Serbia: Between unrecognized military neutrality and NATO membership

The International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyzes developments in the Middle East and the Balkans. IFIMES analyzes current events in Serbia regarding the early parliamentary elections, which will be held on April 24. The news agency Patria publishes the most interesting parts of the analysis "Serbia: Between unrecognized military neutrality and NATO membership".

Does Serbia need early parliamentary elections?

 Early parliamentary elections in Serbia will be held on April 24. The last early parliamentary elections in Serbia were held on March 16, 2014. Does Serbia need new early parliamentary elections? Is Serbia in political (in)stability? After the opening of negotiation chapters with the European Union (EU), the question of the justification for holding early parliamentary elections has divided the Serbian and international public. Simultaneously with the early parliamentary elections, elections for the Assembly of the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina and local elections are being held.

The consequences of the catastrophic rule of Boris Tadić and the Democratic Party (DS) under his leadership are still felt in Serbia. It is undeniable that the emergence of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) brought a breath of fresh air to the Serbian political scene. It led to a decisive turn in many aspects of Serbian politics, especially regarding the dialogue between official Belgrade and Pristina and the commitment to EU membership. Eight years of Boris Tadić's rule set Serbia back, so Serbia's recovery will take a longer period to eliminate the negative consequences of his rule, regardless of who is in power in Serbia. In the coming period, Serbia will need to implement regionalization and ensure the balanced development of all parts of the country.

In the parliamentary elections, according to the proportional system, 250 members of parliament are elected for the National Assembly of the Republic of Serbia. 6,737,808 registered voters have the right to vote. In Kosovo, which Serbia still considers its Autonomous Province according to the current constitution, parliamentary elections will be held in areas where the Serbian community lives.

The Republic of Serbia, according to the current Election Law, which was adopted in 2000 and amended in 2004, represents one electoral unit. Parliamentary mandates are distributed proportionally to the number of votes won. Amendments to the old election law primarily concern national minority political parties in the distribution of mandates, which, if they do not cross the electoral threshold of 5% of the votes, have a "natural threshold" which is obtained by dividing the number of valid votes by 250 MPs for each parliamentary seat, which, depending on voter turnout, represents between 12,000 and 16,000 votes.

20 lists are participating in the parliamentary elections. 19 participated in the previous parliamentary elections in 2014.

The Republican Electoral Commission (RIK) has so far proclaimed the following electoral lists as valid: ● Aleksandar Vučić - Serbia is winning ● For a just Serbia – Democratic Party (NOVA, DSHV, ZZS) ● Ivica Dačić – “Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), United Serbia (JS) – Dragan Marković Palma” ● Dr. Vojislav Šešelj - Serbian Radical Party ● Dveri - Democratic Party of Serbia - Sanda Rašković Ivić - Boško Obradović  ●  Vajdasági Magyar Szövetség-Pásztor István - Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians-István Pásztor ● Boris Tadić, Čedomir Jovanović – Alliance for a Better Serbia – Liberal Democratic Party, League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina, Social Democratic Party  ● Muamer Zukorlić - Bosniak Democratic Community of Sandžak  ●  SDA of Sandžak – Dr. Sulejman Ugljanin ●  For a Free Serbia – Zavetnici – Milica Đurđević  ● Citizens' Group for the Revival of Serbia – Prof. Dr. Slobodan Komazec ●  Russian Party – Slobodan Nikolić ●  Republican Party – republikánus párt – Nikola Sandulović  ● Serbian Russian Movement – Slobodan Dimitrijević  ● Borko Stefanović – Serbia for all of us ● Dialogue – Youth with an Attitude – Stanko Debeljaković  ● Enough is Enough – Saša Radulović  ● Party for Democratic Action – Ardita Sinani Partia për veprim demokratik ● Green Party  ● In spite of everything – United for Serbia – People's Alliance.

So far, according to surveys, the list "Aleksandar Vučić – Serbia is winning (Serbian Progressive Party, Social Democratic Party of Serbia, Party of United Pensioners of Serbia, New Serbia, Serbian Renewal Movement, Socialist Movement)" is in a clear lead. The Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) coalition, the Serbian Radical Party (SRS), the Democratic Party (DS), Dveri-DSS, the Alliance for a Better Serbia (SDSS, LDP, LSV), and most likely the "Enough is Enough" movement and minority community parties will certainly enter Parliament.

It is undeniable that the winner of the elections will be the coalition gathered around the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). The SNS will most likely form the new Serbian government. Who the coalition partners will be still depends on the SNS's intentions, whether they will form a broad coalition or form a government with smaller parties.

It is important for minority communities to be represented not only in the Parliament of Serbia but also in the Government of Serbia. Although the name of the list around the SNS is Serbia is winning, whether Serbia will truly win depends largely on Aleksandar Vučić, the president of the SNS and the current Prime Minister of Serbia. He will have to build upon his previous way of governing and thank some of his past associates for their cooperation and strengthen his team with new, younger, and professional staff who will not be burdened by ideology but by achieving set goals and results.

