The Balkan Theatre of Aleksandar Vučić

The International Institute for the Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyzes developments in the Middle East and the Balkans. IFIMES analyzes current events in Serbia regarding the initiative to launch an internal dialogue on Kosovo and the withdrawal of all staff from the Serbian Embassy in Skopje for consultations in Belgrade. We present the most interesting parts from the analysis "Serbia: The Balkan Theatre of 'Aleksandar Vučić'."

The Republic of Serbia, or rather its President Aleksandar Vučić (SNS - Serbian Progressive Party) and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ivica Dačić (SPS - Socialist Party of Serbia) are once again in the focus of regional events. Recently, Serbian President Vučić launched an initiative for an internal dialogue on Kosovo, and shortly thereafter, the entire staff of the Embassy of the Republic of Serbia in Skopje was recalled.

The alleged reason for recalling all staff from the Serbian Embassy in Skopje for consultations in Belgrade, which represents a precedent in bilateral diplomatic relations, is the unequivocally established intensified offensive intelligence activity of the Republic of Macedonia against Serbian institutions and bodies, with the involvement of a foreign factor. Unofficially, it is believed that the recall of the Serbian Embassy staff from Skopje for consultations was due to Macedonia's alleged possible support for Kosovo's membership in UNESCO. Kosovo has not even submitted an application for membership in that organization, as it has not fulfilled two necessary conditions, namely the adoption of the Law on Religious Freedoms and the Law on Cultural Heritage.

Why did Serbia recognize Macedonia only in 1996?

Despite constant repetitions by the duo Vučić - Dačić that they are friendly states and that the two peoples are close, the recent history of the two countries, the Republic of Serbia and the Republic of Macedonia, represents only a political phrase for single use.

Serbia established bilateral relations with Macedonia only on April 8, 1996, by which time Macedonia had already been recognized by more than 80 other countries. The question is inevitable: why did Serbia recognize Macedonia only in 1996 if it is a friendly and very close country/people?

The breakup of the SFRY began with wars in Slovenia, Croatia, and later in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The regime of Slobodan Milošević (SPS) is considered most responsible for the outcome of the Yugoslav crisis and the conduct of wars. This has been unequivocally confirmed by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in The Hague in its judgments. The (Greater) Serbian project, implemented by Milošević's regime and involving the Yugoslav People's Army (JNA), inspired by the Memorandum of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts (SANU), worked towards the creation of so-called Serbian para-states, or the "rump Yugoslavia."

Thus, the so-called Republic of Serbian Krajina was created in the Republic of Croatia, while the self-proclaimed Republika Srpska was created in part of the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Milošević's regime considered it necessary to create a new state based on the (Greater) Serbian project, which, in addition to Serbia and Montenegro, would include the so-called Republic of Serbian Krajina and the so-called Republika Srpska. Macedonia was also indispensable in these plans, as it was considered traditional Serbian land (Vardar Macedonia).

Since the (Greater) Serbian project failed in Croatia, and was partially realized in Bosnia and Herzegovina through the recognition of the entity Republika Srpska as part of the internal constitutional structure of BiH, official Belgrade realized that its plans for Macedonia as a future part of a new (Greater) Serbian state had also failed. These are the reasons why Serbia recognized the Republic of Macedonia only in 1996.

Serbia's role in the events of April 27, 2017

A violent intrusion occurred in the Macedonian Parliament (Sobranie) by "unknown persons," supporters of VMRO-DPMNE, who were allegedly dissatisfied with the election of the Albanian Talat Xhaferi (DUI) as Speaker of the Sobranie. Violence ensued, injuring, among others, Zoran Zaev (SDSM), the prime ministerial candidate and leader of the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia.

The fact that Aleksandar Vučić had close cooperation with Nikola Gruevski (VMRO-DPMNE) is important for understanding Serbian-Macedonian relations, as both the SNS and VMRO-DPMNE are right-wing conservative parties, and in many aspects, nationalistic and autocratic. Gruevski was once an advisor to the Serbian government and is deeply involved with structures in Belgrade. Gruevski's regime is responsible for crime and corruption of enormous proportions (it is estimated that over 5 billion euros were illegally taken out of the country) and for the illegal wiretapping of 25,000 people, which led to mass demonstrations against his regime, strongly supported by Belgrade and Russia.

