Zaev's and Macedonia's spirit spreading through BiH and the region

The International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana regularly analyzes events in the Middle East and the Balkans. On the occasion of the official visit of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Macedonia, Zoran Zaev, to Bosnia and Herzegovina on July 23, 2017, IFIMES analyzes the said visit and its consequences for BiH and the region. From the analysis "BiH: Zaev's and Macedonia's spirit spreading through BiH and the region", we highlight the most important and interesting parts:

By: Bakhtyar Aljaf, International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) – Ljubljana

The Prime Minister of the Republic of Macedonia, Zoran Zaev, accompanied by several ministers from his government, officially visited Bosnia and Herzegovina on July 23, 2017. His host was the Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Denis Zvizdić.

Analysts believe that the visit of the Macedonian Prime Minister Zaev to Bosnia and Herzegovina as the first destination in the region after taking office was not chosen by chance. The visit of the Macedonian Prime Minister carries a series of geopolitical messages and hints at future positive political processes in the region, through which Macedonia and BiH will gain new momentum and support from the international community on the path towards accelerated membership in NATO and the EU.

Although the Prime Minister of Macedonia visited and held talks with representatives of all state institutions in BiH, it will be noted that the relationship between Macedonian Prime Minister Zaev and the Chairman of the Council of Ministers of BiH, Zvizdić, is not only friendly and close, but their meetings have been taking place and monitored for a long time under the "watchful eye" of the international community.

The reform program already being implemented by the new Government of the Republic of Macedonia, led by Zaev, called "3-6-9", is the first step for Macedonia's serious breakthrough towards full membership in Euro-Atlantic integrations after a decade-long stagnation. Analysts believe that both BiH and Macedonia will receive the same, accelerated treatment in preparations for joining NATO and the EU. Denis Zvizdić, as the Chairman of the Council of Ministers of BiH, has so far shown that the international community can count on him, not only because of his sincere commitment to Euro-Atlantic integrations, but also as one of the future regional leaders.

It is quite certain that Zaev and Zvizdić will be joined by a constellation of professional and brave leaders from the region, such as Albin Kurti, the informal leader of the Self-Determination Movement (Lëvizja Vetëvendosje!) with a strong social democratic orientation, which represents a refreshment and novelty in Kosovo.

Who can be the Bosnian Zaev?

Analysts warn that it sounds paradoxical that in Bosnia and Herzegovina, a counterpart to Zaev, as a regional leader and leader of the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM), cannot yet be found among the current political opposition in BiH (SDP BiH and other opposition parties), which further strengthens Zvizdić's political rating, not only in BiH, but also at the regional and international level.

The situation regarding leadership is also differentiating in other countries. Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, who has already reached his political peak, are undisputed leaders in Croatia and Serbia, respectively. Plenković, who has not yet stabilized his government in Croatia, is leading Croatia in very strained regional and neighborly relations, starting from Slovenia, all the way to BiH, and involving it in the story of the so-called third Croatian entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In doing so, the fact that Croatia sacrificed Bosnian Croats is ignored, in order to establish sovereignty over the entire territory of the Republic of Croatia through the military-police operations "Flash" and "Storm". This was the "price" for resolving the so-called Serbian issue in Croatia, i.e., reducing Serbs to a decorative number in Croatia. This was part of a broader international consensus, and with that consensus, the then President of the Republic of Croatia, Franjo Tuđman, sacrificed Bosnian Croats and sealed their fate forever to live in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and closed the possibility of creating any ethnic entity (reserve) for BiH Croats within the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Vučić has a historic opportunity to try to transform Serbia into a democratic state, not a state that is still associated with all political instabilities in the region and beyond, starting with BiH, Macedonia, Montenegro, Kosovo.

Vučić certainly does not forget the very sensitive issues of Vojvodina, Sandžak, the Preševo Valley, eastern Serbia, the area around the border with Bulgaria, which will most likely come on the agenda, but also that Serbia will very soon be surrounded by NATO member states.

Vučić's position is complicated by the fact that he and his regime carry the heavy burden of the recent past of Vojislav Šešelj and Slobodan Milošević.

The West has learned a lot from the Yugoslav crisis, and that is that political leaders say one thing and do another. An illustrative example of such behavior was Milošević, and Vučić is one of his students, which is precisely why Vučić is under strong monitoring by the West, as his political rhetoric is increasingly disbelieved.

The Republic of Croatia, due to its involvement in the war in BiH and the proceedings before the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in The Hague, is currently complicating interstate relations with Bosnia and Herzegovina with all its might, but also with Slovenia due to the Arbitration Court's ruling in the case of arbitration on determining the border line between Slovenia and Croatia, by not accepting the decision of the Arbitration Court, i.e., international norms and international law, and thus questioning its three borders, and perhaps future issues related to Istria, which has already been discussed in the European Parliament (EP) by Italian right-wing parties.

Plenković could play a very important role in supporting Zaev and the Republic of Macedonia on their path to NATO and the EU, as well as an important role in relaxing relations with BiH.

In the West, they still believe that Prime Minister Plenković and President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović provide strong support to the President of HDZ BiH and member of the BiH Presidency from the ranks of Croats, Dragan Čović (HDZBiH), who closely cooperates with exponents of Greater Serbian and Russian politics in BiH and who believes that the so-called Croatian issue in BiH can be resolved without the so-called "Thirds", i.e., Bosniaks as the most numerous nation.

