Montenegrin Parliamentary Elections 2016: Is Russia Looking for its own Dodik?

The International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyzes events in the Middle East and the Balkans. On the occasion of the parliamentary elections in Montenegro, which will be held on October 16, 2016, IFIMES has prepared an analysis of current political events in the final phase of the election campaign in that country.

Montenegro is entering the final phase of the election campaign for the upcoming tenth parliamentary elections, which will be held on October 16, 2016. The elections will elect 81 deputies to the Parliament of Montenegro, while 530,840 voters registered in the central voter registry have the right to vote. 17 political entities are participating in the elections, and the election threshold is 3%.

The international institute IFIMES published an analysis of the 2016 Montenegrin parliamentary elections in September 2016 titled "Montenegro: Elections For and Against NATO and EU Membership", link: http://www.ifimes.org/ba/9219.

The pre-election campaign has begun to create considerable uncertainty and fear in economic and banking circles about the "destructive" opposition, which could threaten the stability of the country. So far, this has been the dirtiest and most negative campaign, which has essentially boiled down to a referendum on the character and work of Milo Đukanović, the current Prime Minister of Montenegro and president of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS). The fear of instability and deviation from Montenegro's Euro-Atlantic perspective is high, as it is becoming increasingly evident that certain foreign powers have become increasingly involved in the election campaign. A criminal investigation has even been opened on suspicion of money laundering by individuals from the pro-Russian opposition Democratic Front (DF).

The rhythm and tone of the campaign are dictated by the destructive position of the Democratic Front with its negative campaign, in which Milo Đukanović's DPS has also become entangled, acting defensively as it too is primarily conducting a negative campaign focused on criticizing the opposition and emphasizing that these elections will decide on preserving the independence and Euro-Atlantic perspective of the country. In this extremely negative and polarized campaign, Ivan Brajović's Social Democrats (SD) stand out as one of the few actors on the political scene who are presenting their economic program and reflecting a completely different political culture, which is also reflected positively in opinion polls, as their rating is growing.

SDP and Krivokapić's Support Declines

Opinion polls conducted so far predict a high turnout in the upcoming elections, even over 70%. The balance of power between the pro-European ruling bloc and the opposition is quite tight. Therefore, the SD party, which emerged after the split in Ranko Krivokapić's Social Democratic Party (SDP) and which recently turned its back on Milo Đukanović and DPS after 18 years of coalition, could guarantee the current political relations for political and economic stability. The SDP's inconsistency could represent the end of Krivokapić's political career, as current polls show that the SDP is losing voter support and will likely not cross the election threshold. A larger part of the SDP's electorate has shifted to Brajović's new SD, which has simultaneously attracted other voters who were precisely put off by social democracy by the former leader of that political party, Krivokapić. Thus, Brajović has taken over the social democratic leadership position in Montenegro.

Russia Seeking its Montenegrin Dodik

Russia is strongly present in Montenegro. One can already speak of the expansion of Russian influence in Montenegro. According to data from the Montenegrin state statistics office MONSTAT, out of a total of 4,200 registered foreign companies, one-third are owned by Russians. It is estimated that over 10,000 Russians live in Montenegro, having purchased around 100,000 properties. Schools even operate according to the Russian curriculum, such as the Dukley Academy - Center of Continued Education in Montenegro in Budva. Russians have launched their own radio and print media in Montenegro, opened Russian schools, founded numerous sports and cultural organizations, and launched various private businesses.

Although not formally involved in political life, it is only a matter of time before they become involved and a political factor. According to intelligence data, about 2% of Russians already live in Montenegro. Certain political options in Montenegro are already serving the policy of the Russian Federation, which many of them do not hide. The role of the Democratic Front is very clear here, as are other political parties and/or coalitions that oppose Montenegro's full membership in NATO, and some even oppose membership in the EU. The same pro-Russian opposition Democratic Front has repeatedly accused the US of interfering in the electoral process and internal political relations in Montenegro.

Russia has no problem finding candidates for a Montenegrin (Milorad) Dodik, as most politicians offer themselves. Visits by certain Montenegrin party officials to Moscow are regular, and in this case, they bypass official Belgrade, which is trying to maintain relatively correct relations with official Podgorica.

The International Institute IFIMES believes that there is a low probability of a Montenegrin (Milorad) Dodik appearing and establishing himself on the political scene in Montenegro. The reason is simple: Montenegro has strong state institutions, unlike Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the emergence and actions of figures like Milorad Dodik are possible due to the weak functioning of state institutions. It is evident that Russia needs political puppets in Montenegro.

Decriminalization, Free Media, and Economic Freedoms

The situation with crime and corruption in Montenegro is similar to that in other countries in the region.

Montenegro is recording certain progress in the fight against crime and corruption, but the process of decriminalization is proceeding below expectations. Crime and corruption are the cancer of Montenegrin society, and the media are only partially free, while Montenegro is better positioned in terms of economic freedoms than many neighboring countries.

According to Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), Montenegro ranked 61st out of 167 countries in 2015, along with Italy, Lesotho, and South Africa, and has a lower level of corruption than Macedonia (66), Bulgaria (69), Serbia (71), and Albania (88). According to media freedom (2015 World Press Freedom Index), it ranks 106th out of 180 countries, with the status of a country with partially free media. On the 2015 Index of Economic Freedom, compiled by The Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal, Montenegro ranks a relatively favorable 65th out of 166 countries, representing significant progress, as Slovenia ranks 90th, Serbia 77th, Turkey 79th, Kosovo 84th, Italy 86th, while Bosnia and Herzegovina is in 108th place.

Montenegro has begun to fight against corruption and crime. An aggravating circumstance is the high level of crime and corruption present in neighboring countries, which, like "connected vessels," threatens the entire region.

Opposition vs. (O)pposition

A rather chaotic and schizophrenic situation prevails on the Montenegrin political scene during the election campaign. The opposition in Montenegro is deeply divided and would have great difficulty forming a new government if the DPS and SD did not secure a majority in the Parliament of Montenegro.

The relationships within the opposition are illustrative. The Democratic Front has set a condition for the "Ključ" (Key) Grand Coalition that their leaders, who served as ministers in Đukanović's governments, cannot be ministers in a potential new government. This would eliminate at least two leaders of the "Ključ" Grand Coalition. This represents a public humiliation for the "Ključ" Grand Coalition, which DF seeks to eliminate through the "decapitation" of its leaders.

Voters in Montenegro will have the opportunity in the upcoming elections to choose between relative stability or uncertainty, which could lead to the destabilization of Montenegro and the region. It is important that Montenegro independently chooses its path to the future in the upcoming parliamentary elections, without the influence of external factors, especially those that destabilize or can destabilize the country.

A strong non-governmental sector operates in Montenegro, which needs to be developed in the future, as it represents a strong corrective force for the government.