By: Armin Sijamić
The year ahead will be another one likely shaped by the actions of the United States – the world's greatest power, and its president Donald Trump, who pursues a policy for which even the best connoisseurs of the country's political history cannot find similar examples.
Summarizing 2025 is no easy task, as everything that happened in the past year requires much more space than one article allows due to its scope. This is a result of some economic and political processes accelerating, and states and movements that refuse to comply with the interests of great powers bearing the brunt of it.
One of those who worked the most on this was Trump. In the first year of his second term, he simultaneously worked on maintaining the existing balance of power and changing his country's position. Trump found himself in this paradox after the strengthening of numerous countries, primarily China and its allies, who resist American dominance. This is a process that Washington wants to stop and then turn to its advantage, which was clear even before Trump returned to the White House.
Therefore, it might be easier to look back at the year ahead, as it will show the results of Trump's policies from the past year towards Europe, the Middle East, which in the American president's vision should be subordinate to Israel's interests, Latin America, where Washington is once again advocating the Monroe Doctrine, and China, which he has not yet contained despite initiating a trade and economic war.
Trump's Calculation
One of the assumptions that guided all American presidents since the collapse of the USSR, although not directly part of American strategic documents, is that the United States should have enough strength to wage two wars simultaneously. While this primarily refers to military strength, it also implies the ability of the American economy and society to endure these wars.
If the world is viewed through Trump's eyes, then the front is everywhere. Allies in Denmark and the European Union have also come under Trump's attack, and he is shifting the burden of financing Ukraine to the Europeans, creating conditions for business with Russia and for ideological conflict in the West.
Everything Trump has done in the Middle East over the past year will soon be put to the test of time, as Washington and Tel Aviv seek ways to inflict new blows on Iran and its allies in the region. After the United States, with the help of Turkey and a few Arab states, overthrew Bashar al-Assad's regime and brought former Al-Qaeda member Ahmed al-Sharaa to power, Trump now wants to ensure that Israel gets everything it wants in Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, and across the Middle East.
There is no doubt that special attention will be paid to Central and South America this year, from where it seeks to push out the influence of any other power.
In the past year, Trump has shown that the focus of his foreign policy is on that part of the world. In addition to Argentina, Ecuador, Brazil, and Colombia, Trump has also interfered in the affairs of Honduras, after previously praising the government in El Salvador. Trump will continue to try to overthrow the Cuban and Venezuelan governments and change the presidents in Colombia and Brazil.
The processes in Latin America are closely linked to the American attempt to contain China. In "America's backyard," according to Washington, there is no room for China. Suppressing Chinese influence worldwide also depends on the results of such attempts at America's borders. From there, Trump intends to push China out, and then from many parts of Europe, Africa, Asia, and the Pacific.
Response of the Rebels
Due to Trump's policy, the "rebellion" of what is called the "global south" will continue. This was recently described by Finnish President Alexander Stubb in an article, stating that clear blocs are already clashing and dozens of countries must choose sides.
This confrontation is happening before our eyes, as the current foundations of the international system are being dismantled, governments are being overthrown worldwide, internationally recognized states are being divided, and political leaders are being liquidated, while China faces wars on its borders. A few years ago, this was unimaginable.
China's stance will be crucial for the success of American plans. Not only is China keeping the Russian economy, exposed to sanctions, afloat, but it also serves as an engine of development for many other countries. China does not just export ideology. China alone rivals the West in many areas, including technology, which has been an advantage for Europe and Washington over the rest of the world for centuries. One of the battlegrounds between Washington and Beijing will be artificial intelligence (AI), in a fight where there are only two serious contenders and the rest of the world observing.
Many see salvation in China. This applies particularly to numerous African and Asian countries, as well as a few in Latin America and BRICS members. They all count on Chinese loans, markets, technology, and investments...
Trump's policy has led Europe to doubt Washington's intentions. The conflict between Trump and parts of European governments will come to the fore this year. Russia, and also China, which Washington will likely not be able to break without European help, will rejoice the most at this conflict.
Processes to Which the Weak Adapt
Thus, what began to happen from Russia's aggression against Ukraine and the start of the war in the Gaza Strip could enter its next phase this year, either through the continuation of clashes along the same lines or through reaching some agreements on the division of influence between great and regional powers.
These geopolitical conflicts are creating a new reality on the ground and leading to numerous changes. There is no doubt that the escalation of relations between the United States and China will lead to such a situation in other parts of the world.
This is particularly dangerous for small states and for those showing instability of any kind. Major political shifts bring new realities on the ground, and weaker actors must adapt to them. This also applies to the Balkans, which has been impoverished and devastated in various ways. The clash between the West and Russia has created new realities there, and the escalation of the clash between Washington and Beijing may lead to new situations reminiscent of the story of Naftna industrija Srbije (NIS).
All in all, the year ahead could be as turbulent as the previous one. What many have been announcing for years, when talking about the change of the world order, is happening before our eyes and is sometimes unimaginably fast. In such circumstances, great powers can be expected to behave solely in accordance with the status they hold.
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