By Armin Sijamić
Crises around the world, in which some European countries are involved directly or indirectly, raise questions about the future of the European Union. In just a few months, from optimistic announcements about Brussels' readiness for a new world to catastrophic predictions of Europe's future.
"The threat of NATO's collapse, easing sanctions on Russia, a huge energy crisis in Europe, halting aid to Ukraine, and blocking loans to Kyiv by Orban - all of this looks like Putin's dream plan," wrote Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on social network X on Thursday, in another exchange of views between Polish and Hungarian officials on this platform.
"Europe is heading towards one of the most severe economic crises in its history. The world is facing a serious energy crisis. Europe is in serious danger. The only way out is to lift the sanctions imposed on Russian energy. Immediately. We must not think about Putin, but about our country and our peoples. Instead of inciting war, love and save your country, Donald!" wrote Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on the same network on the same day.
This discussion between Tusk and Orban, the prime ministers of two countries that have drifted apart since Russia's aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, shows the lack of ideas and the wrong direction of European policy in recent years. While for one, Russia under Vladimir Putin is the source of all problems that Europe and the West have, for the other, Russia is the solution to all problems.
All this at a time when some claim that Russia is on the verge of collapse and at the same time a danger to some European countries, while others claim that Russia is a world power that can help the West despite not being able to defeat poor Ukraine, and when almost all European nations are fleeing Moscow's policies.
How does Europe see the world?
There are still no answers to the questions of how Europe and the West got to where they are today, at least not from those whose job it is. Moreover, some who try to answer these and similar questions are often branded as enemies of states, policies, peoples, ideologies...
Such an approach by the leaders of the European Union and major European powers, which Poland and Hungary have not been considered for a long time, reflects the framework in which they think about European and world politics. It seems that the current generation of politicians in the West can neither ideologically nor practically escape the vicious cycle of conditional and wrong policies.
Thus, for example, they allowed Putin to annex Crimea from Ukraine without consequences, left Kyiv dependent on the United States and the United Kingdom in the early days of the war, only to now hear messages from President Donald Trump that they must engage in a war against Iran if they do not want Washington to change its policy towards Europe. And a war in the Middle East, from where millions of immigrants and large quantities of energy come to Europe - after the supply from Russia stopped - was not in the interest of the European Union.
Tusk attributes all of Europe's problems, even the threat of NATO's collapse, to Putin and does not advocate for changes in the European Union's policy towards its near and far neighborhood. Such a perception of the world, which is changing at an incredible speed, will undoubtedly lead to wrong decisions and consequences for Europe and European peoples. And that will not be Putin's fault.
Who are the (un)friends of the European Union?
However, failures have not prevented European officials from dreaming of a new world. In this new world, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sees Europe as strong and autonomous in relation to the United States, China, Russia, India...
In a time of wars on Europe's borders and in its immediate neighborhood, and when there is a real possibility that Europe could run out of cheap or any energy, Brussels has no plan to prevent it, or at least does not show it to the public. Spontaneity in action and opposition to the United States, Russia, Iran, Israel, China... is evident from crisis to crisis and almost always as damage control.
If Tusk is right that Europe is threatened by the collapse of NATO and an energy crisis, then there should be a plan to prevent it. That's what Poles expected from him when they gave him their trust in the elections over the conservatives who believe in a strong military, a firm policy towards Russia, and following the United States.
But there is no such plan. France and Germany, expected to lead the European Union, have no plan. Neither does Poland under Tusk. Moreover, crises are multiplying, and European allies are increasingly on opposite sides.
Therefore, some are asking whether there can be security on the European continent without the United States and where to get energy if Brussels maintains its current course towards Russia and continues to support the wars of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. After all, who are Europe's allies and enemies?
Trump's return to the White House has brought these questions to the forefront again, in addition to bringing new problems for the transatlantic alliance, as seen in the issue of Greenland and Denmark.
Europe was not prepared even for a second Trump term, after his electoral victory in November 2024. European allies are lagging behind the current US administration, which is destroying everything in its path and disregarding criticism and appeals, even though Trump is asking them to share some of the consequences.
Washington is aware of European inertia. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told European allies in mid-February that Washington has no time to wait, that it does not support some European policies, and that it expects them to align with the Trump administration.
A few weeks after Marco Rubio's address, as on many occasions before, one of the favorite and most frequent European responses is - Putin's Russia is both the cause and the solution to the problems.
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