Aleksandar Vučić a factor of (in)stability for BiH and Europe

The International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyzes events in the Middle East and the Balkans. IFIMES has prepared an analysis of the situation and circumstances surrounding the announced visit of the President of the Republic of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, to Sarajevo (BiH).

The visit of Aleksandar Vučić (SNS), President of the Republic of Serbia, announced for September 7 and 8, 2017, to Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), and the BiH Presidency, as the official host, is being unjustifiably and disproportionately presented by some political circles as a top political event significant for Bosnia and Herzegovina and the region.

As a long-time political leader of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić has not done anything recognizably for the political stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina. On the contrary, by opposing BiH's entry into NATO and supporting the authorities of the Republika Srpska (RS) entity in their continuous obstruction of Bosnia and Herzegovina's Euro-Atlantic path, Vučić consistently, significantly, and actively undermines peace, stability, and the political-security situation in BiH, the region, and the EU.

Vučić's Support for the Secessionist Government of RS

Although the common link for most Balkan leaders, including Vučić, is the saying that the countries of the region must focus on peace and stability, as well as the future and cooperation, Vučić's actions aimed at halting BiH on its path to full membership in NATO and the EU, with the support of the current secessionist authorities in the Republika Srpska entity, not only endanger the region and the EU but also cause the greatest damage to the interests of Serbia and the Serb people in BiH.

Vučić's destructive policy is based on several key elements: failure to confront the past, establishing and maintaining a wartime ideological structure hostile to the West and NATO, a schizophrenic foreign policy fundamentally reliant on the Russian Federation, which causes instability in the region and Europe, internal autocratic rule most illustratively manifested through media control, and through unprincipled political support for Serbs outside of Serbia, creating crises in the countries of the region. Such a policy by Vučić can only cause continuous instability and new conflicts in the region and Europe.

On the other hand, the daily political acrobatics and attractions, the political theater staged by Vučić, as well as Ivica Dačić (SPS), Serbia's Minister of Foreign Affairs, in relations with EU member states, primarily Germany, and EU representatives, are noticeable. The strong support that German Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) has provided so far is definitely problematized, and soon the Chancellor will have to answer to German taxpayers whether the money invested in Vučić and Serbia by Germany is adequately valued or if Germany's support is merely a cover for destabilizing the region and the EU. It is expected that Chancellor Merkel will not be labeled as a political and financial sponsor of Vučić, whom many already label as the "Milošević of the 21st century.".

The situation is similar or even weaker with EU representatives. An example is David McAllister (EPP/CDU), the European Parliament's rapporteur for Serbia, who approaches and reports on the current political situation in Serbia and Serbia's foreign policy engagement in the region and the EU in an uncritical, superficial, and biased manner.

Ivanić's Idea of Territorial Exchange Between BiH and Serbia – A Relic of a Dark Past

The hosts of Serbian President Vučić in Sarajevo are the members of the three-member BiH Presidency (Dragan Čović, Bakir Izetbegović, Mladen Ivanić), each of whom has reasons to approach Vučić's visit differently. Mladen Ivanić (PDP), an exponent of Serbian interests in BiH, is trying to use this visit for a territorial exchange in the border area between Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The idea and wartime attempts to achieve a territorial exchange led to attempts at population displacement, which represents a relic of the dark past of the political projects of Slobodan Milošević and Franjo Tuđman, which led to ethnic cleansing, war crimes, and genocide. Ivanić is trying to revive this idea again.

Bosnia and Herzegovina signed a border agreement with Montenegro and did not problematize the issue of Sutorina so as not to endanger regional peace and stability, and now Ivanić comes with concrete proposals for territorial exchange. Ivanić is trying to be a political copy-paste of Milorad Dodik (SNSD), and both are co-responsible for Serbia's destructive policy towards BiH. At the same time, Ivanić is a "Trojan horse" for the Alliance for Change, as he has "crossed over" to Dodik's camp for some time now, while formally presenting himself as one of the key politicians of the Alliance for Change, which he is undermining from within. Dragan Čović (HDZBiH) welcomes Vučić in a relaxed manner, as their policies towards BiH align. Vučić has nothing against the formation of the so-called Third Entity, and both are declaratively so-called promoters of European values and international cooperation between the countries of the region, mostly negative. In essence, they are promoters of Russian interests in BiH and the region. Croats in BiH, thanks to Čović, are increasingly becoming Serbs-Catholics politically, according to Garašanin's "Načertanija." Čović is actively working to establish his own representation (Embassy) of the so-called Third Entity in Washington (USA). Bakir Izetbegović (SDA), due to the international community, should give the impression of a politician who is part of a regional agreement and solution, and be a "good host" who will not "raise difficult issues" and should "turn a blind eye" to Vučić's active destructive policy.

What is Vučić Bringing to His Official Visit to BiH?

Aleksandar Vučić is visiting BiH with the baggage of a politician who has involved Serbian policy in destabilizing events in Macedonia, Montenegro, Croatia, Kosovo, and BiH, and has "certified" this policy with the announcement of the adoption of a Declaration on the Protection of Serbs and the Preservation of the Serbian People, by which Serbia will become a guarantor of the protection of Serbs outside of Serbia and through which it seeks to institutionalize or legitimize Serbia's political interference in the countries of the region.