The close cooperation and the model that Čović adheres to show a recognizable (Greater) Serbian matrix, which was applied in Kosovo, and which offered solutions to all issues but without the participation of the majority nation, Albanians.

Čović is simultaneously a hostage of the so-called generals' lobby of the Croatian Defence Council (HVO) and parts of the Croatian Army (HV), who are burdened by the mortgages of crime, corruption, and some of them by war crimes.

Analysts believe that through further (re)definition of relations with the President of the Republic of Croatia, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, Plenković could free himself from other negative influences coming from the wartime HDZ generation and thus become one of the European leaders. The main test in attempting to establish his leadership, which must be accepted by the EU and the US, will be Dragan Čović, President of HDZ BiH and member of the BiH Presidency, who regularly and intensively works to destabilize the situation and destroy BiH, while at the same time trying to present himself as a supposed promoter of European values.

However, Čović's transparent, alleged pro-European political rhetoric is contradicted by facts, because it was precisely the ministers from HDZBiH, together on the basis of inter-party cooperation with the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) of Milorad Dodik (SNSD), who blocked BiH's access to the Transport Community and denied BiH about 500 million EUR in funds for infrastructure. Čović should know that nationalism, chauvinism, and fascism are not European values, which are moreover supported by crime, corruption, and partly by war crimes.

With his latest political actions, Plenković has shown that he possesses the confidence and political sharpness to oppose negative influences in his closer political and ideological environment. All regional leaders, including Vučić from Serbia and Edi Rama from Albania, will be tested on their support for Zoran Zaev and the Republic of Macedonia, and Greece, as an EU and NATO member, will soon find the much-needed compromise with the Republic of Macedonia regarding its name and access to full NATO membership.

Warning to Vučić!

Analysts believe that the visit of Prime Minister Zaev to Bosnia and Herzegovina is a kind of perhaps the last signal and roadmap for Aleksandar Vučić to join and support Macedonia's and BiH's path towards full membership in the EU and NATO. Analysts warn that in certain international political circles, there is a concept that through a new strategic agreement between the US and the Russian Federation, Serbia could become part of the Russian Federation's sphere of interest through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), whose members, besides Russia, are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, and observers are Serbia and Afghanistan. In this regard, according to reliable information in Brussels and Washington, certain decisions are already being prepared that are aimed at modulating the Dayton Agreement, especially when it comes to parallel special ties of the states signatories of the Dayton Agreement and their abolition or unilateral renunciation by certain states of parallel ties.

The decisions are primarily due to Serbia and its deviation from NATO and its political ties with Russia.

The fact that the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC), i.e., the Serbian authorities, have again this year not allowed the highest representatives of the Republic of Macedonia to celebrate August 2nd, the Day of Statehood of the Republic of Macedonia, at the Monastery of Saint Prohor Pčinjski, located in Serbia and where on August 2, 1944, the session of the Anti-Fascist Assembly of the National Liberation of Macedonia (ASNOM) was held, which decided to establish the Macedonian state as a member of federal Yugoslavia, is concerning.

By doing so, the Serbian authorities indirectly send a message that they still question Macedonia's statehood and the identity of Macedonians as a nation. Zaev, the citizens of Macedonia, and the SDSM are the initiators of change in the region. Zoran Zaev, with his SDSM and the citizens of Macedonia, has been leading a heroic struggle against crime, corruption, nationalism, chauvinism, and fascism for several years. "United in diversity" and "Truth for Macedonia" were some of their slogans with which they mobilized citizens of Macedonia of various ethnic backgrounds in opposing one of the most hardened and hated regimes in Europe.

The priority of all countries in the region is the restoration and stabilization of the fundamental pillars of democratic systems, and above all, a strong, independent, and professional judiciary.

Analysts emphasize that Zaev's arrival in BiH is initiating and reopening the "open wounds" of Balkan countries, which is a corrupt and (in)dependent judiciary, primarily for the Republic of Macedonia. If Zaev, with the support and help of the US and the EU, fights for an independent judiciary and state administration, and urgent action is required, then the judiciary of other countries, especially in BiH, must be constituted and act in accordance with European principles. Unfortunately, the current state of the judiciary in BiH is in the hands of a few nationalist apparatchiks stationed in the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council (VSTV), as extended arms of local politics, led by VSTV President Milan Tegeltija and the newly elected President of the BiH Court, Ranko Debevec, as Dodik's cadre, and acting Chief Prosecutor of BiH, Gordana Tadić, as Čović's cadre, which represents additional encouragement for Dodik and Čović to continue implementing their policies and mutual agreements.

Analysts warn that Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina will soon have to implement reform agendas, as the international community is fully aware that in the aforementioned countries and the Republic of Serbia, attempts are being made to establish a judicial system similar to the former rigid communist system when management came from communist centers.

Joint action by Macedonia and BiH will be a given in the future. Zoran Zaev is an opportunity not only for well-intentioned people but also for those who want to change their policies or align them with general civilizational norms and who want prosperity for their countries and citizens, regardless of ethnic affiliation, as was recently written in a journalistic article in BiH: "Zoran Zaev is the light at the end of the tunnel."