Who is bothered by a successful referendum in Macedonia?

The International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyzes events in the Middle East and the Balkans. IFIMES has prepared an analysis of the final stage of the campaign before the referendum on accepting the name agreement between Macedonia and Greece, on September 30, 2018. From the extensive analysis "Referendum in Macedonia 2018: Who is bothered by a successful referendum in Macedonia?", we publish the most important and interesting parts.

The Republic of Macedonia and the Republic of Greece signed the Final Agreement on resolving the Macedonian-Greek dispute over the name and strategic partnership in Prespa on June 17, 2018. According to the agreement reached, the Republic of Macedonia will change or correct its name to the Republic of North Macedonia, abbreviated as North Macedonia.

The International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) has published a detailed analysis and public opinion research regarding the referendum in Macedonia with the title "Referendum in Macedonia 2018: Macedonia chooses between (self)isolation and a Euro-Atlantic future?".

The Final Agreement states that the signatory parties may hold a referendum on this agreement. The Republic of Macedonia has decided to call a consultative referendum on the reached agreement, which will be held on September 30, 2018. The referendum question is: "Are you for membership in the EU and NATO, by accepting the agreement on the name between the Republic of Macedonia and Greece?".

The total number of registered voters for the referendum is 1,806,336.

No one can abolish the Macedonian people, identity, and language

The referendum campaign is taking place in a heated atmosphere and with strong international support. The supporters of the referendum and the opponents of the referendum have dedicated the most attention to the issue of recognizing the Macedonian people, identity, culture, and language. Different interpretations of the Final Agreement from Prespa often occur during the campaign.

It is an undisputed fact that the signed agreement confirms the state-legal continuity of the Republic of Macedonia, confirms the ethnic affiliation of Macedonians as a people, and confirms and recognizes the Macedonian language, culture, and identity. This rounds off Macedonian statehood and confirms the identity of Macedonians as a people with all their elements. The signed agreement contains all the necessary elements that guarantee the existence of the modern Macedonian state and affirms Macedonians as a people.

Therefore, it is important that the upcoming referendum must not be a party issue and a subject of politicking, but a state, national, and non-partisan issue, because a successful referendum projects the future of the country through membership in the EU and NATO and guarantees the territorial integrity of the country, which has often been disputed in the recent past. It is important to explain and interpret the entire agreement and what it actually means for the Republic of Macedonia and its future to the citizens of Macedonia. However, the largest opposition party VMRO-DPMNE has not clearly committed to the existing referendum, but has called on its members to decide freely whether to participate in the referendum and to vote according to their conscience and conviction. The fact that the largest opposition party does not have a clear stance on a key national issue is surprising. However, within VMRO-DPMNE, a larger part of the leadership, party founders, and membership are aware of their historical responsibility and have called on their members to participate in the referendum, thus showing their democratic capacity to participate in the referendum as a form of democratic expression, especially when it comes to the future of the Macedonian state and the Macedonian people. It is difficult to explain the fact that the leadership of VMRO-DPMNE publicly advocates for membership in the EU and NATO, yet at crucial moments in Macedonian modern history, it does not want to clearly support the Euro-Atlantic commitment in the upcoming referendum. This raises suspicions that a foreign factor, primarily Serbia and Russia, stands behind the formation of such a stance.

For whom and in whose interest is the Macedonian President Ivanov working?

The President of the Republic of Macedonia, Gjorge Ivanov, has explicitly violated the Constitution and abused his position three times in two years. His impeachment has not been initiated in the Macedonian Sobranje because he is protected by VMRO-DPMNE, without which his impeachment cannot be passed by a 2/3 majority. According to the constitutional procedure, after the impeachment is voted on in the Sobranje, the Constitutional Court of Macedonia must make a final decision on his dismissal by the same 2/3 majority. The impeachment procedure has not been initiated for the stated reasons, although there has been a clear violation of the Constitution in a gross and obvious manner.

More precisely, the first case of violation of the Constitution of Macedonia by President Ivanov occurred during the obligation to assign the mandate to Zoran Zaev (SDSM) in accordance with Article 84, Paragraph 1 of the Constitution of the Republic of Macedonia. The President of the state must give the mandate (is obliged to) to the MP who has a parliamentary majority (the review is unique as to whether he actually has a majority in parliament or not). The second review, sympathies or antipathies towards the candidate and his political program are not within the competence of the President of the Republic. Contrary to this constitutional obligation, President Ivanov demanded that Zaev "swear" that he would not implement the so-called Tirana Platform in his program and fulfill Ivanov's other similar unconstitutional demands. Even after that, he did not grant the mandate until strong pressure from the international community followed and a general blockade of the country was threatened.

