Serwer: Americans playing strange games in the Balkans, Belgrade is their starting line

SARAJEVO, (Patria) - Washington is sending strange signals to the Balkans. 

It supported the decision of the High Representative of the international community in Bosnia and Herzegovina introducing a post-election change in the way votes determine outcomes. This favors ethnonationalist political parties linked to Moscow. 

The Americans are canceling Kosovo ministerial visits with U.S. officials. 

Washington wants the Prime Minister of Kosovo to postpone insisting on Kosovo license plates in the northern municipalities of his country with a Serbian majority, without guarantees that further postponement will bring compliance.

All of this seems disconnected, perhaps even random and unimportant. But it is none of that.

It is all related to Belgrade - writes Professor Daniel Serwer in his latest blog. 

He recalls that for the Biden administration, Belgrade is the "starting line."

Serwer also recalls that the current U.S. president "was a strong supporter of Kosovo's struggle for liberation from Serbia." 

"But he decided long ago that Belgrade is the most important thing in the Balkans. 

I testified before him in the Senate more than 15 years ago. He made it clear that he supported Serbia's entry into the EU accession process, even though at that time it was obvious that the country did not meet any conditions. 

-Biden believed that Serbia's European path would be constraining for the country," writes Serwer.

He states that upon arriving at the White House, he left the Balkans to the State Department. 

And in that institution, "key people believe that the President of Serbia is serious in his commitment for his country to join the EU." 

"Also, they are seriously concerned about the well-being of Serbs in neighboring countries. 

Pacifying Serbia has become a goal of American policy," writes Serwer. 

He claims that Gabriel Escobar recently received a Serbian diplomat who used the opportunity to make highly undiplomatic remarks about Montenegro. 

Serwer also highlights the view that the State Department is rooting for Vučić's unnecessary and divisive initiative - the Open Balkan. 

The well-known American analyst of Balkan affairs emphasizes that there is little evidence that Vučić is serious about the EU. 

The country's progress toward Brussels is at a technical level, but there is no progress in the so-called Copenhagen criteria. 

These relate to the existence of democratic institutions, free media, an independent judiciary, the rule of law, and an open market economy. 

"Serbia has made little progress in these areas, and in some it has regressed. 

It has also failed to align its foreign policy with EU policy, particularly but not only regarding sanctions against Russia."

Serwer dedicates the beginning of his text on mistaken American policy in the Balkans to the meeting of Aleksandar Vučić with the envoy of Ramzan Kadyrov, the notorious leader of Chechnya, and the message of the President of Serbia that nothing can destroy Russian-Serbian friendship. 

He then warns that Vučić's regime, through the "Serbian world," is implementing a unification project. Just like Vladimir Putin's plan for the Russian world. 

"Vučić has sought and largely achieved dominance over Serbian communities in Kosovo, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. In all three countries, Russian 'hybrid warfare' helps Serbia advocate for a de facto if not de jure partition of those countries. Vučić aims to limit the authority of state structures in his neighbors and create a middle level of government dominated by Serbs. 

That is the essence of the 'license plate problem.'

Serwer further states that America, after the end of the Cold War, hoped for a whole and free Europe. 

"That will not happen soon. Europe is dividing between the NATO sphere in the west and a sphere dominated by the Russians in the east. 

Serbia chooses to remain in the sphere dominated by the Russians, together with Belarus and what Moscow can retain in Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia. 

Belgrade also hopes to maintain the flow of EU accession funds it receives from Brussels. 

This is supposed to finance preparations for eventual membership, but Serbia uses it to boost a state-dominated economy.

The level of government in neighboring states controlled by Serbs will be particularly useful to Moscow. 

The Russians will use it to destabilize current and future NATO members. This will make further enlargement of the Alliance risky," Serwer further analyzes.

Answering the question of what is wrong with Washington's policy in the Balkans, he says it is poorly conceived because it is based on wrong assumptions about Serbia's European ambitions and its activities in neighboring jurisdictions. 

He also emphasizes that American policy is poorly implemented, that there is no justification for its engagement in imposing Christian Schmidt's changes to the Election Law on election night, and that standing behind the 'Serbian world' cannot be justified due to the dangers this project poses to Serbia's neighbors and potential U.S. allies.

"The U.S. should return to a Balkan policy that would support the sovereignty and territorial integrity of each Balkan state, as well as respect for the human rights of their citizens. This should include their right to democratically, without interference from Belgrade, decide on which side of the new line dividing Europe they want to be. 

We can hope that Serbia will change its mind regarding Russia, but that will require strategic patience, not appeasing Belgrade," Serwer concludes.