By Armin Sijamić
Americans elected Donald Trump as the 47th president by an overwhelming majority. The poor performance of Kamala Harris and the Democrats was compounded by defeats in the race for both houses of the American Congress. Such a heavy defeat for Harris and the Democrats is largely their fault, as Trump and the Republicans supporting him remained where they always stood.
The whole world eagerly awaited the results of the American elections, especially the presidential ones. Days of vote counting and street unrest due to the refusal to accept defeat were anticipated, and most of the West expected Harris to win. Moreover, they were rooting for her victory.
The most famous predictor of American presidential elections, Allan Lichtman, also made a mistake, and his "keys" in the tool he developed proved ineffective yesterday. On election night, he was live on social media, unsuccessfully searching for the "logic" and "mathematics" behind Trump's vote gains. His shock was even greater when he compared Harris's results to Joseph Biden's four years prior. In short, Harris received fewer votes than Biden, even among women and minorities.
Biden's Conflict with Everyone
That many were turning their backs on Biden and the Democrats could be seen after the debate where Trump defeated him. In the following days, the tone of reporting by major American (and Western) media outlets and news agencies simply changed. From that moment on, the notorious Trump became more acceptable and less criticized, even though he continued to act as before and visit courtrooms across the United States.
Biden's conflict with what Donald Trump's supporters often call the "deep state" continued with his refusal to withdraw from the race, even using the phrase that only "God" could make him withdraw. And before and after that, Biden clashed with his supporters among students, young people, progressive Democrats, and Muslims, who demanded that he stop aid to Israel due to the war in the Gaza Strip.
Biden was also penalized by Israel supporters for his hesitation to unconditionally support Netanyahu. This was the beginning of the end for Biden's policies, due to his inability to stop the war in the Gaza Strip.
At home, problems mounted. Inflation, the influx of illegal migrants, tens of billions of dollars Biden sent to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, are just some of the reasons why well-designed economic and social policies failed to yield results. At the same time, Harris failed to distance herself from Biden's image and actions, despite unconvincingly repeating that she was not Biden.
Election Day
Trump's convincing victory seems to have surprised no one, looking at the outcome a day later. In addition to traditionally Republican states, Trump won in almost all "swing states," and in some of them, the voters who were supposed to tip the balance were young people, minorities, immigrants and their descendants, workers, and women, all of whom are largely Democratic voters.
They did not trust Kamala Harris and the Democrats, while Trump had strong support from parts of the American establishment, which is sometimes difficult to detect. But what was visible was that the richest man in the world, Elon Musk, an immigrant from South Africa, stood behind him, offering Trump assistance on his social network X, as well as by buying votes. Namely, he gave a million dollars daily to voters in "swing states," and even the court did not challenge this right. Such an influence in politics by the richest man in the world was likely supported by those with whom he communicates and does business daily.
Although not all votes have been counted, Trump will receive more or less the same number of votes in this election as in the previous one, around 74 million. Biden's 81 million for Harris is unattainable, and she will likely have about ten million fewer votes by the end of the count. Thus, Trump once again mobilized his voters, and both times lost in New York, where he was born and built his business career, while Democratic voters turned their backs on their candidates.
Some data shows that Kamala Harris received fewer votes in every group compared to Biden, but detailed data on this is not yet available. What is known is that in some strong Democratic strongholds, from which they drew the largest number of votes, for example, from large urban centers, Harris received a few percent fewer votes than expected. This was particularly felt in the "swing states," and ultimately resulted in a convincing defeat.
Perhaps the most devastating fact for Kamala Harris is that women, whom she targeted and whose votes she counted on, trusted her less than Biden. Her insistence on issues of abortion and gender rights proved to be a fiasco. Trump's past in his relationships with women and the numerous accusations he faces in court were also not enough for American female voters to stand behind Harris.
On the other hand, Trump tried to appeal to everyone he could, in every possible way. For example, to African Americans, who most often vote for Democrats, he said that the influx of illegal migrants means fewer jobs for them. To workers, he said they lost their jobs because previous governments moved their jobs to China. To those who expect help from the state, he said the money is in Ukraine... At the same time, Trump sought voters where he never had before, in groups that some previous election campaigns had most often bypassed.
Waiting for January 20th
Trump will take office on January 20th next year, meaning the Biden and Harris duo will remain in power for about seventy more days. During this period, they could make some important decisions, which is not new.
On the other hand, Trump will prepare the ground for his return to power, revealing his associates for the most important positions in his administration. During the election campaign, he said he would stop the war in Ukraine before taking office, and told Netanyahu that he must end the war in the Gaza Strip as soon as possible. The approach to these issues could indicate his policies for the next four years.
While he was campaigning, and especially after the aforementioned debate with Biden, numerous world leaders visited him to discuss his future moves. But most of them who visited him did not show euphoria about his victory, because it is clear that neither Trump nor anyone else has a magic wand. After all, this was evident during his first term.
In the coming weeks, it will become clearer what were just campaign promises and what is the real scope of Trump's policies. The media personality and politician with a sharp tongue will once again enter the world of realpolitik, which is not the same as when he left the White House four years ago.
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