The war was inevitable because Belgrade wanted a Greater Serbia!

Just one month after the referendum on restoring the independence of Bosnia and Herzegovina on March 1, 1992, the United States of America (USA) was aware that without a major international military intervention, a bloody war and aggression against BiH would not be prevented, reports the BiH news agency Patria (NAP).

A document prepared by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in early April 1992 for then-US President George H.W. Bush, titled "Spreading Crisis in the Balkans: Can It Be Controlled?", stated that conflicts were inevitable, but their intensity could only be influenced.

The document was recently released by the Bill Clinton Presidential Library in a set of declassified documents on events in BiH from 1992 to 1996.

- The biggest obstacle to peace is the Serbian attacks in Bosnia and Herzegovina. They confirm that Belgrade intends to include Serbs from neighboring republics in Greater Serbia - stated the document from the Director of the CIA.

The assessments of the then leaders of American intelligence, shortly after the referendum and the international recognition of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, and Slovenia, still, according to this document, included the possibility of border changes and humanitarian resettlement.

However, there was disagreement within the US government on this matter. As stated in the document, the Directors of the CIA and NSA were of the opinion that any peace solution for the former Yugoslavia must include changes to the borders of the republics and population transfers on a national basis.

However, assistants from the State Department, leaders of the US Army, Marines, and other intelligence agencies opposed this, holding the view that changing existing borders and humanitarian resettlement could only lead to even greater violence and human rights violations. According to the CIA's estimates at the time, it was possible for conflicts from the former Yugoslavia to spread to Hungary, Greece, and Albania, and for BiH alone, they predicted more than two million displaced persons and hundreds of thousands of deaths.