Macedonian Parliamentary Elections 2016: A Balkan Version of Putinism

In  the Republic of Macedonia, after two postponements, early parliamentary elections will be held on December 11, 2016.

The early parliamentary elections are a consequence of the Pržino agreement from June 2015, when the four leading political parties in Macedonia, the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM), the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI-BDI), and the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA-PDSH), after lengthy and difficult negotiations, agreed to overcome the political crisis, caused by the illegal wiretapping of 26,000 citizens, by holding early parliamentary elections with the fulfillment of certain preconditions. Key was the purification of the voter list, which had an excess of 330,000 voters (now 200,000), and the establishment of appropriate media regulation and equal access to media for all political entities, which would enable equal treatment in the media for all participants in the electoral process, instead of the absolute media hegemony of VMRO-DPMNE until now. The aforementioned conditions have been partially met, although the absolute dominance of VMRO-DPMNE in the Macedonian mainstream media is still present. The problem of balancing the number of voters in electoral units is also present. This problem is most evident in the 6th electoral unit, which is predominantly inhabited by ethnic Albanians. Because of this, a constitutional dispute has been initiated, which could call into question the legitimacy of the elections, as the vote of a voter does not have the same value in all electoral units.

Macedonia is facing various challenges, such as the internal disintegration of the state. The internal disintegration of the state is the most complex and enigmatic phenomenon. Numerous states facing great internal and external antagonisms, despite economic problems and various collapses in the functioning of state administration, still manage to survive, while others do not. Some states show positive dimensions of development, experience implosions, and then disintegrate and disappear as if they never existed. Macedonia is precisely facing such challenges, especially in the last few years, and must achieve a general social consensus for its future, which has not been achieved so far.

For the first time in Macedonia's history, the upcoming elections will not be characterized by the previously prevailing ethnic-based voting. The all-national movement and the "Colorful Revolution" have initiated tectonic changes in Macedonian society and the political scene. The ethnic principle, according to which everyone voted for parties from their own ethnic community until now, has set Macedonia back and brought the country to the brink of collapse. This is precisely why there is concern among the so-called national leaders. Recently, the controversial DUI president Ali Ahmeti stated for RSE/RFERL that SDSM has no right to Albanian votes in Macedonia, which speaks to Ahmeti's democratic capacity, while simultaneously expressing his concern that the era of so-called false national leaders, who have led the people to the brink of collapse, is ending. His statement is undemocratic and fascist. Namely, with his policies, Ahmeti has brought Albanians into the most difficult position since Macedonia's independence, and it is precisely Albanians who must find representatives for their interests and vote for other parties that will articulate their interests, primarily as citizens of that country. These are certainly no longer DUI or DPA.

The most illustrative indicator of the "success" of the current policy in Macedonia is the mass departure of young people from the eastern part of Macedonia, while young people from western Macedonia have already emigrated. Young people are massively applying for Bulgarian citizenship and Bulgarian passports and leaving for EU countries. Thus, in the last few years, 250,000 young people, according to Eurostat data, have left Macedonia. Only 1.65 million inhabitants actually live in Macedonia, with a tendency for this number to decrease to below 1.5 million inhabitants in the next few years.

Eleven political entities are participating in the upcoming early parliamentary elections: 1. The coalition "For a Better Macedonia" led by VMRO-DPMNE 2. Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA) 3. Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) 4. Coalition led by SDSM 5. Coalition "For Change and Justice" (FRODEM, DEMOS, DS MORO-RP) 6. Party of Democratic Prosperity (PDP) 7. Coalition "Alliance for Albanians" (DR-DPA Uniteti, NDP) 8. Liberal Party 9. VMRO - For Macedonia (VMRO - NP, OM, Dostojanstvo) 10. Besa Movement, and 11. Left.

Devastating Economic Indicators

The situation in Macedonia is further complicated by devastating economic indicators, which are a consequence of the long-term rule of VMRO-DPMNE and DUI. The government's policy is not aimed at creating added value, but at new borrowing to cover past mistakes and plug budget holes.

In Macedonia, the public debt per capita in 2008 was around 700 EUR, while in 2016 it was around 1,700 EUR. In 2008, public debt amounted to 1.5 billion EUR (23% of GDP), while now public debt amounts to 4.8 billion EUR (51% of GDP). The question arises as to where the 3.3 billion EUR was spent. It was spent on building administrative buildings, monuments (700 million EUR), increasing pensions so that pensioners would vote for the ruling coalition, dubious tenders, while a special item in the budget is "agreed services" which amount to 300 million EUR annually. 2,000 people have been hired who do not go to work, and their salaries are paid from the budget at 8 million EUR.

The current government borrows two million euros daily from citizens. The government borrows from domestic banks because it has a weak credit rating. The state's debt increased by 560 million EUR in 2016 alone. The budget for 2017 foresees a deficit of 310 million EUR and provides for new borrowing of at least 300 million EUR to repay old debts.

The World Bank (WB) proposes a more careful and serious approach by the government towards the economy, fiscal consolidation to prevent debt increase, and economic revitalization. How public debt is used and managed is very important. Projections indicate that public debt will increase in the short term.