Analysts believe that for the future of parliamentary democracy in Serbia, it is important to have a strong and active opposition in the coming period as a corrective to the government, which has not been the case so far.

Change in Serbia's geopolitical orientation

Serbia is still at a crossroads. The so-called schizophrenic foreign policy established during the rule of the Tadić-Jeremić tandem, based on Russia - EU - USA - China + Non-Aligned Movement, was still present, to a lesser extent, in the past period.

The recent signing of an agreement between Serbia and NATO is not yet a confirmation of Serbia's Euro-Atlantic orientation. The West still expresses suspicion towards Serbia's geopolitical orientation, as well as that of some other countries in the region, which it believes can change their geopolitical orientation. Therefore, it is important in the coming period to work on further building and developing trust between Serbia and the West.

Serbia's unilaterally declared military neutrality does not represent any obligation in international relations and international law. It is a populist Resolution adopted by the Serbian Assembly in 2007. Serbia's unilateral military neutrality has not been recognized by neighboring countries or world powers, nor is it internationally recognized and registered.

All of this contributes to the strengthening of mistrust from Western allies towards Serbia. Therefore, it is important that after the upcoming parliamentary elections, Serbia clearly defines its geopolitical orientation, as it could become a victim of further mistrust from Western allies towards Serbia and its policy.

The decision on military neutrality in Serbia is being attempted to be justified by preserving territorial integrity and due to special ties with the Russian Federation. However, the fact is that military neutrality cannot protect either of these two interests. Military neutrality was declared in 2007, seven years after NATO troops arrived in Kosovo. Kosovo became an independent state, recognized by numerous UN member states, and Serbia failed to protect the territorial integrity of Kosovo as its constitutional and legal territorial unit. Even Russia used the Kosovo case to justify the dissolution of Georgia and Ukraine. Serbia will not be able to avoid some form of recognition of Kosovo as a condition for joining the EU.

Military neutrality is not a guarantee of preserving special relations with the Russian Federation if Serbia continues with European integration. The EU is not just a cash register from which poor countries withdraw money, but also an integration of states that have their common foreign and security policy. Furthermore, there is a strong connection between the EU and NATO, based on convergent geopolitical interests as well as common values of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. Serbia is the only country so far that has declared military neutrality against NATO out of alleged solidarity with Russia.

In the coming period, Serbia will have to fundamentally revise its special relations with Russia and subordinate them to a common foreign and security policy, regardless of whether it becomes a NATO member or not. This will not please Moscow, which clearly wants to prevent not only the expansion of NATO but also the EU, as evidenced by the example of Ukraine and the latest developments in Macedonia, whose goal, among other things, is to prevent Macedonia's entry into full NATO membership.

While the intensity of the talk about military neutrality is increasing, on the other hand, Serbia is expanding its space at NATO headquarters and working to strengthen cooperation. On the other hand, Serbia is working to strengthen the Russian-Serbian Center for Emergency Situations in Niš, which effectively represents the presence of Russian forces in Serbia. The center has the potential to become a Russian military base. Serbia must join the existing mechanisms in Brussels for emergency situations.

When Montenegro becomes a NATO member, along with Croatia, Albania, Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria, which have already joined the North Atlantic Alliance, a militarily neutral Serbia would be surrounded by NATO member states. There is also Kosovo with NATO troops present and a large military base. According to military experts, military neutrality is an unsustainable concept for Serbia in the future.

How to reconcile two constitutional concepts

The issue of Kosovo continues to be a significant issue in Serbian domestic and foreign policy. The dialogue between official Belgrade and Pristina under the auspices of official Brussels (EU) has been ongoing for several years. During the dialogue, some progress and cooperation have been established between the political structures of Serbia and Kosovo. The result of this cooperation is the support of Serbian MPs in the Kosovo Assembly for the election of Hashim Thaçi (PDK) as President of Kosovo, who otherwise could not have been elected President of Kosovo without securing a quorum of Serbian MPs, who receive guidelines for action from Belgrade.

This time, official Belgrade made a key mistake by expressing political support for Thaçi, a politician with a past baggage, who will hardly be able to avoid judicial proceedings at the newly formed Special Court for War Crimes. It is becoming increasingly certain that the new partner in Kosovo for official Belgrade could be Albin Kurti and the "Self-determination" movement (Lëvizja Vetëvendosje!).

According to the Constitution of the Republic of Serbia, Kosovo and Metohija are an integral part of the Republic of Serbia, while according to the Constitution of the Republic of Kosovo, it is an independent state. How to reconcile two constitutional concepts without which lasting peace and long-term stability cannot be ensured.

Therefore, Serbia is still a country whose state borders, total population, and state sovereignty are unknown, and without these, there is no faster approximation to the EU, which is determined by relations with neighbors. Serbia will have to work more on pursuing a rational policy instead of the policy that has been irrational in many segments so far.