authority.

At the end of the commentary, NZZ writes:

Because once again: it is not Bosnia that is in crisis, but Dodik. He personally must be sanctioned. A travel ban to the EU and an investigation into his financial situation would be a reasonable start. And Vučić must be clear: the loss of Kosovo cannot be compensated with Bosnia.