MONTENEGRINS A MINORITY IN THEIR OWN COUNTRY Montenegro - the Serbian Belarus

By Damir Rastoder/Politicki.ba

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As we predicted in previous texts - only a miracle could have happened for Milo Đukanović to win the presidential election.

A miracle did not happen, but a serious tectonic shift did, not only in Montenegro but in the entire region. 

We knew that Montenegro is a deeply divided society, but few expected that division to be in a 60:40 ratio in favour of pro-Serbian parties. In absolute numbers, Jakov Milatović received about 230,000 votes, and Đukanović 130,000.

It is indicative that in Cetinje, Milatović received as many as 2,556 votes (28.69%), in Rožaje 2,198 votes (16%), and won in multi-ethnic Bar with 54.5%. In Podgorica, he won an incredible 68.1 percent, in Nikšić 62.1 percent, and in Bijelo Polje 50.3 percent. 

Therefore, he triumphed in the three largest cities, hence the large difference compared to his opponent. However, this indicates that voters voted more against Đukanović than for Milatović. 

If any of the pro-Serbian candidates had entered the second round (Mandić or Bečić), the result would have been the same or similar. These were not classic elections but a referendum on Đukanović. 

Secondly, voters valued the salary increases during the past year, which are linked to Milatović, regardless of the fact that it was a classic populist measure without any economic rationale. Citizens had more money in their pockets, even though they could buy fewer groceries for it due to high inflation of 17%. 

In addition, Milatović also promised that the average salary in Montenegro would be 1,000 euros, and of course, no one cares that this is not within the jurisdiction of the president of the republic. 

Once again, it has been shown that the combination of nationalism and populism is a winning formula for a good electoral result in elections in the Balkans, and now beyond. Let us recall that Milatović was a minister in Krivokapić's government, which was practically formed by Metropolitan Amfilohije in the Ostrog Monastery. Two days before the second round of the presidential elections, the Metropolitanate of Montenegro and the Littoral of the Serbian Orthodox Church called on voters to vote for Milatović. The third reason for his convincing victory lies in the fact, and trend, that citizens are looking for new faces in politics, new energy, and a political offer, even if it is demagogic and insufficiently clearly articulated. 

Đukanović has been in power for more than 30 years, and this was an important weapon in the hands of his young opponent. 

Furthermore, it was evident that Đukanović reluctantly entered the presidential race, as the sovereignists did not have another strong candidate, which is devastating in itself. 

Throughout the entire campaign, there was a lack of energy, emotion, and passion that characterized previous election cycles. 

Material fatigue and oversaturation were more than obvious. 

Given all this, the defeat was expected. 

A difference of 20% in votes is more than worrying.

This practically annuls the results of the 2006 referendum. This does not mean that Montenegro's independence will be called into question now, but that official Podgorica will align its policy with Belgrade in the future, there is no doubt about that. Milatović will talk about the EU, but he will bring Montenegro into the Open Balkans. It is an exaggeration to claim that Montenegro will be an "Rs on the sea" (referring to Russia), but it is much more appropriate to compare it to the Serbian Belarus in the Balkans. It is sovereign, but not independent. The census planned for the autumn will show the percentage increase of Serbs and the corresponding decrease of Montenegrins. The sovereignist bloc is on its knees, and pro-Serbian parties are on a tremendous rise. In the next government, formed after the elections in June, they will have a two-thirds majority with minorities.

Montenegrins will be a minority in their own country.