Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2025: Between Institutional Paralysis and European Choice

For NAP writes: Prof. Dr. Hazim Bašić, member of the Presidency of Krug 99

Security crisis as a political symptom

The past year in Bosnia and Herzegovina was not just another in a series of political stalemates. It was a year in which political tensions and institutional confrontations, especially between state bodies and a part of the political leadership in the RS, took on the characteristics of an open security crisis.

The radicalization of political rhetoric, accompanied by concrete anti-constitutional moves, further destabilized the already fragile political architecture of the country. Such a situation forced the international community to react with a combination of political pressure, sanctions, and increased security and diplomatic engagement.

The presence of EUFOR, along with intensified military exercises during 2025, sent a clear preventive and deterrent message. The OSCE and other monitoring mechanisms have continuously warned of the risks of serious destabilization. The message is clear: without an active and decisive international role, Bosnia and Herzegovina remains exposed to the danger of long-term institutional paralysis and the gradual disintegration of the state.

Dysfunctional constitutional order and a captured state

The security crisis is not the cause, but a symptom. Its roots lie in the continuity of the political crisis, which stems from a deeply dysfunctional constitutional and legal order, incompatible with the logic of modern democratic states. For years, the constitutional arrangement has served as an ideal tool for domestic ethno-nationalist elites, often with the political and logistical support of neighboring countries, to systematically destroy their own state.

Policies of secession and further ethno-territorialization not only destroy social consensus on the future of Bosnia and Herzegovina but also consciously block its European path. In such circumstances, the role of the High Representative cannot be reduced to mere administrative presence; his powers, in cooperation with state institutions, must act as a bulwark against anti-constitutional actions.

The European path as a test of state functionality

The European integration of Bosnia and Herzegovina further exposes the depth of the internal crisis. Although candidate status has been formally confirmed, progress remains slow, fragmented, and strictly conditioned by the fulfillment of political and legal reforms.

The European Commission's reports for 2025 clearly state only marginal progress and warn of the need to refocus on the rule of law, institutional functionality, and the accountability of officeholders. These very mechanisms have been called into question by constant conflicts between the authorities in the RS and state institutions.

The European path of Bosnia and Herzegovina is impossible without strengthening state capacities, including the return of some competencies that were forcibly taken from the state during the war. In parallel, it is necessary to build a political, media, and social narrative that affirms civil society and overcomes the imposed concept of constituent peoples.

Constitutional reform as a prerequisite for citizen equality

The issue of constitutional reform remains the key political issue for the future of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Constitutional reform must be aimed at abolishing the privileges of collectivities and establishing full equality for all citizens. The judgments of the European Court of Human Rights are not mere legal recommendations but clear normative and political guidelines.

During 2025, the proceedings before the ECtHR in the case of Dr. Slaven Kovačević v. Bosnia and Herzegovina were also concluded under suspicious circumstances. Opponents of the judgment sought to question the appellant's credibility, which the Court did not accept. However, after the diplomatic-lobbying and financial engagement of Croatia and the High Representative, the Grand Chamber of the ECtHR decided on something that was not the appellant's claim at all, which casts a shadow over the entire procedure.

However, the merits of the judgment initially rendered by the Court's Chamber have never been explicitly challenged! It is precisely this Chamber's judgment that serves as a guideline for the direction constitutional reforms should take. Citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina should support political options, candidates, and individuals like Dr. Slaven Kovačević who consistently advocate for and fight for citizen equality and European standards. Because without citizen equality, there is no European path for our country.

The international community must also take some responsibility in this process, as the existing constitutional framework is the result of a peace agreement. It is time to finally acknowledge the fact that Bosnia and Herzegovina is not and must not remain a 'special case', but a European country with full rights to democratic and institutional sovereignty. A country where institutions have real power and do not serve as hostages to ethno-national policies.