Vučić is visiting BiH as the president of a country that has a double trade surplus compared to BiH. He comes as the president of a country that sent guarantees to the ICTY in The Hague to release Ratko Mladić on temporary leave a few months before his sentence was pronounced. Serbia is a country that is prepared to protect war criminals for decades while simultaneously providing guarantees to the ICTY and the international community for war criminals, and at the same time, for years, under Vučić's rule, refusing to arrest and extradite indicted associates of Šešelj who obstructed the trial before the ICTY by revealing the names of protected witnesses and legally undermining the trial against Šešelj. Not even official reports from the ICTY to the UN Security Council can "persuade" Vučić to extradite Šešelj's accomplices to the ICTY.

Vučić's political manipulations and deceptions go so far as to boast that he is the only Serbian politician who has not handed over any Serb to The Hague, while on the other hand, he omits the fact that indictments at the Hague Tribunal concluded in 2005, and since then there have been no requests for new extraditions. He comes to BiH as a president who, during his mandates in Serbia, has politically amplified alleged dangers and threats to Serbia and Serbs from "external and internal enemies," but also as a politician for whom ties with the Russian Federation are of the highest personal and state priority. The President of Serbia, Vučić, who denies the genocide in Srebrenica, is visiting Sarajevo on September 7 and 8, 2017, a city that was under an unprecedented siege for almost four years (44 months) by those whom Vučić is allegedly protecting today. He comes as the president of Serbia, which provided guarantees to the indicted war criminal Ratko Mladić, one of the key responsible persons for the committed crimes/genocide in BiH and a person responsible for the siege of Sarajevo.

So what can be expected from Aleksandar Vučić's visit? That he will empathize with the citizens of Sarajevo and say that he is sorry for the aforementioned events and suffering. That he will offer an apology, while at the same time denying the committed genocide and providing guarantees and protection to Ratko Mladić and Vojislav Šešelj (SRS) for the crimes committed in Sarajevo and BiH.

Therefore, Aleksandar Vučić's visit is unimportant, but also hypocritical and useless for those who are sincere and firmly committed to cooperation and the well-being of the states, communities, and peoples of the region.

With his visit to Sarajevo, Aleksandar Vučić will definitively lose the attributes of a reformist politician and one of the region's leaders, which he gained precisely from the international community. If the EU wishes to continue supporting Vučić, then by all accounts, it is entering the same vicious cycle it had with Slobodan Milošević, whom it eventually had to eliminate by indicting him for crimes committed in Kosovo and through the process before the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in The Hague.

Vučić's Failed Attempt to Destabilize Macedonia

The opposition in Macedonia, led by Zoran Zaev (SDSM), succeeded in fighting for and defeating the pro-Russian and criminal government (VMRO-DPMNE) in Macedonia. In order to discredit them, Vučić maliciously and falsely accused the new Macedonian authorities of allegedly wiretapping and endangering Serbia's interests. Zoran Zaev, who is often called the "light at the end of the tunnel" in the region and who is becoming a symbol of the new spirit of regional cooperation, has become a target of Aleksandar Vučić, as have or will soon become Denis Zvizdić (SDA), Chairman of the Council of Ministers of BiH, the most popular Albanian politician Albin Kurti (LVV), and indeed all those who work for the benefit of their states, peoples, regional cooperation, and who are committed to Euro-Atlantic integration.

The role of Andrej Plenković (HDZ), Prime Minister of Croatia, is still an open question. He is and could be one of the pillars of future regional cooperation if he frees himself from the influence of the so-called generals' lobby, the political-intelligence underworld, and a retrograde part of the Roman Catholic Church (RCC). If he does not do so, Plenković will go down in history as a politician who did not initiate positive processes in Croatia and who is involved in and will be co-responsible for the destabilization of BiH and the region.

The "Specter" of Srebrenica Looms Over Vučić's Visit to Sarajevo

Without fundamental and in-depth changes in foreign and domestic policy towards the countries of the region, Aleksandar Vučić is nothing more than a factor of instability and, along with Ivica Dačić, represents a "traveling Balkan theater of (in)stability.".

Over the announced upcoming traveling Balkan theater "Aleksandar Vučić" in Sarajevo, the "specter" of Srebrenica looms, as well as the as yet unexplained circumstances under which the incident in Potočari occurred on July 11, 2015, during Vučić's visit to the Memorial Center in Potočari, where the victims of the Srebrenica genocide are buried.

An independent investigation has shown that the incident in Potočari involving Vučić was not accidental and, by all accounts, was a staged event.

Upon entering Bosnia and Herzegovina on July 11, 2015, according to official announcements from Serbia, about twenty police officers were scheduled to accompany Vučić. Unofficially and illegally, several times more Serbian police officers entered BiH than the officially announced number. According to past practice, a delegation is accompanied by four to five police officers, and other security measures are handled by the host country.

Did the official investigation go in the wrong direction, intentionally or unintentionally? Independent investigators ask why the individuals who formed the security escort were not questioned, especially the person who opened the umbrella for Vučić in Potočari/Srebrenica and is visible in video/photo footage. Why were persons such as Darko Došić, Bratislav Petrović, Dragoslav Rabrenović, Dejan Sekulić, and Miladin Mužemić not questioned and interrogated? According to operational intelligence, they were involved in the provoked incident in Potočari on July 11, 2015. Why were they not questioned, detained, held, and some of the listed individuals not arrested? Perhaps Vučić's visit to Sarajevo is an opportunity to operationally process these individuals and learn the truth about the staged incident in Potočari on July 11, 2015.