Armed conflict in Kosovo: Even Vučić no longer has control

(Patria) - The armed conflict in Kosovo seems to have caught the authorities in Belgrade off guard. A day later, there are more questions than answers.

Even Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić admitted that he waited to "address" the public while gathering information, adding that everything happened in a "flash".

According to Vučić - as highlighted this morning on the front pages by tabloids loyal to the government - the sole culprit is Albin Kurti, who allegedly wants to drag Serbia into a conflict with NATO.

Vučić called on the international community to form the Community of Serb Municipalities, and for Serbian police officers to be stationed in the north, "as this is the only way to prevent further conflicts".

A series of wrong decisions

Regarding the armed conflicts themselves, which Pristina has classified as "terrorism", the Serbian president emphasized that the Serbs rebelled due to "Kurti's terror".

Currently, there are indeed many open questions, says foreign policy commentator Boško Jakšić to Deutsche Welle (DW), "first and foremost - what was an armed group of Serbs doing near the Banjska monastery, and what was the objective of that gathering?".

According to DW's information, the killed, wounded, and subsequently arrested Serbs are exclusively young men from North Mitrovica and Zvečan. They lived and worked in Kosovo, making it a mystery why both Kurti and Vučić mentioned that they were people coming from central Serbia.

Jakšić also points to the mystery: "It is not entirely clear why the Kosovo police are not releasing the identities of the arrested Serbs. There is, therefore, a whole series of ambiguities, but the political dimension is incomparably more important."

- Above all, it shows how wrong the decision was for the Serbs to leave Kosovo's institutions and the Kosovo police. It is true that Kurti provokes incidents, but given that Vučić is leading these negotiations and that he is the one who should ensure the safety of the Serbs, this is a kind of defeat for him - Jakšić believes.

Belgrade has lost the advantage

Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dačić stated that "those who supported the aggression against Serbia in 1999 continue their policy and support Kurti, whose desire is to provoke a war".

Dačić believes that the international community is practically allowing a conflict to occur in Kosovo, and states that "the Serbian people have the right to defend themselves and express their political will, and they do not want conflict with anyone".

The impression in Belgrade is that this turn of events did not suit the Serbian side, as it comes at a time when it seemed that Kurti was losing the support of international actors.

- I don't think Vučić is behind this action, but that makes the problem even more serious. It might mean that the president does not have, or has lost, control over militant nationalists.

Whether this is in conjunction with the Russians, who are mentioned, we do not know, but we can say with certainty that the Serbs have currently lost the advantage that Kurti had secured for them in recent weeks. The influence of Russia is indeed one of the components of the crisis.

I think that after the death of a police officer, there is no more talk about the Community of Serb Municipalities - adds Jakšić.

Who benefits from the status quo?

Vučić and Dačić have already met with the Russian ambassador in Belgrade, Aleksandar Bocan-Harčenko.

On that occasion, Vučić, as he himself announced on Instagram, informed the ambassador "about the fact that brutal ethnic cleansing is being carried out in Kosovo, organized by the prime minister of the provisional institutions of Pristina, Albin Kurti, with the support of parts of the international community".

According to Jakšić, the thesis of the Belgrade authorities that this is a kind of "Serb rebellion" due to Kurti's policy "sounds logical".

- But one mistake is constantly made: it is always said that a Serb has been arrested, but it is not said that he has been arrested because he is suspected of this and that. The mere fact that someone is a Serb should absolve them of any guilt, and in this way, tension is effectively raised - adds Jakšić.

The next moves of both sides are difficult to predict, and for now, international representatives are condemning the attack by the armed group on police officers.

Jakšić believes that "the usual phrase that is repeated in such situations, de-escalation, will be used.

- This will certainly happen. It is neither in Kurti's interest to escalate the conflict now, nor is it in Belgrade's interest even less so.

This will mean a return to the status quo, and that is the worst situation, because it seems to me that it suits both Kurti and Vučić, even if it is sometimes disturbed by incidents.

One gets the impression that what is called the international community does not have effective methods of pressure on these two to make progress - added Jakšić.