ANALYSIS FROM PODGORICA - MONTENEGRO FACES APRIL UNCERTAINTY Unresolved voter list and abstention pose a threat to the country's future

Written by Nevena Kovačević

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The latest data shows that 63.6 percent of voters cast their ballots in Montenegro's presidential elections.

Initial projections indicate that the candidate of the Democratic Party of Socialists, Milo Đukanović, won just over 35 percent of the vote, the candidate of the Europe Now movement, Jakov Milatović, 28.8 percent, while the candidate of the Democratic Front has the support of 19.4 percent of voters.

The candidate of Democratic Montenegro, Aleksa Bečić, won 11.3 percent of the vote, Draginja Vuksanović Stanković 3 percent, and the candidate of United Montenegro, Goran Danilović, 1.3 percent.

Influencer Jovan Radulović won 0.8 percent of the vote. We emphasize that these are preliminary results, subject to change. Regarding the percentage of voters who exercised their right to vote, it is indicative that a significantly lower turnout was recorded compared to the 2020 parliamentary elections, to which several factors contributed.

First, Montenegro entered this electoral process with an unresolved voter list. The total population is about 618,000, while over 543,000 voters had the right to vote in the presidential elections.

It should also be noted that the number of registered voters increased by three thousand compared to the last parliamentary elections. If we compare these figures, it is easy to conclude that there is a huge disparity between the number of registered voters and the number of inhabitants, the reason being double-registered voters, whose number, according to forecasts by non-governmental organizations, ranges between 50 and 80 thousand voters.

Double-registered voters are those citizens who have left Montenegro, without deregistering their residence, and thus can exercise their voting rights in other countries, most often in the region.

If we were to look at the turnout percentage excluding the huge number of double-registered voters, the turnout, based on the real number of voters living in Montenegro, could be higher by five to ten percent.

Nevertheless, the low turnout also indicates an increased number of abstainers, i.e., voters who did not use their right to vote. On the other hand, considering the historical moment in which the elections are being held and the deep crisis the country is in, the pronounced passivity of voters is concerning.

Compared to the last parliamentary elections, citizens have shown a certain disinterest in political processes, which, to some extent, may indicate that the candidates do not have the strength to sufficiently mobilize voters and raise awareness of the importance of democratic resistance to the state of lawlessness into which two and a half years of government have pushed us.

In pivotal moments, for example in 1997, or in the first presidential elections after the referendum in 2008, turnout increased significantly, which also confirms that despite the unresolved voter list, we have an increased number of abstainers.

Election day was marked by minor irregularities, and there were no major incidents, which we can view as a positive aspect of this electoral process and an indicator of democratic maturation.

The dominant interference of Serbia, embodied in numerous disinformation we have previously reported on, confirms that the interest of foreign factors is very pronounced, additionally due to the fact that almost all candidates, except Milo Đukanović and Draginja Vuksanović Stanković, are implicitly or explicitly inclined towards Serbia and Russia.

Analyzing the results, the percentage achieved by the candidate of the Europe Now movement is surprising, given that it is a party outside parliament and currently, like the Democratic Party of Socialists, belongs to the opposition.

The preliminary results point to a very uncertain second round, especially if there is a unification of all entities of the former parliamentary majority, i.e., a decision by all candidates of that bloc to call on their voters to support Jakov Milatović, who, as a representative of a newly formed party and former minister in the government of Zdravko Krivokapić, managed to enter the second round.

As in the case of the Podgorica elections, the enormous influence of populist policies, policies without a clear and long-term vision, on the election result is evident.

The huge percentage of vote transfers between Democrats and Europe Now decisively influenced this election outcome. The lack of stronger mobilization of voters from the sovereignist bloc again pushes us into the trap of populism and orientation towards the Open Balkan, which the candidate of Europe Now advocates, as he emphasized several times during the campaign.

There will certainly be room for further and deeper analyses in the coming days, but what can almost certainly be said is that we will go to the polls again on April 2nd.