The second and third cases of violation of the Macedonian constitution are related to the same issue. Specifically, the President, in accordance with Article 75, Paragraph 2 of the Constitution, has a suspensive veto, i.e., the right not to sign the Decree on the promulgation of a law after its adoption in the first vote. The President's veto postpones the adoption of the law. However, if the same law is passed by an absolute majority in a second repeated vote in the Sobranje with 51% of the votes of all MPs, the President of the state is obliged to sign that law.

President Ivanov consciously refused to do so, causing a "minor constitutional crisis" on two occasions: when adopting the Law on the Promotion of the Use of Languages of Other Ethnic Communities and the Law on the Ratification of the Final Agreement between Macedonia and Greece. The constitutional system of Macedonia does not provide for such power of the President of the state, which allows him to block the work of the Sobranje, as the President of the state does not have such a constitutional position.

The question arises as to whom the President of Macedonia, Ivanov, is working for and what awaits him after the end of his term? Since information has already appeared in the public that after the end of his term in April 2019, President Ivanov will leave Macedonia and go into exile in an autocratic country, but before that, he will have to face the Macedonian judicial authorities due to his unconstitutional actions. It is clear that there are interests of certain countries, primarily Serbia and Russia, to prevent the success of the referendum, and the question arises as to whom and in whose interest President Ivanov is working? Serbia and Russia do not want to see Macedonia as a full member of NATO, just as they want to prevent the canonical recognition of the autocephaly of the Macedonian Orthodox Church (MPC).

Psychoanalysts believe that given that President Ivanov is a university law professor, his unreasonable behavior could be explained as the most likely difficulty the president has with his personal identity, or that President Ivanov is being blackmailed. If he is blackmailed, then he is not a free man, and this raises the question of whether he can perform the duties of the President of the state, which would entail his resignation or dismissal.

Who is bothered by a successful referendum in Macedonia?

Macedonia is facing the most important decision in its modern history. It is exposed to strong pressure from external factors with the collaboration of some domestic forces, which want to block Macedonia's path to full membership in the EU and NATO at all costs. Therefore, the referendum campaign is full of numerous false information and distorted interpretations of the Final Agreement between Macedonia and Greece.

A successful referendum in Macedonia changes the geopolitical picture not only of Macedonia but also of the region.

In a situation where the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić (SNS), has raised the issue of redrawing borders before the referendum in Macedonia, the importance of the referendum is even greater, as NATO membership guarantees the territorial integrity of the state[1]. It is precisely Russia and Serbia that do not want Macedonia to join the Euro-Atlantic integrations with the help of neighboring EU and NATO member states, and they wish for the referendum to fail, so that they can then proceed to divide Macedonia with the support of Greater Serbia, nationalist, and separatist circles from neighboring countries. There are only two options for Macedonia: Macedonia's path to the community of Western civilized states or to be part of a Greater Russian conspiracy with the ultimate goal of dividing and destroying Macedonia. Hacker attacks on Macedonia are already underway and will intensify as the referendum day approaches. Hacker attacks are directed at state institutions, the State Election Commission, while on social networks, through the dissemination of false information, disinformation, and propaganda, attempts are being made to influence the referendum will of the citizens of Macedonia with the aim of trying to change the will of the citizens in this way and prevent success in the referendum. A network of agents is deployed throughout Macedonia, especially among ethnic Macedonians, who, through their actions and recruitment of individuals, are trying to dissuade Macedonians from participating in the referendum or to vote against it. It is symptomatic that Serbia has appointed the controversial Rade Bulatović, former director of the Security Information Agency (BIA) of Serbia, as its ambassador to Macedonia. Previously, Goran Živaljević, former deputy director of the BIA, who participated in violent events in Macedonia, especially in the events in the Macedonian parliament when an attack was carried out on Zoran Zaev and his associates with an attempted murder on April 27, 2017, served as security advisor at the Serbian Embassy in Skopje. The regime in Belgrade maintained close ties with the Gruevski-Mijalkov regime until today.

In addition to preventing membership in the EU and NATO, a key reason for opposing a successful referendum lies in the phase that will follow, which is the long-awaited canonical recognition of the autocephaly of the Macedonian Orthodox Church (MPC), which Serbia and Russia jointly want to prevent.

Analysts believe that a successfully held referendum on September 30, 2018, will definitively open the way for Macedonia's full membership in the elite club of states such as the EU and NATO, thus ensuring its territorial integrity and creating conditions for the country's general prosperity. The canonical recognition of the autocephaly of the MPC, which this year marks 1000 years since the founding of the Ohrid Archbishopric (MPC-OA), is particularly important for Macedonians.