Serbia wanted to maintain its influence in Macedonia while preventing Macedonia's full membership in NATO, which is both a Serbian and Russian interest. For this reason, an extensive Serbian intelligence network was established in Macedonia, which also provided services for third countries. It is not surprising that Goran Živaljević, former deputy director of the Security Information Agency (BIA) and now an advisor at the Serbian Embassy in Skopje, was seen in the Sobranie on April 27, 2017, during the riots and violence.

Security and intelligence experts believe that the Serbian intelligence service was actively involved in the events in the Sobranie, providing services for a third country.

With the formation of the new Government of the Republic of Macedonia on May 31, 2017, a new era began, with a clear Euro-Atlantic perspective for the state of Macedonia. Apparently, Macedonia is to become the 30th member of NATO, which is not in the interest of Serbia and Russia. In the meantime, the Serbian intelligence network in Macedonia has been exposed, which has accelerated Serbia's activities to level accusations against the Republic of Macedonia for its alleged intelligence activities against Serbia and its institutions, when in fact the opposite is true. Serbia has adopted the "attack is the best defense" tactic in its confrontation with Macedonia.

Internal dialogue for internal and external use

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić launched an initiative to start an internal dialogue on Kosovo. This is a rather unclear initiative, as the state of Serbia has its institutions. Dialogue and all activities on state matters should be conducted within the institutional system and through institutional action. Regarding the internal dialogue, it is evident that President Vučić wants to share or shed responsibility when it comes to Kosovo, as opening a dialogue on Kosovo inevitably opens a dialogue on the status of Albanians in the Preševo Valley (Preševo, Medveđa, Bujanovac) and their status.

Dialogue between official Belgrade and Pristina has been ongoing for almost five years under the auspices of the EU. Some results have been achieved; however, the dialogue is used by Vučić and his Kosovar counterpart Hashim Thaçi to prolong it in order to consolidate or maintain their power. That is why they recently elevated the dialogue to the level of presidents instead of prime ministers and governments, as these issues primarily fall under the purview of governments.

The activities of Vučić and Thaçi are aimed at preventing the Self-Determination Movement (LVV) and Albin Kurti from coming to power as Prime Minister of Kosovo. For this reason, with the help of Russia, they involved Behgjet Pacolli, a controversial businessman and leader of a political party with only four MPs in the Kosovo parliament, to switch to the PAN coalition camp, which is controlled by Thaçi, thus allowing Ramush Haradinaj to become prime minister, even though his political party has only 10 MPs in the 120-member Kosovo parliament.

Who is bothered by Zoran Zaev?

The election of Zoran Zaev as Prime Minister of the Republic of Macedonia represents a new impetus for Macedonia towards accelerated membership in NATO, and later the EU. With his new approach to politics and governance, Zaev has become an inspiration for progress not only in Macedonia but also a political refreshment for the entire region. The difference between Vučić, Dačić, and Zaev is that Zaev pursues an open, cosmopolitan, benevolent, and good-neighborly policy, unburdened by the mortgages of the past, unlike Vučić, who carries the mortgage of Vojislav Šešelj, and Dačić, who carries the mortgage of Slobodan Milošević.

Zaev's approach is diametrically opposed to that of Vučić and Dačić. Namely, the duo Vučić-Dačić try to present themselves as leading regional leaders who guarantee regional stability. This is only partially true, as the way they achieve it has been exposed. Vučić and Dačić constantly produce problems and crises and then present themselves as their solvers and extinguishers, thus securing their status as regional leaders.

