Can developments in Macedonia be reflected in BiH?

The signing of the historic agreement between the Republic of Macedonia and the Republic of Greece on the shores of Lake Prespa is not only an important event for these two countries, but its significance is far greater for the region, Europe, and probably much wider. We live in times of misunderstandings within countries, but also outside of them, and that is why it is a true rarity when someone finally gathers the strength, has the political wisdom and skill, desire and will to reach such an agreement. The dispute over the name has lasted for 27 years. Ever since the young charismatic Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras (Syriza) appeared on the political scene in Greece, and in Macedonia, for a full year, the government has been led by the young charismatic Prime Minister Zoran Zaev (SDSM), there has been no shred of hope that such an agreement could be reached.

Governments in Skopje and Athens have changed and have not made efforts to reach an agreement. This was particularly characteristic of Macedonia during the 12-year rule of the right-wing VMRO-DPMNE, which maintained tensions in the dispute with Greece through an ultra-nationalist charge, consequently ensuring its survival in power. To a lesser extent, this was done in Greece by the then Prime Minister and leader of New Democracy, Antonis Samaras, and the current leader of that party, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, as an opposition figure, which strongly opposes the reached agreement.

In the region, we have a similar situation regarding the Brussels dialogue between official Belgrade and Pristina, which will likely last for a long time, as the current regimes in Belgrade and Pristina, led by Aleksandar Vučić (SNS) and Hashim Thaçi (PDK), will be dedicated to dialogue indefinitely and will occasionally raise national tensions, while in the background they will cooperate excellently, have excellent direct communication, and get many things done through their associates. This is characteristic in the region for all clerical-nationalist, chauvinistic, and in many aspects, proto-fascist regimes. Bosnia and Herzegovina has as many as three such regimes (they differ only in nuances, according to the method and style of operation, culturally, according to manners and historical circumstances) within one country, which illustrates the complexity of the situation and its reality.

By chance, I happened to be in Skopje on Tuesday, June 12, 2018, when the historic agreement was unofficially coordinated and its signing announced. Relief and enthusiasm, bordering on the unbelievable, could be seen on the streets of Skopje. Is it possible that with the arrival of one man, Zoran Zaev, at the head of the Macedonian government, and his team, all of that became possible to change and even reach the signing of the agreement? On the other hand, remnants of the failed regime of Nikola Gruevski (VMRO-DPMNE), which had plundered the Republic of Macedonia during its 12-year rule, are still visible. This is a regime that secretly and illegally wiretapped 26,000 citizens, which economically plundered and stole from the state, estimated by some to be over five billion euros, which initiated the Skopje 2014 project and the antiquization of Macedonia, turning it into an antique shop. There are also unsolved murders, which relentlessly remind us of the reality in Bosnia and Herzegovina (the cases of David Dragičević, Dženan Memić, but also many others). The signing of the agreement with Greece is a capitulation of the previous policy of VMRO-DPMNE.

The Macedonian "Colorful Revolution", led by Zaev, succeeded through mass rebellion and citizen protests in the December 2016 elections to simply overthrow the hated regime of Nikola Gruevski and Saša Mijalkov, the head of the then Macedonian secret service and Gruevski's nephew, with a pen in hand. Nepotism, partyocracy, crime, and corruption have devastated a once ambitious country, which once had the same position and status as Croatia for accession to the EU and NATO. We see where Croatia is now, and where Macedonia is.

And when everything is considered, the inevitable question arises: who is bothered by the agreement between Macedonia and Greece and the resolution of the name dispute? After the procedures stipulated by the agreement are completed, the country will officially be called the Republic of North Macedonia, its citizens will be called Macedonian/North Macedonian, and the Macedonian language and Macedonian identity will be confirmed. The answer is clear: it bothers people who lived for and from crime. A similar situation exists in Bosnia and Herzegovina, because agreements and progress are not desired by those who live for and from crime. However, the important message here, coming from Macedonia, is that organized citizens, regardless of their ethnic, religious, political, or any other affiliation, through resistance to the authorities and with a pen in hand in parliamentary elections, can overthrow a brutal and hated regime. In BiH, it will be necessary to overthrow three such regimes. That is why the message from Macedonia and Zoran Zaev, who have become a beacon for disenfranchised and humiliated citizens in BiH, is important: to change the political landscape of BiH in the upcoming elections on October 7, 2018, and for that country to finally move forward, primarily by ensuring a better life for all its citizens.

Positive signals from Macedonia will influence the regime of Hashim Thaçi in Pristina and the regime of Aleksandar Vučić in Belgrade. The election results and the legitimacy they will invoke will not be able to help them, because these are regimes that have prepared everything, even election results for their own needs to stay in power. After that, the essential sorting out of things in Bosnia and Herzegovina will finally follow.

And what are the next steps regarding the agreement between Macedonia and Greece? Based on the signed agreement, the Macedonian government has prepared a Law on the Ratification of the Agreement and sent it to the Macedonian parliament, which will adopt it this week. The President of the Republic of Macedonia, Gjorge Ivanov, opposes the reached agreement and has announced that he will not sign the ratification of the agreement. After being returned to parliament and voted on for the second time, President Ivanov will have no constitutional means to further block the ratification of the agreement. And finally, most importantly, in democratic societies, the citizens of Macedonia will decide on the agreement in September or October this year in a binding or advisory referendum. If the referendum is binding, the deputies in the Macedonian Sobranje are obliged only to confirm the referendum result and thus implement the constitutional changes for the new constitutional name, the Republic of North Macedonia. Greece, after the first ratification of the agreement in the Macedonian Sobranje in the coming days, will send an official letter to the EU and NATO and inform them that an agreement has been reached and that there are no longer any obstacles to blocking Macedonia's path to membership in the EU and NATO. Joining NATO will be a guarantee of the territorial integrity of that country and, at the same time, a guarantee of security and protection for domestic and foreign investors. The start of negotiations with the EU will enable Macedonia to access EU funds, which will mean the arrival of fresh money and projects that will revive the struggling Macedonian economy. In Greece, after the foreseen procedures and constitutional changes in Macedonia are completed, the Greek Parliament will ratify the agreement, and thus the 27-year dispute will be definitively and formally concluded.

Vision, political courage, and work to ensure a better future for their countries and citizens are proof of what responsible and brave leaders at the head of their states can achieve. Zoran Zaev and Alexis Tsipras are the best examples of responsible leadership. However, Macedonia has suffered numerous injustices throughout history. Recently, the Ohrid Archbishopric (OA) marked a thousand years since its founding, and it is still unrecognized. Therefore, the next important step is the canonical recognition of the Macedonian Orthodox Church (MPC-OA), which has been contested and blocked by the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) for decades. It is important that the Bulgarian Orthodox Church (BPC) and the Ecumenical Patriarchate in Constantinople and Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I have become involved in resolving the mentioned issue. After resolving the name dispute, the canonical recognition of the MPC-OA is finally expected.

Doc. dr. Zijad Bećirović is the director of the International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana