Oxford: If "gas crisis" starts, BiH and Serbia will suffer!

Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia would be the hardest hit if there is a disruption or reduction in the supply of Russian gas due to the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, according to the latest study by the Oxford University Energy Institute, the Bosnian news agency Patria (NAP) has learned.

The research by experts from this institute, published today, was conducted due to fears that Russia might cut off the supply of this energy source to Europe because of the Ukrainian crisis. It was concluded that most European countries are relatively safe and that, should a new "gas crisis" occur, there are reserves and other sources that could meet needs for a certain period.

However, as stated in the Oxford research, the 2009 crisis, when the gas supply was reduced and interrupted due to Ukraine's debt, hit the Western Balkan region the hardest, namely BiH and Serbia, because they do not have an alternative gas source.

However, the research states that both countries are relatively small consumers compared to other countries in Europe, from which it can be concluded that their position and vulnerability would have no significance in a potential "gas war".

Although, as experts conclude, Europe has the capacity to withstand a blockade of Russian gas supply in the long run, the crisis would certainly increase the price of this energy source, reports Patria agency.

Facsimile of the research: Europe can withstand the disappearance of gas

Nevertheless, it is stated that for now Russia has not officially announced the possibility of using its dominant position as a gas exporter as retaliation for sanctions or as a weapon in the geostrategic struggle over Ukraine, but it is possible and likely. Oxford's research also cites a statement by Gazprom's head that disruptions can occur if Ukraine does not pay for gas.

Bosnia and Herzegovina has been considering the possibility of diversifying its gas supply for years, but nothing concrete has been done, despite the will of the European Union for BiH to join an alternative pipeline and not depend on Russian gas.