By causing problems and then solving them, they transform from an object into a subject. This is the well-known policy of Slobodan Milošević from the 1990s, which was defeated and can no longer be sold anywhere, let alone in the West. It remains unclear why Vučić succumbed to Dačić, who is an opponent of Serbia's, as well as Macedonia's and Bosnia and Herzegovina's, entry into NATO, and is also an opponent of Serbia's membership in the EU. President Vučić is the person who ultimately pays the bills for the actions of Dačić, Aleksandar Vulin, Marko Đurić, and other hawks from his camp, as it is difficult to escape the impression that Vučić himself is behind such policies.

Political-criminal, chauvinistic, nationalistic, and pro-fascist forces in the region find it difficult to accept the fact that Zaev succeeded in uniting a broad coalition of political parties and citizens of various ethnic, religious, and political affiliations in Macedonia, united in diversity for a better Macedonia. Most political leaders in the Balkans base their policies on ethnicity, nationalism, chauvinism towards others and differences, while the quality of Zaev's policy is precisely the opposite, representing a new quality on the political scene and an impetus for positive change in other countries of the region.

The Balkan Theatre of "Aleksandar Vučić"

Aleksandar Vučić is increasingly becoming a primary issue and problem for international officials. The West learned a great deal from the Western Balkans in the 1990s. They learned from Slobodan Milošević that he says one thing, thinks another, and does a third. A significant number of key European and world leaders, with the help of their intelligence services, have realized that Vučić has further upgraded the former approach of Milošević. Therefore, they are aware of their responsibility to their domestic publics, as well as for their credibility and the credibility of their policies, to put Vučić and his policies under additional scrutiny, as they are increasingly becoming a destabilizing factor in the region.

Among European leaders, the greatest responsibility lies with German Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU), who spends German taxpayers' money in Serbia, and in return, the destabilization of the Western Balkans returns to her like a boomerang due to her support for Vučić. Another political paradox is related to Vučić; namely, as President of Serbia, he is simultaneously the president of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), which speaks volumes about his democratic capacity. Vučić has suspended democracy in Serbia, turning it into a one-person society, and has relegated the role of Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabić to that of a "political ikebana." This was also evident in the case of the manufactured crisis in Macedonia and the telephone conversation between Serbian President Vučić and Macedonian Prime Minister Zaev. Where is Serbian Prime Minister Brnabić in all these events and conversations, as she should be the one talking to her counterpart, the Prime Minister of Macedonia, not Vučić as president, who has ceremonial powers? History is repeating itself in Serbia, as the then-President of Serbia, Boris Tadić, unconstitutionally introduced a presidential system, and the Prime Minister of Serbia was given a decorative role. President Vučić has done the same in an unconstitutional manner.

Serbia is involved in numerous activities that contribute to the destabilization of individual countries and the Western Balkan region. It is known that Serbia is involved in supporting the opposition in Montenegro, a part of which attempted a coup d'état in October 2016 to overthrow Milo Đukanović (DPS). Also known is Vučić's support for Milorad Dodik (SNSD) and his policies, which threaten the territorial integrity, stability, and peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the region. Serbia's role in the events in Macedonia is the most current.

Analysts believe that the political mobbing of the authorities in Macedonia is part of a strategy to add the Macedonian threat to Serbia, in addition to the supposedly already existing Albanian threat, or to create an environment that would justify granting diplomatic status to the Serbian-Russian humanitarian center in Niš, which could soon become the de facto first Russian military base on Serbian territory. Dačić plays the main role in this.

By destabilizing Macedonia, there is an attempt to overthrow the democratically elected government, as local elections will be held in Macedonia on October 15, 2017. Creating a tense atmosphere and chaos would also help Nikola Gruevski and VMRO-DPMNE to return to power, i.e., for the current government to lose legitimacy in the local elections and for Macedonia's entry into NATO to be postponed or even prevented.

Analysts believe that the regional Balkan theatre, staged daily by Aleksandar Vučić, must stop and that Serbia, through political mobbing, intelligence activities, and destabilization, must not hinder sovereign states from making independent decisions about their present and future. Germany bears the greatest responsibility in this, as Vučić often invokes Chancellor Merkel and Germany and her support, and she must now curb and permanently stop Vučić.