By Armin Sijamić
Former US President Donald Trump achieved two important victories this week, first in court, and then in a political showdown. Despite bans, indictments, and challenges, Trump is one step away from a showdown with current President Joe Biden, against whom he is polling better.
Sunday was not a good day for Trump, after Washington D.C. favored Nikki Haley in the Republican primaries, his only rival for the party nomination. The former US Ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump administration won 62.86 percent of the vote, and her former boss received 33.22 percent. Haley thus became the first woman to win a Republican primary in the long history of this major American party.
Until the election in the US capital, Trump had won against Haley in all states, including South Carolina, where she was born and served as governor. Despite the loss in Washington, Trump had already secured 244 delegates, and Haley had 24, to which she added 19 after the election. Nevertheless, the results from these elections gave Haley hope that a miracle, which few expected, could happen on "Super Tuesday".
Super Monday - A Decisive Court Victory
But before Tuesday's elections, when fifteen states and one US territory voted, Trump won the most important battle for now – the Supreme Court unanimously ruled in his favor on Monday, effectively revoking states' rights to ban him from participating in the elections.
Specifically, the Supreme Court overturned a December ruling by a Colorado court that had banned Trump from appearing on the ballot, citing his alleged support for the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot. Similar decisions were made in Maine and Illinois, which were put on hold pending the US Supreme Court's decision on the Colorado case.
The nine Supreme Court justices were unanimous in their assessment that the Colorado court's decision was unacceptable and could trigger state-by-state political conflicts, thereby jeopardizing the integrity of democratic elections. In other words, the judges challenged the right of lower courts to decide the outcome of elections in the United States.
Trump commented on this victory before the highest court in the world's leading power on his social media network Truth, where he wrote that it was a "big win for America." Biden's campaign team and the White House stated they had no comment on the verdict.
Super Tuesday - A Decisive Electoral Victory
Following the Supreme Court's ruling on Monday, which was widely anticipated to likely favor Trump, matters returned to the political arena, and it was up to the former US president to definitively defeat Nikki Haley.
Haley never enjoyed widespread popularity among Republican voters outside her home state, but she entered the race as part of a struggle between certain party elites and Trump. In a contest that also involved voters from the rival Democratic Party and major donors, Haley represented the last attempt by some Republicans to prevent Donald Trump from appearing on the ballot in the presidential race representing their party.
Voters were relentless on Super Tuesday, so named because a large number of states and territories vote in primaries that day. They gave Trump a huge lead, sending a message to Republican leadership that he is the most popular politician among American conservatives and right-wingers. Trump secured a decisive victory in almost all states, often receiving multiple times more votes than Haley.
At the same time, Democrats also voted, but the outcome there was more than certain even before the polling stations opened. Biden had no rivals and won all the delegates for the final party convention where his candidacy for the party will be formally confirmed.
Trump's Calculation
The decisive victory in the primaries leaves Donald Trump with an open door for a rematch with Joseph Biden, four years after a record number of Americans went to the polls. However, things are different now and likely more difficult for the former president, even though he enjoys greater support than Biden according to relevant polls.
Specifically, Trump faces indictments that could send him to prison, while in the meantime, he has lost even the little space he had in the mainstream American media. At the same time, outside the media, the list of his enemies is longer than four years ago when he entered the election race as an outsider offering change.
Four years in the White House and numerous changes of his closest associates have shown that Trump did not navigate American political circumstances well, and allies from all over the world were generally dissatisfied with his actions. A significant number of officials do not want another such term.
The conflict with some Republicans, many of whom are influential, could also be a major danger for Trump, as they might sabotage his victories in so-called swing states, i.e., states where voters support different parties from election to election. In these states, elections can be decided by a few thousand votes. This means that any boycott by party structures could be fatal for Trump's campaign. The support Nikki Haley enjoyed in the race for the Republican nomination, even from Democrats, shows that the observation that members of these two parties are actually two wings of one economic and political elite is valid.
Trump will fight to the end, seek new allies, and strengthen existing connections. The support he enjoys from millions of Americans still makes him an opponent that Biden and his team cannot underestimate, while they themselves are struggling with the current president's shortcomings. For Trump to advance to the November elections, he now needs new victories in the courts in the ongoing cases against him.
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