Kosovo Facing New Elections?

LJUBLJANA, (Patria) - The International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyzes events in the Middle East and the Balkans.

IFIMES, following the loss of parliamentary majority and the Vučić – Thaçi talks on redrawing borders, on the alleged demarcation between Serbs and Albanians and the exchange of territories, has prepared an analysis of the current political situation in Kosovo and conducted a public opinion survey. From the extensive analysis and public opinion survey "Kosovo 2018: Kosovo Facing New Elections?", we highlight the most important and interesting parts.

Kosovo 2018: Kosovo Facing New Elections?

The current Government of Kosovo was formed in September 2017 and consists of the PAN coalition, centered around the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) of Kadri Veseli, Nisma of Fatmir Limaj, and the Alliance for the New Kosovo (AKR) of Behgjet Pacolli, with the support of the Serb List and MPs from other minority communities in Kosovo.

In early September 2018, the International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) published the analysis "Kosovo-Serbia Relations 2018: Vučić-Thaçi Agreement for Two Million New Refugees?", linkhttp://www.ifimes.org/ba/9566 (09/03/2018).

The Government of Kosovo, led by Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj, was formed with the support of Serb List MPs, acting on the direct order of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić (SNS) to Serbian MPs in the Kosovo Assembly to vote for Haradinaj's Government. The Kosovo Government soon lost its parliamentary majority, and without the Serb MPs in the Kosovo parliament, a decision on the election of the Kosovo delegation for dialogue with official Belgrade could not be made in September 2018. In fact, in early September 2018, a scenario was possible where Vučić would order Serbian MPs to vote for the election of the Kosovo delegation that would conduct dialogue precisely with him in Brussels. However, this did not happen. Analysts warn of a dangerous direct connection between Aleksandar Vučić and Hashim Thaçi (PDK), with the cooperation of Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama (PS), who, according to analysts, represent the backbone of political crime in that part of the region.

No One Is Satisfied with Thaçi

Hashim Thaçi's rule and his clan are characterized by nepotism, intimidation of political opponents and citizens, pressure on the media, racketeering, crime, lack of transparency, and corruption in all spheres of Kosovo society. The mass departure of young people and the working-age population is particularly concerning. The Kosovo Government has failed to stop this negative trend. Organized crime and corruption pose a significant threat to Kosovo society and the state. With the current government, the crisis in Kosovo has deepened, and citizens' dissatisfaction has increased.

According to Transparency International's 2017 assessment, Kosovo ranked 85th out of 180 countries in terms of corruption, placing it in the same group as Argentina, Benin, Kuwait, the Solomon Islands, and Swaziland (Source: Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2017).

The report by Reporters Without Borders shows that Kosovo is in the group of partly free countries regarding media freedom, ranking 78th out of 180 countries. Serbia is ranked 76th, Bosnia and Herzegovina 62nd, Croatia 69th, Albania 75th, Montenegro 103rd, and Macedonia 109th (Source: Reporters Without Borders).

According to analysts, not only ethnic Albanians but also members of minority ethnic communities are dissatisfied with the authorities in Kosovo. This is because they have not sufficiently engaged in combating organized crime and corruption, improving citizens' living standards, enhancing security, creating employment, attracting foreign investment, while most media are controlled by the government, political parties, and tycoons, and respect for basic human rights is at a very low level. The government has not changed its policy approach to develop effective employment programs, modify investment policies in business and environmental sectors, and above all, it is necessary to further invest in and train the judiciary and work on establishing the rule of law, to which less than 1% of GDP is currently allocated.

Vučić-Thaçi for Territorial Exchange and Population Resettlement

Aleksandar Vučić and Hashim Thaçi have initiated an initiative for the correction or redrawing of borders and demarcation between Serbs and Albanians, which means changing the architecture of existing borders. The demarcation would be carried out through the exchange of territories and the resettlement of populations, such that the north of Kosovo would belong to Serbia, and in that case, the formation of the Community of Serb Municipalities (CSM) would no longer be necessary, while a larger part of the Preševo Valley (Preševo, Medveđa, and Bujanovac) would belong to Kosovo, which it did until 1956 and which is referred to as "Eastern Kosovo" in Kosovo.

According to their opinion, achieving such an agreement would permanently resolve the problem of Serbs and Albanians. Analysts warn that this would not resolve the problem but would instead cause new problems, conflicts, suffering, tragedies, and at least two million new refugees. Part of this project is also the Prime Minister of Albania, Edi Rama, surrounded by his advisors from Kosovo who had excellent connections with the Milošević regime in the 1990s. The Kosovo opposition, primarily the Self-Determination Movement (LV) and the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), have strongly opposed this initiative and are demanding that President Thaçi abandon this political adventure, the high cost of which Kosovo might pay. LV has decided to organize mass protests against the disastrous policies of the current authorities and President Hashim Thaçi on September 29, 2018.

