FIVE SCENARIOS FOR THE OUTCOME: How the diplomatic war between Serbia and Croatia could end

There is no end in sight to the "diplomatic war" between Serbia and Croatia, and sending protest notes and their rejection has become a common practice recently. The two countries have exchanged at least six such "messages" in just two weeks, but the question is whether it will stop at that, or if bilateral relations will head in a more serious and worse direction, which could even lead to the severance of diplomatic relations, writes Blic.rs, reports Patria.

Former Serbian Ambassador to Sweden and BiH, Ninoslav Stojadinović, says that the situation Serbia and Croatia are currently in is a "stalemate" that will not be resolved quickly or easily, especially considering that early parliamentary elections are being held in Croatia in September.

- This can be an "elegant" solution for a period, but it cannot go on indefinitely. I believe that sending protest notes will continue until those elections, but I do not believe that diplomatic relations will be frozen or severed. I assume the EU will not allow that - says Stojadinović.

Scenario 1: Sending protest notes

There is no rule or deadline for how long such a practice can be applied. Sending, receiving, and rejecting protest notes can last as long as a particular country wishes, it can be stopped in the same way, or some of the next steps can be taken, either towards improving or cooling relations.

Scenario 2: Recalling ambassadors for consultations

After the exchange and non-receipt of protest notes, the next step in a diplomatic sense could be recalling ambassadors for consultations, whether it concerns Serbia or Croatia, or both.

- If something like that happens, it is a sign of protest, but it still does not mean a lower level of diplomatic relations or their severance, because after consultations, and when the reasons for dissatisfaction are removed, the ambassador can return to the country where he served without a special procedure - says Stojadinović.

Scenario 3: Recalling an ambassador

A very serious situation for the relations between the two countries would be the next step, which is for the ambassador to be recalled from the country where he is serving, and for his counterpart from the host country to be declared a persona "non grata", as was the case with the Ambassador of Montenegro to Serbia when that country recognized the independence of Kosovo.

Scenario 4: Withdrawal of an ambassador

The withdrawal of an ambassador is a serious step, as it involves lowering diplomatic relations to the level of a charge d'affaires and usually results in reciprocal measures. In such cases, to restore diplomatic relations to the ambassadorial level again, a certain procedure is required, which involves waiting for the other side (the host country) to accept the ambassador, i.e., to issue an agrément.

Scenario 5: Severance of diplomatic relations

One of the more rigorous measures in a diplomatic sense would first be freezing relations with a certain country, and finally, their severance. If a severance occurs, the embassy in a country is closed, and all diplomats are recalled, and in order to reopen embassies and exchange ambassadors, it is necessary to go through the procedure for establishing diplomatic relations from scratch.