400 million EUR were allocated for capital investments. Only half was realized in the first 9 months of this year. Macedonia needs to introduce a progressive tax rate, not a flat tax, to increase budget revenues; the rich must pay more, and this would reduce new borrowing. If tax collection were carried out more systematically, an additional 200 million EUR would be secured in the budget. The flat tax and low labor costs are Nikola Gruevski's (VMRO-DPMNE) advantages, as he believes this attracts foreign investment, while 400 million EUR are stolen on the other hand. Every invested dinar must be multiplied by 2 or 3 dinars. It is absurd that Gruevski sees low labor costs as an advantage, because with low labor costs, the standard of living of Macedonian citizens, which is extremely low, cannot be increased.

Other economic indicators are also not encouraging. Macedonia's total exports amount to 4.5 billion EUR, and total imports amount to 6.7 billion EUR. Thus, export coverage by imports is only 67.1%, and the deficit in the foreign trade balance is 2.2 billion EUR. The average economic growth is insufficient and has been around 2.8% in recent years, while for Macedonia's economic development and regular servicing of credit obligations, an economic growth of 5% needs to be ensured.

The Return of the USA to Macedonia

During the 10-year rule of the VMRO-DPMNE and DUI coalition, the state and democracy were stolen from the citizens of Macedonia. In the system of division of crime, VMRO-DPMNE was mainly involved in institutional crime and corruption, as it controlled all levers of power, while it largely left non-institutional crime to Albanian leaders (DUI). This is how the division of power and spheres of interest between VMRO-DPMNE and DUI functioned in practice. The then head of the Macedonian intelligence service, the Administration for Security and Counterintelligence (UBK), Sašo Mijalkov, also participated in this, possessing extensive criminal files on Albanian political leaders and businessmen, as well as on anyone who could pose a potential threat to the authorities.

It is fortunate that the USA has returned to Macedonia, after withdrawing following the resolution of the Kosovo crisis. The US response is becoming increasingly intense, because the system of authoritarian populism established in Macedonia cannot be overthrown using regular democratic institutions, such as elections, as these institutions are entirely occupied and (mis)used by the current authorities. The institutions of the Macedonian state are part of the problem, not part of the solution. Thus, under US pressure, the Special Public Prosecutor's Office (SJO) was formed in Macedonia, which functions parallel to the regular prosecutor's office, which is paralyzed. The existing system of governance is established to control every segment of society and to organize elections as needed, which would ensure the desired results. Analysts describe the situation in Macedonia as a state with colonized media, a colonized judiciary and state administration, and police used for theft. Therefore, the participation of democratic actors in such an established and imposed system helps the usurpers of power legitimize such an established authoritarian, criminal, and fundamentally perverted system.

The return of the USA is visible in Macedonia. The Americans are responsible for "tectonic" changes and direct interventions in the system and laws, while the role of the EU is different. It is reflected through media regulation, financial injections, encouragement and support for the EU accession process, assistance to civil society, etc.

A Balkan Version of Putinism

Russia is trying to strengthen its position in the region. This particularly applies to Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina (Republika Srpska), and these processes have intensified in Macedonia as well. However, we have a situation where Montenegro has made a step towards full membership in NATO, while Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić is directing his foreign and economic policy towards Germany and the EU.

The robust behavior of Russian President Vladimir Putin on the international stage attempts to create a different impression. However, Russia's international expansion cannot be matched by its weak economy, which is monocultural in structure and vulnerable to energy prices (oil, gas) on the world market. Russia cannot be a superpower with an underdeveloped and backward economy. Sympathy for Putin is mostly rhetorical and stems from national-Orthodox romanticism and attempts to imitate Putin in Macedonia. However, ideological sympathies and fantasies about close ties between Macedonia and Russia have no real basis or political weight.

Nikola Gruevski (VMRO-DPMNE) is in a similar situation, wanting to show all his power and supremacy in Macedonia, while on the other hand facing devastating economic indicators and the real threat of state disintegration. This is probably the only similarity between Gruevski and Putin. Seeking an idol in Putin while leading the country towards full membership in NATO and the EU represents a Balkan version of Putinism, which has experienced its complete collapse.

Gruevski-Zaev TV Debate?

The citizens of Macedonia have the right to be informed about the political offer for the upcoming elections during the election campaign. This primarily applies to the two main political rivals, VMRO-DPMNE and SDSM, namely Nikola Gruevski and Zoran Zaev.

Given that serious mutual accusations of crime and corruption have been made in recent years, especially during election campaigns, if fair and democratic elections are to be ensured, a public confrontation or television duel between Gruevski and Zaev is necessary, where they would present their election programs and address mutual accusations. If the confrontation does not happen, it will be a clear signal that the current authorities do not want to face the Macedonian voters and the court of public opinion, because citizens have the right to the truth for and because of Macedonia. Gruevski and Zaev will face each other in the 4th electoral unit, as they are both leaders of the VMRO-DPMNE and SDSM lists in that electoral unit. However, a TV duel is essential for the citizens, democracy, and Macedonia, as this confrontation has been awaited for 11 years and Gruevski has avoided it all this time. Poverty reduction, comprehensive social policy, elimination of dispersed higher education in every Macedonian town, emigration of young people, and solving unemployment must become priorities for the new government. The key challenge for Macedonia will be how to implement a peaceful and democratic change of power.