The wars in the former Yugoslavia were fought over borders, and despite these wars, those borders were not moved or changed. Real problems would not be solved in such a manner. The EU itself is based on diversity, and many EU member states are multi-ethnic, multicultural, and multi-confessional, which is why the Vučić-Thaçi initiative is anti-civilizational and anti-European. The Vučić-Thaçi initiative undermines the foundations of the EU and the US, which are multi-ethnic communities, and is directed against the concept of societies like the EU and the US. Behind this initiative lie Vučić's intentions to salvage Slobodan Milošević's failed Greater Serbia project as much as possible. Vučić and Ivica Dačić (SPS) symbolize Milošević's failed policies of the 1990s, which would mean that the loss of parts of Kosovo's territory would be compensated by the annexation of parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina, specifically the entity of Republika Srpska. This project also includes certain parts of Montenegro and even Croatia. Pro-Serbian parties in Montenegro, members of the opposition Democratic Front (DF), along with the Serbian National Council, are already creating such an atmosphere and have launched a signature collection campaign for a petition to annul the decision by which Montenegro recognized the Republic of Kosovo.

The implementation of the Vučić and Thaçi agreement would cause tectonic shifts in the region, new conflicts, suffering, tragedies, and a new refugee wave, affecting at least two million people who would have to seek refuge mainly in EU countries. Therefore, supporting such an agreement means taking on enormous responsibility and even greater uncertainty regarding the consequences of the agreement. Special units of the Kosovo Police "Rosu" entered the Center for Ecology and Sports Development in Zubin Potok, i.e., occupied the artificial lake and the Gazivode Hydroelectric Power Plant a few days before Aleksandar Vučić's visit to that facility on September 8, 2018. This marks the beginning of the implementation of the Vučić-Thaçi agreement on redrawing borders and demarcation between Serbs and Albanians.

International Recognition of Kosovo Halted

For many years, Kosovo has not been able to boast of progress in the recognition of this youngest European state. Although international circumstances have changed since Kosovo's recognition, the main responsibility lies with the Kosovo authorities, who have not seriously undertaken this difficult and demanding task. Thaçi, even when he was Prime Minister and later when he became President of Kosovo, believed that new international recognition would happen automatically. Serbia has actively engaged in halting Kosovo's recognition, even claiming that some countries have withdrawn their recognition of Kosovo. According to international law, there is no concept of withdrawing international recognition. Therefore, it is not possible to withdraw the international recognition of a state, and the regime in Belgrade knows this, yet it deceives the Serbian, Kosovo, and international public with such claims.

Analysts believe that the recognition of Kosovo has been halted precisely due to President Thaçi's activities, as his policies and initiatives have created additional uncertainty, and other countries are waiting to see what will happen in and with Kosovo before making decisions regarding Kosovo, including decisions on its international recognition.

Will Kosovo Become a State of Law?

Although Kosovo has a national judiciary, there is also an international EU mission called Eulex, tasked with establishing the rule of law in Kosovo. This is also the largest EU mission, which has been a complete fiasco. In addition to the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) based in The Hague, which is in the process of closure, the Special Court and Special Prosecution Office for war crimes (KSC-SPO) have also been established, but they are not yet operating at full capacity. Their full functioning is constantly being postponed. The reason is that Hashim Thaçi, with some of his associates, is trying to save himself from inevitable prosecution through these and similar initiatives, as this court was established precisely because of him and his former close associates.

The arrests of MPs Milaim Zeka from the Nisma party and Shkumbin Demaliaj from Haradinaj's AAK for publicly threatening the prosecution may be an encouraging sign that the prosecution and other judicial institutions have begun to do their job.

Analysts believe that the current situation in Kosovo has been detrimental to Kosovo's interests for a long time and that early elections would likely resolve the current complex situation and establish a new, legitimate Kosovo government that will be ready to face challenges, primarily how to position Kosovo in relation to Serbia and how to secure new international recognitions. The actions of Kosovo President Hashim Thaçi, who is trying to save himself through an agreement with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić at the expense and detriment of Kosovo, thereby endangering the freedom and independence of that country with irreparable consequences, are very dangerous.

Public Opinion Survey

The International Institute IFIMES conducted a public opinion survey from September 19 to 28, 2018, using the method of in-depth field interviews across Kosovo. Standard deviation +/-3. Sample control at 10%. Confidence level 95%.

The sample was a random three-stage cluster sample and included 1,114 surveyed adult citizens of Kosovo of both sexes. 63 randomly selected respondents refused to participate in the survey, and 39 did not fit the specified sample. Demographic data are from the Kosovo Agency of Statistics. The structure was approximately aligned with respondents from urban and non-urban areas. The ethnic, gender, age, social, and educational structure of the respondents approximately corresponds to the population structure of Kosovo based on data from the Kosovo Agency of Statistics. We highlight the answers to the most important and interesting questions.

1. Do you support Kosovo's entry into the EU?

- YES 84.1%

- NO 9.0%

- NO OPINION 6.9%

2. Do you support Kosovo's entry into NATO?

- YES 88.2%

- NO 7.1%

- NO OPINION 4.7%

3. How do you assess the current political situation in Kosovo?

- GOOD 27.8%

- BAD 66.1%

- NO OPINION 6.1%